Markets saw an extremely volatile session today, with strong declines and sharper rebounds. Sensex and Nifty had opened with some losses in the red, but soon recovered all of them to move into the green. However, the indices then sharply dropped later in the morning, with Sensex falling over 600 points to drop below 74,000 and Nifty 50 declining below 23,000.
Late in the afternoon, Sensex and Nifty rebounded and erased all morning losses. Sensex jumped over 1,000 points and Nifty 50 surged above 23,500. The benchmark indices erased some gains by the end of the session, but still remained in the deep green.
Sensex closed around 939 points higher at 75,502.85, while Nifty 50 gained 258 points to end the session at 23,409.
Top gainers and losers
UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank, Zudio-parent Trent, Zomato-parent Eternal and Bajaj Finance were among the top gainers on Sensex, rising 2-3%. Bharat Electronics (BEL), Sun Pharma, Power Grid and NTPC were among the top losers.Around 1,075 shares advanced on NSE, while 2,213 declined and 84 remained unchanged. Nifty Auto led gains among the sectoral indices, gaining around 2%. Nifty Oil & Gas however led losses, falling over 1.5% as oil prices continued to remain elevated.Indian government confirmed during the weekend that Indian vessels Shivalik and Nanda Devi, carrying a combined 92,700 tonnes of LPG, safely crossed the Strait of Hormuz. In an interview with the Financial Times UK, the External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar stated that New Delhi is currently engaging with Iran to facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.He noted that these discussions are “already yielding some results,” suggesting that India finds it more effective to “reason and coordinate” with Tehran rather than disengage.
“Certainly, from India’s perspective, it is better that we reason and we coordinate and we get a solution than we don’t. While this is a welcome development, there is continuing conversation because there is continued work on that,” Jaishankar said.
As a result, India Vix, which measures volatility in the markets, dropped more than 4% after soaring last week.
Crude impact
Despite the optimism in the markets, some caution is warranted. Oil prices remain significantly elevated, with Brent crude futures rising more than 2% today to trade above $105 per barrel. The war between Iran and US-Israel has entered its third week, leading to prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global trade. The narrow 33 kilometre long waterway connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and carries over 20% of the world’s oil and gas shipments.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that his administration is in talks with seven countries to help secure the Strait of Hormuz amid the hostilities, calling on them to help protect ships in the vital waterway that Tehran has mostly blocked to oil tanker traffic.
“I’m demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory because it is their territory,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on the way from Florida to Washington. “It’s the place from which they get their energy.”
Trump also said Washington is in contact with Iran but expressed doubt that Tehran is prepared for serious negotiations to end the conflict. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi meanwhile said that the country is ready to defend itself for as long as it takes.
Rupee
Indian rupee remained close to its all-time low level, ending the session at around 92.42 against the US dollar. Earlier last week, the Indian currency had seen a significant decline as the safe-haven appeal of the American greenback shines amid geopolitical tensions. Oil movements remain a key driver for the rupee, which tends to widen India’s import bill and weigh on the currency, said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst of Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities said.
Persistent FII selling
FII extended their selling streak for the 11th consecutive session on Friday, net selling Indian equities worth around Rs 68 lakh crore during the period. Foreign investors net sold Indian equities worth Rs 10,717 crore on Friday.
While this doesn’t reflect their trading behaviour today, persistent selling by foreign investors seen for the past several sessions dampens investor sentiment.
Global markets
Global markets remained volatile, with Japan’s Nikkei and China’s Shanghai Composite falling marginally. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and South Korea’s Kospi however gained more than 1% each. European markets were trading in the red in the early hours, with UK’s FTSE and Germany’s DAX slipping into the red with marginal losses, and France’s CAC being down 0.7%.
Wall Street extended their decline on Friday, with Nasdaq declining over 0.9% and S&P 500 falling 0.6%
What lies ahead?
The equity market staged a late-session rebound, supported by value buying in domestically oriented sectors such as auto, banking, and FMCG, a relief rally following the recent sell-off, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments. The analyst however cautioned that near-term challenges persist, valuations have moderated, narrowing the premium valuation gap across several key sectors.
“In the near term, investor sentiment will hinge on developments in the Strait of Hormuz, where any easing of supply chain disruptions could provide further support. However, persistently elevated oil prices continue to weigh on broader market direction. Globally, attention remains focused on the upcoming U.S. Fed policy outcome. Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures and heightened geopolitical uncertainty,” he added.
Technical view
Nifty witnessed a decent recovery as the index did not sustain below 23,000 and quickly moved back above this level, noted Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. The analyst said that on the daily chart, the index has formed a piercing line pattern, which is a bullish reversal signal after a prolonged correction. Although the broader sentiment has not changed significantly, a near-term technical pullback cannot be ruled out, he added.
“On the higher side, the index may witness a recovery towards 23,800 or even higher. On the lower end, immediate support is placed at 23,200; a break below this level could push the index back into weakness,” De concluded.
-1024x683.jpg "Strait Outta Hormuz: Getting the Iran Oil Story Straight")
