Speaking to ET Now, Andrew Freris, CEO, Ecognosis Advisory highlighted the long-term nature of the ongoing conflict and its implications, stating, “I believe this war will last for several months, if not years.” He attributed this to a lack of clear strategic direction, adding, “They have tactics but zero strategy… you never win a war if you don’t know what you are fighting for.” His assessment suggests that prolonged geopolitical tensions are likely to keep markets on edge and drive structural changes across asset classes.
He further pointed out that such conflicts tend to accelerate shifts in global energy markets. Drawing parallels with past developments, he noted, “Europe moved away quickly from dependence on Russian gas, and the same kind of shift is likely again.” At the same time, he dismissed extreme fears around supply disruptions, saying,
“There are many ways to transport oil… the US does not depend on the Strait of Hormuz.” The broader takeaway, according to him, is that diversification of energy sources and supply chains will become increasingly critical.
On sectoral opportunities, Freris made a blunt but realistic observation, stating, “Put more money into defence stocks… they are likely to continue doing very well.”
While acknowledging the ethical concerns around such investments, he added, “It might be immoral, but that is the reality of the world.” His comments reflect a growing trend among investors to consider defence and security-linked companies as part of their portfolios amid rising geopolitical risks.Turning to central banks, Freris expects policymakers to remain cautious despite mounting global uncertainties. “They will not cut interest rates while inflation pressures remain,” he said, emphasizing that inflation continues to be sticky. He added, “It is not going down… it moves around but stays elevated,” indicating that the path to monetary easing may be slower than markets anticipate.On crude oil, which has surged close to the $100 mark, Freris suggested that prices are unlikely to correct sharply in the near term. “It is unlikely we go back to $60 anytime soon,” he said, while also noting that structural adjustments will eventually take place. “It will take time, but alternative routes and systems will develop,” he added, pointing to a gradual normalization rather than an immediate decline.
Taken together, these trends indicate that the global investment landscape is undergoing a meaningful shift. Commodities, particularly oil, are gaining prominence, while defence-linked equities are drawing increased attention. At the same time, central banks remain constrained by inflation, limiting the scope for policy easing. In such an environment, adaptability and diversification are emerging as the defining principles for investors navigating an increasingly complex world.
