Get ready to pay more for your water. A lot more.
In some parts of the U.S., mainly in the West, hotter, drier weather over the next couple of decades due to global warming could lead to a dramatic increase in residential water bills, a new study published July 8 suggests, with some folks seeing as much as a doubling of their monthly charges.
In the study, which appeared in the peer-reviewed British journal Nature Sustainability, researchers from Stanford University found that costly drought-resilience projects, such as desalination and water reuse systems, could push many low-income households into severe water affordability crises.
“Climate change stresses water supplies, and forces utilities to build expensive new infrastructure to maintain reliability,” said study lead author Jennifer Skerker of Stanford University, in a statement.
And according to study co-author Sarah Fletcher, also of Stanford, “climate adaptation and water affordability are on a collision course.”
What Is the Main Point of the Study?
Skerker told USA TODAY that in some water-stressed cities, climate change has the potential to double water bills, because it will require cities to make expensive new infrastructure investments. “This is a problem because many people are already struggling to afford their water bills and this will only worsen with climate change,” she said in an e-mail to USA TODAY.
Currently, water infrastructure in the United States is mainly financed by utilities through increased water rates, she said. “This pits water affordability against reliability, when in reality, we need both.”
Why Would Water Get More Expensive If the Weather Is Hotter and Drier?
Skerker said that if the weather is hotter and drier, water demands in cities would likely increase while water supplies decrease. This could necessitate utilities investing in more alternative supply infrastructure, such as potable reuse, desalination, or even water transfer infrastructure. This infrastructure is expensive, she said.
“Currently, the main path utilities in the US pay for this infrastructure is through increased water rates, which leads to higher water bills for households,” Skerker said.
Water Costs Have Outpaced Inflation
According to the study, the average cost of tap water in the U.S. has increased three times faster than inflation over the past two decades, driven largely by aging infrastructure and deferred maintenance. In addition, climate change is layering a new and poorly understood pressure on top of those existing strains, according to Skerker and her study coauthors.
In one example, the study found that median water bills for the poorest residents of one city (Santa Cruz, California) could rise from around $60 to $111 per month (in today’s dollars) under a drier climate scenario.
Incredibly, the study said that more than 5% of households would have to devote as much as a third of their income to water, likely forcing painful trade-offs with food, healthcare, and other necessities.
Researchers Looked at Santa Cruz
To understand how predicted changes in temperature and rainfall over the next two decades are likely to affect local water supplies and costs, the research team analyzed data from Santa Cruz, California. The small coastal city relies almost entirely on local surface water and a single reservoir.
Is the Issue Specific to the Western US, or Might This Be a National Problem?
“We focus on California and western U.S. cities in identifying other places with characteristics similar to Santa Cruz, mainly because we think this issue is more likely to be exacerbated in water-scarce regions,” Skerker said.
Indeed, the West and Southwest will likely continue to be ground zero for water issues in the U.S., as longer and more intense droughts are predicted in parts of the regions, reducing water availability for cities, agriculture, and ecosystems, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. In addition, federal climate assessments have shown that many watersheds in the West may see decreases in surface-water supplies.
What Is the Solution to the Problem?
“I think there are multiple solutions,” Skerker told USA TODAY via e-mail. “One is more assistance, such as grant and infrastructure financing programs from states and the federal government. Another is a permanent low-income household water assistance program. The federal government started this in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the program has since expired.”
Study co-author Fletcher said in a statement that “ensuring reliable water access for everyone is going to require interventions at the state and federal level that go far beyond what individual utilities can do on their own.”
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate.
