A GOP Revolt – Or Just a Blip on the Radar?

President Donald Trump has always faced stiff opposition from some even in his own party. Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, for example, have been a thorn in his side since day one – as has Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky. This week, however, the president took a beating in Congress, thanks largely in part to a GOP that simply wasn’t unified behind his agenda. The House passed a war powers resolution against him in Iran with four Republican defectors. And while his long-desired ICE and CBP reconciliation bill finally passed in the Senate, it didn’t do so smoothly. Sure, the usual suspects were involved – but they weren’t alone this time.

The Great GOP Revolt?

The four House Republicans who voted in favor of blocking any further military action in Iran on Wednesday – a definite shot across the Trump administration’s bow – were Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Michigan’s Tom Barrett, and Ohio’s Warren Davidson. By siding against their own party and with the full roster of Democrats, these four managed to turn what would have been a minority resolution into successful legislation, despite the GOP majority. In fact, four is precisely the number needed to do so, which raises two interesting questions: Might there have been more Republicans in the lower chamber who, in their hearts, sided with the Democrats on this but didn’t feel it was worth jeopardizing their electoral chances since the four who crossed the aisle were enough? If so, how many?

The even bigger rebellion, if you will, occurred a day later in the Senate. Over the course of almost 20 hours, a total of 14 GOP senators at some point or another voted against the party majority and the Trump administration – whether it was in support of an amendment targeting the reconciliation bill itself or some other item on the Trump agenda or opposing one of two amendments aimed at essentially passing the SAVE Act.

Yes, 14 seems like a long list – but not every senator on it chose the same level of defiance. There were some clear frontrunners for lead turncoat.

Susan Collins (R-ME) voted against the party on a whopping 13 of 24 amendments. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) was the clear second with 11 – 12 if you count her vote against the bill itself in the final roll call. Her fellow Alaskan, Dan Sullivan, came in third with nine amendments, followed closely by Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who each supported eight amendments and introduced one. The only reason Tillis comes out slightly ahead in fourth is that he also refused to vote at all on another amendment.

Jon Husted (R-OH) comes in sixth with six supported amendments, followed closely by Joni Ernst (R-IA) in seventh, who only supported one anti-Trump amendment but failed to vote against five others. Right on her heels in eighth – though some might argue he’s higher due to his defiance being active rather than passive – is Jerry Moran of Kansas with four.

Finally, rounding out the list, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky voted contrary to the party twice, and John Cornyn (R-TX), John Curtis (R-UT), Ashley Moody (R-FL), Mike Rounds (R-SD), and Todd Young (R-IN) each did so once.

Final Act of Defiance by Lame Ducks – Or a Glimpse at the GOP’s Future?

One thing to consider in determining just what this turn of events means for the party moving forward is what exactly these lawmakers have to lose – and how long they’ll be around anyway.

Naturally, all members of the House are up for re-election every two years. That is, unless they aren’t running. Thomas Massie spent this session largely voting against the Trump administration and the GOP majority – and he paid the price for it. Last month, he lost his primary to Trump-backed candidate Ed Gallrein. Whether Gallrein wins or loses in November, Massie won’t be returning in January.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has faced a competitive race against Democrat challenger Bob Harvie, with some polling late last year showing the two tied. Fitzpatrick is one of the few Republicans to have held the district, which voted for Kamala Harris for president, but he has received more than 50% of the vote in the last three elections. Why take this stance against Trump, though, and risk ending his streak by angering the base? Well, it could be a matter of true belief and integrity. Or, it could be last month’s endorsement by the American Federation of Government Employees, the nation’s largest federal employee union. With the president cutting the federal workforce, the union is understandably unfriendly.

Rep. Tom Barrett is embroiled in a tight race for re-election – and he has been putting in the work. As the Detroit Metro Times reported last month, if his mileage reimbursements are accurate, Barrett has put down enough campaign-related miles to circle the globe once with about 7,000 miles left over. His district is considered one of the most competitive in this cycle. Will his vote on Wednesday mean all that hard work was in vain? Ohio’s Warren Davidson’s seat has largely been considered safe, but the six-term lawmaker has been making news this year for doing precisely what he did Wednesday: bucking the party line. He opposed the GENIUS Act while most Republicans backed it and voted against FISA reauthorization. So far, he has opposed his own majority party more than a dozen times.

A look at the Senate paints another picture. Senators Bill Cassidy and John Cornyn just faced embarrassing defeat at the hands of primary challengers. Joni Ernst, Mitch McConnell, and Thom Tillis have all announced their retirements and aren’t running for re-election. Almost half of Thursday’s rebels are lame ducks. They have absolutely nothing to lose and – especially in Cassidy’s and Cornyn’s cases – every reason to buck the party line.

John Curtis won’t face the electorate until 2030, which builds in plenty of time to memory hole this vote, but rumor has it he’s considering a 2028 run for Utah governor. Moran, Murkowski, and Young are all safe until 2028, and so might feel free to push back on the Trump administration. But Sen. Susan Collins is already in danger of losing to controversial Democrat candidate Graham Platner. Jon Husted is actively campaigning for re-election as well, and so is Ashley Moody, who was appointed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis last year to fill a gap. This will be her first actual election for her seat.

Nearly half of these senators are lame ducks – and a few more very well may be sooner rather than later. But four of them – as well as any of those still seeking re-election who win – very well may carry on their anti-Trump defiance into 2027 and beyond. And why not? For anyone who makes it through November, they have nothing to lose any time soon.