Analysts Expect 8.6% EPS Decline to $4.12 Despite Revenue Growth

The setup for Q3. FedEx Corporation reports fiscal third-quarter 2026 results after the close on March 19, with the earnings call scheduled for 5:30 PM ET. Wall Street consensus estimates for the quarter ending February 28 project EPS of $4.12 on revenue of $23.48 billion. That compares to adjusted EPS of $4.51 and revenue of $22.16 billion in the year-ago quarter, implying an 8.6% earnings decline despite 5.9% revenue growth.

The key questions for this print. Investors will focus on whether FedEx’s DRIVE cost-reduction program is offsetting volume pressure in its Express segment, particularly as e-commerce growth moderates and business-to-business shipments remain soft. The company’s ability to maintain pricing discipline while managing network optimization will be critical. Integration progress following the Federal Express and FedEx Freight segment consolidation announced last year will also draw scrutiny, as will any commentary on peak-season execution and the trajectory of operating margins across both air and ground networks.

Estimates have drifted higher into the print. The current Q3 consensus of $4.12 has climbed from $4.09 seven days ago, $4.05 thirty days ago, and $3.99 sixty days ago. Over the past month, 10 analysts raised estimates while none lowered them. For the full fiscal year 2026, the consensus has risen to $18.67 from $18.62 a week ago and $18.58 a month ago, with 12 upward revisions and 2 downward over the past 30 days.

Wall Street leans cautiously positive. The current analyst consensus shows 2 Strong Buy ratings, 17 Buy, 8 Hold, 2 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell among the 30 analysts covering the stock. That distribution has held steady over the past month, with no material shift in sentiment.

Recent price target activity shows conviction. JP Morgan reiterated its Neutral rating on March 10 but raised its price target to $424 from $294, a 44% increase. Stephens maintained its Overweight rating on February 13 and lifted its target to $405 from $330. TD Cowen kept its Buy rating the same day, raising its target to $383 from $313. Evercore ISI reiterated In-Line on February 24 with a target increase to $380 from $364.

This article was generated using AlphaStreet’s proprietary financial analysis technology and reviewed by our editorial team.