[Today’s Iran war update has posted before finished, as has become a too-regular practice. Please come back or refresh this page at 8:00 AM EDT for a final version]
There was some hope yesterday after Vladimir Putin called Donald Trump to give an unusually explicit warning against attacking Iran again. The money quote from the statement-in-lieu-of-a-readout by Putin’s aide Yury Ushakov:
At the same time, the President of Russia pointed out that if the United States and Israel resume military action, this would inevitably lead to extremely adverse consequences not only for Iran and its neighbours, but for the entire international community. He stressed that a ground operation on Iranian territory would be particularly unacceptable and dangerous.
Even with that intervention, plus a Putin call to Netanyahu, we thought that Trump was unlikely to save himself from his own worst instincts, of needing always to seem to dominate, which means to keep initiating action, even when a retreat or merely standing pat is the better approach. Douglas Macgregor (who recall has worked directly with Trump) seemed to have the best hot take: that Netanyahu was now in the position of controlling the US military and would not give it up. Macgregor left unsaid the point that others have made, that Israel is not operating rationally but is driven by in Alastair Crooke’s reading eschatological and existential impulses, or if you prefer Alon Mizrahi, by an insatiable need to dominate (which puts them in synch with Trump).
Fresh statements by Trump show him moving away from a weak preference for letting the blockade do its US-presumed damage to Iran’s oil fields (via forcing production shutdowns) to signaling a preference for resuming the fight.
NO1’s lead item today showed Trump signaling an inclination to take another shot at Iran:
CENTCOM briefs Trump on “final blow” against Iran — Fox News reports a 45-minute briefing on remaining military assets, leadership, and infrastructure targets. Trump later tells press: “maybe we’re better off not making a deal at all”. Iran’s latest proposal to Pakistani mediators was rejected by Trump as “not getting there”….
Trump’s rhetoric escalated sharply Friday: “maybe better off not making a deal,” “we’re like pirates” on seized tankers, and calling affordability concerns “a line of bullshit“
Breaking Points similarly highlighted that US weapons deliveries to the theater continue at a high pace, in NEW ATTACK IMMINENT? Israel Recievies Tons New Munitions.
And from Larry Johnson:
I think that Trump will order a new attack on Iran in the coming days. There has been a massive movement of US military aircraft into West Asia during the past 10 days. They are carrying supplies of missiles and bombs and additional army and navy personnel. The US military is locked-and-loaded to execute new missions if ordered to do so by President Trump.
CENTCOM Commander Admiral Cooper, along with the General commanding aviation assets and the Admiral commanding maritime assets, have updated plans for a renewed air campaign. They also, in response to an order from Donald Trump, prepared options for taking Kharg Island and/or Qemsh Island, and options for a raid on an Iranian nuclear site.
Iran also believes the war is about to resume:
Iranian military warns war is ‘likely’ after Trump rejects latest peace proposal——A senior commander in Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya central command center, Mohammed Jafar Asadi, warned today that a return to active combat with the US and Israel is “likely” following the collapse of… pic.twitter.com/VXG9fRSYVe
— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) May 2, 2026
The Iranian reservations are fully warranted:
Top Pakistani senator labels Israel a ‘saboteur’ of peace while delivering Tehran’s proposal to Washington——Agha Shahzaib Durrani, Chairman of the Pakistani Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee, has underscored Pakistan’s strategic priority to halt the US–Israeli war on Iran… pic.twitter.com/SWMCSjFEAc
— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) May 2, 2026
Hiring a FDD staffer onto your team strongly suggests that reaching a diplomatic deal is not Trump’s objective… https://t.co/YO6xLDHx1d
— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) May 1, 2026
Aljazeera provided an assessment of the continuing negotiation impasse. Iran has made a new proposal, but from what I can tell, it is procedural, not substantive. The Wall Street Journal makes much of Iran being willing to talk at all after earlier making the ending of the US blockage a precondition However, Iran wants to deal with the Strait of Hormuz/ceasefire issues first, then address the nuclear enrichment matter. As Aaron Mate stated, and Aljazeera confirms, the Iranian position is that that JCPOA process showed that it will take years to reach an agreement over nuclear enrichment, and so it makes sense to deal with that separately to make it possible to restore some degree of normalcy in Strait of Hormuz transits sooner rather than later.
Trump has non-specifically harrumphed about the new Iran plan. One can imagine that he refuses to believe that negotiating any deal will take all that much time, and that the Iran argument is simply a bad faith ploy to refuse to address the nuclear enrichment idea at all.
The reality is that all this talk over talks is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Iran is now saying in unvarnished terms that it will not let the US push it around in negotiations:
From the remarks by Iran’s Chief Justice, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, in the segment above:
An enemy that has not achieved any of its goals and objectives through aggression and threats cannot impose its will or make excessive demands of the negotiating table. This is our establishment’s decisive and dominant position, and we all stress, under the guidelines of the leader of the Islamic Revolution, that our diplomacy is in line with the field. We do not welcome a war, but we are not afraid of it.
We said from the outset that this war will be a test to destruction. Iran will not concede control of the Strait of Hormuz. At most, it might cut other countries in on its toll-gathering. It will insist on reparations, although could conceivably treat the tolls as an alternative mechanism. It will not back down on the US having to remove its bases from the Middle East. That position is not as extreme as it seems, given that even Russia cannot credibly provide a security guarantee. Russia does not have much of a navy. Russia does not have forces in theater. Iran’s hostile geography and its deep bunkering of weapons is as good a guarantee of safety as any third party could provide. Russia is no about to deploy nukes to defend any country other than Russia.
Security guarantees mean squat when confronted with a rogue power with a blue water navy and many forces stationed across the world like the US. The fact that the US routinely breaks treaties means that any commitment, including its own security commitment, is meaningless.
The only country that could credibly provide them is China, and then not militarily but economically. China could be explicitly authorized to drop much more damaging economic hammers on the US than it has deployed before, like cutting off all drugs and drug inputs, and ascorbic acid. But that is way out of paradigm for how security guarantees are seen as operating.
Mind you, we suggested that Iran might be coming to regard it as sub-optimal to always be reacting to Trump. While their new proposal over negotiation sequencing might be seem as an attempt to assert greater control over events, our belief remains that the negotiations are mere theater. Iran has been saber-rattling that it might take direct action against the blockade, and even the Wall Street Journal has taken notice:
Iranian officials said Tehran could use previously unused weapons to attack U.S. warships, from submarines to mine-carrying dolphins. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened to step up escalation by cutting phone cables in the Strait of Hormuz, which would disrupt internet traffic globally.
We beg to differ with the widespread view among alternative media commentators that the blockade is ineffective. It only has to work just barely in order to deter most commercial vessel operators. So even this very crappy blockade will suffice for US purposes. Mind you, it does not seem credible that Iranian oil fields are at any near-term risk. However, China and the Global South bear ever-rising costs as long as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a trickle, and Iran no doubt would like to collect its tolls and get on with rebuilding its damaged infrastructure sooner rather than later.
The US is also trying to make the blockade less leaky:
U.S. blockade on Iran
A U.S. Air Force KC-46A Pegasus tanker operating from Prince Sultan AB in KSA is now active over the Gulf of Oman.
Meanwhile, a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon MPA is en route to Djibouti after completing an ISR mission over the Arabian Sea. pic.twitter.com/uioKXGneDA
— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) May 2, 2026
With kinetic action momentarily more or less on hold, political wrangling has become more prominent. We’ll largely skip over it because it is too painful in terms of what it reveals about the US sham democracy, but the Administration has been taking shamelessly bogus positions to justify continuing the conflict beyond the 60 days allowed in the War Powers Act….except that did not allow the Trump Administration to attack Iran:
Some of my colleagues keep pointing to the 60-day clock in the War Powers Act as cover for this war.
Either they haven’t read the law or they’re hoping you haven’t. The 60-day emergency provision exists for one situation: if the United States is attacked. Iran didn’t attack us,… pic.twitter.com/ncnjb7YR75
— Rep. Mike Levin (@RepMikeLevin) April 21, 2026
The debate, which included some typically testy remarks by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the 60 days (as in Trump trying to say the ceasefire stopped the clock) is also a red herring. The 60 days starts with the commencement of action.1
The hearing also opened up an overdue discussion of the cost of the war. From Aljazeera:
The Pentagon told a hearing of the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday that the US had spent $25bn on its war on Iran, largely on munitions and equipment maintenance.
But Democratic leaders and several economists believe that number to be a significant underestimate. They say the actual cost to the US economy and the country’s 330 million people could amount to between $630bn and $1 trillion.
Note that the Pentagon $25 billion figure of weapons cost is clearly too light and omits important direct overheads, such as related VA expenses.
CNN has just reported on damage to US bases in the Middle East:
Recall that this follows an NBC account last week. This cat is most assuredly out of the bag:
Take a close look at this.
NBC News published a major investigation this afternoon. Six reporters. Six named sources inside the US government. The story breaks open something the Trump administration has been hiding for two months.
The damage Iran did to American military bases… pic.twitter.com/aZwKw6WhF0
— Brian Allen (@allenanalysis) April 25, 2026
The New York Times Editorial Board also cleared its throat about on the US’ big ticket, underperforming military:
On paper, the war in Iran should not be much of a contest. The United States spends around $1 trillion a year on its military, more than 100 times as much as Iran…
Somehow, the weaker nation is in the stronger negotiating position.
That reality exposes the vulnerabilities in the American way of war. Tactical success has not yielded victory. Mr. Trump’s recklessness in conducting the war is one reason. But the problem is bigger than any single commander in chief. The United States has left itself unprepared for modern war.
America has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on ships and planes that are good at defeating competitors’ ships and planes but ineffective against cheaper, mass-produced weapons. The American economy does not have the industrial capacity to produce enough of the weapons and equipment it does need. And the country has struggled to fix these problems because of a sclerotic government and a consolidated defense industry that resists change.
The article admittedly then self-discredits by arguing that the US just needs to close the drone gap to restore its primacy. But at least this is a big step in the direction of reality.
As for Israel and Lebanon, Israel has taken a beating even with successfully wrecking Southern Lebanon. From a couple of days ago, but still germane:
And in a tacit admission that the only effective military in Lebanon is Hezbollah, ergo the US has to help the Lebanese government create one to subdue Hezbollah. Good luck with that. Yes, this is a cover to send in little green men and mercs, but will that suffice From The Cradle in White House weighs plan to train ‘vetted’ Lebanese army units to ‘go after’ Hezbollah:
Washington is floating a plan to train “vetted” units of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to disarm Hezbollah, according to comments made by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on 28 April.
“We’re working towards establishing, is a system that actually works, where vetted units within the Lebanese Armed Forces have the training, the equipment, and the capability to go after elements of Hezbollah and dismantle them,” Rubio told Fox News…
The US has been pushing the Lebanese state into entering a direct confrontation with Hezbollah since the end of the previous war and the start of a 15-month period of non-stop Israeli violations.
Lebanon food crisis likely even with IDF losing the ‘ceasefire”:
And Israel continues to engage in wanton destruction:
BREAKING | Israeli forces have detonated the historic Shamaa Castle and the shrine of Shamoun al-Safa (St. Peter) in south Lebanon, destroying the UNESCO-protected sites alongside an airstrike on Froun. This follows local reports of multiple deaths in Haboush within the last…
— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) May 1, 2026
And briefly on the economic front:
A CBS News poll finds that over 70% of Americans say they are having difficulty affording essentials like food, housing, and health care.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) May 1, 2026
Key insight here regarding the time it might take to fix global inventories following the reopening of the #straithormuz #IranWar https://t.co/uVGX0ylW1u
— Christine Guerrero (@SheDrills) May 1, 2026
Jet fuel exports on water are in free fall
People might think of going on holiday as a luxury, but the whole travel and tourism industry is dependent on it
– Travel and tourism account for 10% of global GDP– 60% of global tourists travel by air– 1/3 of world trade by value is… pic.twitter.com/FlSpENPQm1
— Lukas Ekwueme (@ekwufinance) May 2, 2026
Finally, we feel compelled to keep hammering on an issue that is getting way too little mainstream and independent media attention, that of the impact of the just-about-to-start Super El Niño, which experts agree will be really really bad:
The strongest El Niño in 150 years?That’s not hype, it’s the actual median forecast right now for the developing event later this year.It could rival — or even surpass — the legendary 1877 El Niño, the strongest on record, which was linked to widespread drought, monsoon… pic.twitter.com/4gghkLF8mT
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) April 29, 2026
If you click through and read the entire tweet, the only sort-of mediating factor is that global warming means this El Niño is coming off a higher heat baseline, so the incremental effects may not be as terrible as 150 years ago.
We have warned readers that this El Niño coming on top of the fertilizer shortage will magnify its effect. The usual way to reduce the yield reduction of a strong El Niño, which comes from both unduly dry soil and (perversely elsewhere) excessive rains is to apply extra fertilizer.
And the last severe El Niño produced famine on a large-scale basis. From the Journal of Climate in Climate and the Global Famine of 1876-78:
From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, caused widespread crop failures, catalyzing the so-called Global Famine, which had fatalities exceeding 50 million people and long-lasting societal consequences. Observations, paleoclimate reconstructions, and climate model simulations are used 1) to demonstrate the severity and characterize the evolution of drought across different regions, and 2) to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving its multiyear persistence. Severe or record-setting droughts occurred on continents in both hemispheres and in multiple seasons, with the “Monsoon Asia” region being the hardest hit, experiencing the single most intense and the second most expansive drought in the last 800 years. The extreme severity, duration, and extent of this global event is associated with an extraordinary combination of preceding cool tropical Pacific conditions (1870-76), a record-breaking El Nino (1877-78), a record strong Indian Ocean dipole (1877), and record warm North Atlantic Ocean (1878) conditions. Composites of historical analogs and two sets of ensemble simulations – one forced with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and another forced with tropical Pacific SST – were used to distinguish the role of the extreme conditions in different ocean basins. While the drought in most regions was largely driven by the tropical Pacific SST conditions, an extreme positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole and warm North Atlantic SSTs, both likely aided by the strong El Nino in 1877-78, intensified and prolonged droughts in Australia and Brazil, respectively, and extended the impact to northern and southeastern Africa. Climatic conditions that caused the Great Drought and Global Famine arose from natural variability, and their recurrence, with hydrological impacts intensified by global warming, could again potentially undermine global food security.
So again, we urge you to do what you can to get in front of the coming food supply shock.
All for today. See you tomorrow!
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1 I have reservations about some of the commentary, but this segment does show, if you have the stomach for that sort of thing, key moments from Hegseth’s recent appearance before the House Armed Services Committee:
