History shows that war rarely breaks out in times of widespread prosperity (fat & happy). When economic conditions deteriorate, civil unrest, revolution, and international conflict tend to follow. This isn’t a matter of opinion, it’s a pattern observable across centuries of global history. As economies contract, public frustration mounts, and long-simmering grievances resurface with explosive force. We are now entering a period of major global realignment, with 2032 marking a critical turning point. By 2028, the rising tide of conflicts will become unmistakable.
The historical precedent of the post-9/11 security expansion, is on the minds of some unelected bureaucrats. An attack inside the USA by Hezbollah of some sleep-cell if they were to explode a serious bomb in the USA would change everything for the Midterms. Homeland Security and ICE did not exist prior ot the World Trade Center attack 911.
The Paradigm Shift: From Reactive to Preemptive
Prior to September 11th, 2001, which took place precisely on our model to the very day, the concept of a domestic intelligence agency focused on counterterrorism, such as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), did not exist in its current form. The attack acted as a catalyst, enabling the rapid consolidation of 22 federal agencies into a single department and expanding surveillance powers (e.g., the Patriot Act) that had previously been politically untenable.
A serious bomb detonation attributed to Hezbollah or some Iranian sleeper-cell would likely have a similar effect, but with a different focus. Unlike the aviation-centric attacks of 9/11, a radiological attack implies a failure to interdict materials and domestic cells rather than just hijackers. We already have some in government insisting that terrorist entered the USA under Biden’s Open Border’s Policy. Such ab incident would likely be framed as a failure of the current “defensive” posture, shifting policy towards a “preemptive” posture. It would be used to track everyone and that could result in biometrics.
Drawing from historical patterns, the bureaucratic and political response would likely pivot from failure to “necessary” expansion. The opportunity set would likely bring to the surface DHS currently operates fusion centers. Post-event, we would likely see a significant increase in funding to expand these centers to include real-time environmental monitoring data, linking health reports, weather patterns, and travel data to detect anomalies.
The “Traveler” vs. “Citizen” Distinction:
The Patriot Act lowered the barriers for surveillance of foreign nationals. A Hezbollah serious bomb or biological event could likely be used to justify expanded surveillance of U.S. citizens. The FBI and DHS would likely need to expand their Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTFs) significantly.
The Economic and Systemic Impact
From a modeling perspective, any sort of domestic attack by some sleeper-cell would at first create a brief correct in the market as everything readjusts and regroups.
NATO DIVISION:
Meanwhile, the Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, gave an interview on the CNN Türk broadcaster, in which he said Israel’s politics and mindset had “become a burden that humanity can no longer bear.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected Vice President JD Vance who warned him to avoid angering the United States, saying any wrenches thrown into a peace deal between the US and Iran by Israel risked losing the support of the “only powerful ally that [they] have anywhere left in the entire world.”
When the War Cycle turned on May 8th, 2025, Amnesty International urgently called on the Israeli government to abandon plans for expanded military operations that included annexing territory and forcibly displacing Palestinians in Gaza. The organization stated these actions would “gravely violate international law“.
Furthermore, tensions with the Trump Administration surfaced. According to Israeli media citing sources close to U.S. President Donald Trump, there was growing frustration with Prime Minister Netanyahu. The sources indicated that Trump felt “disappointment” with Netanyahu and had decided to proceed with steps in the Middle East, potentially related to normalization with Saudi Arabia, without waiting for Israel’s cooperation.
That May 8th, 2025 turn in the war cycle was critical. Netanyahu’s appearance in the White House Situation Room to sell this war with Iran was in February 2025. The United States bombed Iranian nuclear facilities with bunker buster bombs on June 22nd, 2025. This operation, which involved the use of GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs, was codenamed “Operation Midnight Hammer.”
Israel and Iran have a long history of operating in the “grey zone” – involving targeted killings of nuclear scientists and military commanders, as well as cyberattacks. These operations often occur alongside or in the periods surrounding overt military actions.
Iran’s top officials and brothers of the new supreme leader did emerge into public view Sunday to attend funeral prayers for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Their appearance signaled confidence in their safety. I believe that Trump warned Netanyahu he better not attack the funeral and to stand-down.
With the ECM Turning Point taking effect on July 1st, we can anticipate increased political instability. Ukrainian President Zelensky appears to be acting recklessly, seemingly attempting to provoke a direct Russian-NATO confrontation. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has officially reclassified its stance: what was once described as a “special operation” to protect the Donbas has now escalated, with Russia declaring itself to be in a state of war with Ukraine.
