NALCO shares zoom 12% in 2 days on strong Q2 earnings, brokerage optimism. What should investors do?

Shares of state-owned National Aluminium Company Ltd (NALCO) surged for the second consecutive session, rising as much as 2.1% on Tuesday to hit a high of Rs 262.90 on the BSE. The stock has gained 12% over the past two trading days, buoyed by strong September quarter earnings and investor optimism following robust financial performance.

NALCO reported a 36.7% year-on-year rise in net profit for the September quarter, reaching Rs 1,430 crore, compared to Rs 1,046 crore in the same period last year. The growth was supported by improved operating efficiency and better realisations. Revenue for the quarter rose 31.5% to Rs 4,292 crore, up from Rs 4,001 crore a year earlier.

EBITDA for the quarter came in at Rs 1,932.9 crore, reflecting a 24.8% increase over the previous year. Operating margins strengthened to 45%, up from 38.7%, highlighting enhanced pricing power and disciplined cost management.

The rally also comes in the backdrop of the company’s recently announced Rs 4 per share interim dividend and a positive outlook for aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange, with expectations of prices averaging around $2,670 per tonne in 2026.

Here is what brokerages are saying:

Axis Securities: Buy| Target price: Rs 265

Axis Securities has maintained a BUY rating on National Aluminium Company Ltd (NALCO), setting a revised target price of Rs 265 per share, up from Rs 220. This revised target implies a potential upside of 13% from the current market price. The brokerage values the company at 6.0x Sep’27E EBITDA and 0.5x book value of capital work in progress (CWIP), with the valuation rolled forward from March 2027.In its outlook, Axis Securities highlighted that NALCO’s timely expansion and ramp-up of the 5th stream Alumina refinery, with a planned capacity addition of 1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) by FY27, will be a key growth driver. The capital expenditure (capex) for this project has already seen cost overruns. Furthermore, NALCO has outlined a capex plan of Rs 30,000 crore for its 0.5 MTPA smelter and 1,080 MW captive power plant (CPP), with capex spending expected to increase from FY28.The success of these projects, according to the brokerage, will depend on timely execution. The company has guided for a capital structure of 70:30 leverage, which will support the expansion plans.

PL Capital: Buy | Target price: Rs 281

PL Capital has maintained a BUY rating on National Aluminium Company Ltd (NACL), with a revised target price of Rs 281 (up from Rs 280).

The brokerage noted that NACL delivered a strong operating performance in Q2FY26, supported by higher alumina inventory liquidation, better metal realisations, and reduced power and fuel costs. Alumina volumes rose 39% year-on-year to 396 kt, while metal volumes fell 7% YoY to 112 kt due to subdued domestic demand during the monsoon.

Alumina Net Sales Realisation (NSR) declined 4% quarter-on-quarter to USD 404/tonne, while metal average realisation rose 5% QoQ to USD 2,938/tonne. The company benefited from cost tailwinds driven by lower employee expenses, reduced fuel costs, and higher output from captive coal mines. Management reiterated the commissioning timeline for its 1 MTPA alumina refinery and Pottangi bauxite mine by June 2026, which is expected to boost volumes starting FY27.

PL Capital also highlighted that captive coal mines are ramping up well and are expected to meet 57% of NACL’s coal requirement. While the company has made structural improvements in cost efficiencies through captive resources, the brokerage flagged near-term weakness in volume growth due to project execution delays.

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Emkay Global Financial Services: Buy | Target price: Rs 270

Emkay Global Financial Services has upgraded NALCO to a Buy from Add and raised its target price by 13% to Rs 270 (from Rs 240). This revision is based on five key factors: a net cash balance sheet enabling hedge-free exposure to the aluminium cycle, 50% of alumina being sold through long-term contracts linked to LME, structural cost improvements resulting in strong alumina and aluminium margins, low consensus estimates suggesting room for upward revisions, and attractive valuations. Although delays in the 1mt alumina project remain a concern, NALCO delivered a strong Q2 EBITDA of Rs 19.3 billion (+29% QoQ), beating Emkay and consensus estimates by 28–30%, supported by lower caustic soda costs and higher volumes.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)