Good morning. At a recent CEO dinner in New York, conversation turned to the topic of jobs. 2025 was an underwhelming year for U.S. job growth—adding 584,000 jobs compared to 2 million in 2024—and this year is likely to be more of the same. (Strip out health care and social assistance industries, and the U.S. lost jobs last year.)
But the question being debated was how to talk about possible job cuts in relation to AI. “I’d rather focus on AI than falling demand,” one attendee said. “At least you look ahead of the curve instead of behind it.”
Last year, U.S. employers explicitly blamed AI for 55,000 of the 1.17 million job cuts, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That’s fewer than 5% of layoffs. AI is not yet the bête noire nor the magic elixir that people have made it out to be. (Forgive the mixed metaphors there; proof of a human at the helm.) In August, MIT released a study that found 95% of generative AI pilots fail to generate meaningful return.
And yet we’re all hearing predictions about how AI is going to impact jobs, from gutting knowledge work to creating an army of AI-enhanced humans who will achieve more in 5 hours than most of us do in 5 days. If my dinner conversation is anything to go by, leaders are quite happy to stoke that debate. Here’s why:
It motivates employees. The prospect of AI can spark both fear and fascination. In either case, talking about it externally and internally is a great way to get people motivated to learn about it. The productivity boost, especially in areas like coding, can be significant. Tying it to job cuts is code for telling everyone to learn it.
It can excite investors. UPS stock jumped 8% the day that CEO Carol Tomé announced 48,000 jobs had been cut in “the most significant strategic shift” in company history. Research from the IMF, Deloitte and others confirm that public companies are quicker to resort to layoffs than their private counterparts. “I think it’s too early to quantify,” one dinner attendee told me, “but AI impacts how we think about hiring and firing.”
It focuses the mind. With geopolitical conflicts, tariffs, climate risk and general concerns about the U.S. economy, leaders have a lot of variables to juggle when deciding what to do next. Being on the cusp of a new era of innovation can simplify some of those choices. As one person put it: “I don’t know what’s going to happen in Venezuela but I do know I have to invest in AI.”
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at [email protected]
Top news
Powell under investigation
The U.S. attorney’s office in D.C. has opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell over renovations to the Fed’s headquarters and whether he lied to Congress about the scope of the work. In a response, Powell acknowledged that the Fed had been served subpoenas, questioned the motive, and vowed to continue his job “without political fear or favor.” Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte is reportedly behind the probe; he’s used the usually staid agency to investigate foes of President Donald Trump for mortgage fraud.
Possible U.S. action against Iran
Protests in Iran continued over the weekend, as did the government’s crackdown on demonstrators, with human rights groups reporting that hundreds have been killed in the unrest. The Trump administration is considering how to respond; military, cyber, and economic measures are all on the table. President Trump says Tehran has proposed talks as the administration weighs its options.
Trump targets Exxon
President Trump has threatened to sideline Exxon Mobil on future Venezuela oil projects for “playing too cute.” In a Friday meeting between Trump and oil company executives, Exxon CEO Darren Woods called the Venezuelan market “uninvestable” in its current state, a comment that seemed to draw Trump’s ire.
CEO who laid off employees that rejected AI would do it again
IgniteTech CEO Eric Vaughan laid off almost 80% of his employees two years ago because they wouldn’t adopt AI. He told Fortune it was “extremely difficult” but would do it again.
Tariff removal could boost jobs
In a social media post over the weekend, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi argued that the removal of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs would be “the fastest way to boost the job market.” A decision from the Supreme Court on the legality of the tariffs is expected any day now.
How a cap on credit card rates would play out
President Trump indicated his support for a one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates late last week. Some experts say doing so would soften credit card rewards programs and make accessing credit hard for those with lower credit scores.
The markets
S&P 500 futures were down 0.7% this morning. The last session closed up 0.65%. STOXX Europe 600 was down 0.23% in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down o.o9% in early trading. Japan markets were closed. China’s CSI 300 was up o.65%. The South Korea KOSPI was up 0.84% to reach a record high. India’s NIFTY 50 was up 0.42%. Bitcoin was at $90K.
Around the watercooler
CEO coach to the Fortune 500: The most powerful way to tackle 2026 is assuming you’ll live till 130 by Bill Hoogterp
As U.S. debt soars past $38 trillion, the flood of corporate bonds is a growing threat to the Treasury supply by Jason Ma
AI adoption isn’t an easy way to cut jobs—or easy at all, Wharton professor says: ‘The key thing … is just how much work is involved in doing it’ by Nick Lichtenberg
L’Oreal exec tells Gen Z to be that person who grabs their manager’s coffee—instead of making you look junior, she says it can get you noticed by Orianna Rosa Royle
Netflix’s $82.7 billion rags-to-riches story: How the a DVD-by-mail company swallowed Hollywood by Natalie Jarvey
CEO Daily is compiled and edited by Joey Abrams, Claire Zillman and Lee Clifford.
