Portfolio managers, analysts, and financial advisors face a tough call when sharp volatility and rising geopolitical uncertainty upend markets. They ask: Do I adjust course, reduce risk, or buy the dip?
While the instinct is often to reduce risk, traditional financial theory suggests that investors should be rewarded for embracing uncertainty and remaining patient. However, theory and practice don’t always align, especially in high-stakes decisions.
Market practitioners often turn to two widely used indicators to guide their choices: the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU). However, understanding the type of uncertainty you’re dealing with is critical, as misreading these signals can be costly.
The VIX and EPU are frequently treated as interchangeable stress signals. They shouldn’t be. The VIX reflects market fear, while EPU tracks broader policy rifts. Confusing the two can lead to systematic mistakes, either being overly cautious when policy uncertainty is high, but markets are calm, or not reacting swiftly when genuine fear sets in. Misinterpreting these indicators can result in poor timing and missed opportunities, ultimately impacting returns.
The key question to ask is whether uncertainty stems from market fear or broader policy confusion, each carrying distinct implications for risk, timing, and portfolio positioning. Analysis of 35 years of data shows that the VIX and EPU capture different dimensions of unpredictability, with important consequences for portfolio risk.
To explore how these differences play out in practice, I examine how each indicator predicts forward equity returns across five distinct regimes.
-1024x683.jpg "Strait Outta Hormuz: Getting the Iran Oil Story Straight")
