US Dollar Testing Support Ahead of NFP

Good day, everyone

Markets are relatively stable, with stocks still holding up well, while the is testing support. We have seen some additional pressure on the dollar after US came out below expectations yesterday, and yields also weakened slightly on more dovish following the data.

Today we have the most important US data release, , which was delayed due to the government shutdown. This can certainly move the markets. The math is simple: if job growth comes in below expectations and the rises, that would support the case for further , which would likely push the dollar lower. In that scenario, stocks could stabilize after an initial spike into support. On the other hand, if the data is strong, it would suggest the economy is holding up well, which could trigger a rebound in the dollar, as the Fed may stay on hold rather than cut.

From a wave perspective, the still shows five waves down from the 98 level which s bearish. But we could see a corrective recovery in b-wave, but overall there is room for more weakness toward the 96 area, which aligns with the 78.6% retracement and could be an important level for this week.