Nvidia earnings call drama: Will Jensen Huang talk ‘Trump’ and China chips after Xi summit?

All eyes are on Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company and artificial intelligence trade darling, as it is set to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell. 

On its conference call, traders on prediction markets platform Kalshi think the company might talk about President Donald Trump after CEO Jensen Huang joined him on his trip to China.

Trump has 50-50 odds of being mentioned on the call, with the chances rising recently. The president wasn’t mentioned on the company’s last earnings call in February. Huang joined Trump for his summit in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Huang’s presence on the trip came as the status of Nvidia’s H200 chip sales in China remains uncertain.

Trump told reporters last week that the chip model didn’t come up in discussions with China, but Reuters reported that the U.S. government gave approval to several Chinese firms to purchase the model. China, though, hasn’t allowed firms to purchase the chip, Trump claimed to reporters.

In January, Trump cleared the way for Chinese purchases of the chip model. That came with a 25% tariff on imports for chips that will be sent to China. There’s a 57% chance the company mentions tariffs on its call on Wednesday.

But after the trip to China, traders place just an 11% chance that Nvidia mentions Taiwan. After the U.S.-China summit, neither country revealed if Trump or Xi discussed Taiwan, which is home to critical chip manufacturers. Traders now only place 15% odds that the company discusses Taiwan Semiconductor Company, down from previously a 78% chance.

And there’s a 55% chance the company will discuss humanoid robots. In his keynote address at the CES Trade Show in January, Huang said he expects to see robots with some human-level capabilities this year. This would be a new feature of the Nvidia calls as that topic didn’t come up in the company’s February earnings call.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.