If you can afford a mortgage rate around 6%, this winter has been a great time to shop for a home loan. It’s not a huge dip, but mortgage interest rates are lower today.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 5.94% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is eight basis points lower than yesterday and two basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Though this wasn’t much of a move, if you’re shopping for a home or thinking about refinancing, this might be a sign to start following rates a bit more closely. Even if rates aren’t necessarily going down each day, you might feel more ready to make your move if the overall trend remains steady.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
📉 When will mortgage rates drop?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
It’s a big week for the Nerds, with multiple reports dropping that will give a pulse check on inflation, employment and home sales.
First up is the jobs report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning. It was supposed to come out last week, but was delayed due to the partial government shutdown. The data show a stronger-than-expected labor market, with employers adding 130,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate improving slightly to 4.3%. When unemployment improves, the Fed is less likely to cut interest rates to encourage hiring.
Tomorrow, the National Association of Realtors will release its existing home sales report for January. This will give us a window into sales volume, pricing and inventory — all things that affect buyers’ ability to get a home.
Finally, on Friday, BLS will put out the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation across goods and services. When inflation trends above the Fed’s target rate of 2%, central bankers are less likely to cut interest rates. However, while CPI data is important for the markets, it’s not the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. That would be the Personal Consumption Expenditures Report (PCE), which isn’t scheduled to come out until next Friday, Feb. 20.
🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.44% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
Location and property type
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
