Gold has now fallen below $4,000 an ounce for the first time since November 2025, and suddenly everyone is proclaiming the bull market is dead. On June 24, spot gold fell to an intraday low of approximately $3,973.79, breaking below the $4,000 level for the first time in seven months. On June 25, gold remained under pressure, trading around $3,982.49. From its January record high near $5,595 an ounce, gold has now declined more than 28%, approaching the 30% correction our computer models had been pointing toward. Markets move in cycles, not straight lines. A correction of this magnitude frightens the late buyers into dumping their positions at precisely the time our computer indicated this washout would unfold.
During my latest interview with Mining, I warned that gold had become extremely overextended and that a major correction into this time period should surprise no one. I also explained that simply replacing the Federal Reserve chairman would not magically produce lower interest rates if inflation continued to accelerate. The market is now beginning to recognize that reality. Expectations for tighter monetary policy under Kevin Warsh, a stronger U.S. dollar, and reduced fears of an immediate Middle East escalation combined to create the perfect environment for a sharp liquidation.
What most analysts continue to miss is that a correction does not automatically signal the end of a secular bull market. The sovereign debt crisis has not disappeared. Europe’s financial problems have not been solved. Governments everywhere continue borrowing at unsustainable levels while geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Capital moves in waves, and violent corrections are a normal feature of every major bull market. During periods of international uncertainty, it is entirely possible for both gold and the U.S. dollar to strengthen together as capital flees political instability and sovereign debt risk around the world. Those who mistake a cyclical correction for the end of the trend usually discover they sold at exactly the wrong time.
This is why relying on opinion is so dangerous. The computer has no emotion, no political bias, and no personal agenda. It follows the movement of global capital. While everyone was chasing gold near $5,600 in January, the models warned that a significant correction was approaching. Now that fear has returned and commentators are declaring the bull market over after a decline to roughly $3,975, the majority is once again reacting emotionally instead of understanding the cycle. Markets rarely reward the majority. They reward those who recognize the trend beneath the volatility.
