The week was characterized by an intense flow of news, both in terms of global macro pricing and the internal dynamics of the crypto market. The market rapidly repriced the expectations, while on the institutional side, ETF outflows and inflows competed with each other in a contradictory picture. On social media, sentiment fell to extreme fear levels, accompanied by a search for a bottom on the technical chart. This complex outlook has led Bitcoin to seek equilibrium in the short term and determine its direction in the medium term.
Macro Front: Fed Wind Turns Back in Favor of Bitcoin
The most important macro development of the week was the dovish statements from Fed members. The probability of a rate cut in December increased from 30% to 85% in a short period of time, providing significant relief to risky assets and allowing Bitcoin to recover from the region it held after the sharp downturn.
Until mid-November, the Fed’s “wait-and-see” approach and tight stance disrupted the data flow due to the government shutdown; macro uncertainty limited risk appetite. During this period, Bitcoin retreated to the $80,000 band and tested six-month lows. However, with the government reopening, supportive critical data in the U.S., and a softening tone from the Fed, market stress eased. As a reflection of this, Bitcoin showed signs of a meaningful respite and a search for a bottom within the downtrend throughout the week.
Corporate Front: A Contradictory Picture of Outflows Competing with Inflows
A week of increased volatility was observed on the institutional front. According to CoinShares data, there were $1.94 billion in outflows from crypto investment products last week alone, $1.27 billion of which came from Bitcoin funds. The daily outflow of $523 million from BlackRock’s IBIT ETF clearly demonstrated institutional investors’ reflex to reduce risk during downturns.
However, in the second half of the week, the picture reversed, and spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $238 million in a single day. The new $108 million investment in Fidelity’s ETF indicated that institutional interest remains alive even during a correction.
Meanwhile, Strategy made an aggressive move at the bottom by purchasing another 8,178 BTC. While this suggests that some major players are using volatile periods as opportunities to accumulate, on-chain data showing that long-term investor wallets sold in bulk during the same period also highlights that the market remains undecided about short-term direction. The dissolution of approximately 800,000 BTC from long-term wallets in recent weeks is one of the clearest indicators of this contradictory structure.
Community Sentiment: Fear Peaks, Expectations Plummet
Bitcoin’s sharp retreat to the $80,000 level triggered a wave of panic on social media. The tone of posts on X and Reddit shifted away from the $150,000–$200,000 price targets frequently mentioned in previous weeks and turned toward the question, “Is a bear market coming?”. Fear and risk-appetite indexes dipped into the 20s, further highlighting the extent of sentiment deterioration.
Santiment data shows that this bearish period produced one of the most negative sentiment spikes in the last six months. According to the on-chain data provider, the ratio of positive to negative comments has fallen to levels similar to previous lows. While some analysts interpret this extreme fear as a phase of “emotional market cleansing,” which is common historically, some long-term investors argue that this sharp decline could be the last major opportunity.
Bitcoin Technical Outlook
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows that the OBO (Shoulder-Head-Shoulder) pattern, which became evident during the recent decline, has completed, and the price retreated toward both the OBO target zone and the Fib 0.786 ($85,260) support, forming a strong bottom in this region. With the reaction buying from this area, the price soon recovered to $90,987 at Fib 0.144, which began to be monitored based on the latest downward momentum.
However, it appears that this recovery has not yet matured. Although the rebound is strong, the main trend remains downward. The short-term exponential moving average sequence clearly shows that the downtrend is being maintained.
Breaking the downtrend will require a move above $91,000 to $94,700 and then above $100,000, with persistence at those levels.
Unless these levels are breached, BTC’s rallies are more likely to be reactionary moves within a bearish phase rather than a “trend reversal.” The fact that the Stochastic RSI has approached the overbought zone also suggests that the loss of momentum may increase in the short term.
On the downside, the most critical threshold continues to be the $85,250 level. Daily closes below this zone may push the price back toward the main support area in the $75,000–$78,000 band.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.
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