By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Patient readers, this Water Cooler has just a little something in most categories, except for the Covid charts, where there are numerous updates (including a whole new variant, KP.2). Now I need to hustle along and finish up a post on the Gaza encampments. –lambert
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Bird Song of the Day
American Robin, Muskoka, Ontario, Canada.
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Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
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Biden Administration
2024
Less than a year to go!
★RCP Poll Averages, April 26:
National results are still moving Biden’s way. But all the Swing States (more here) are moving Trump’s way, although in tiny increments. It’s hard to attribute this consistency to mere chance. “All” with one exception: Pennsylvania. If Susie Wiles is such a brain genius, why isn’t she fixing this?
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“‘A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’: can Allan Lichtman predict the 2024 election?” [Guardian]. Only in August. Lichtman’s well-deservedly famous keys. Readers may care to review:
They came up with 13 true/false questions and a decision rule: if six or more keys went against the White House party, it would lose. If fewer than six went against it, it would win. These are the 13 keys, as summarised by [American University’s] website:
1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
More on Lichtman:
He is likely to make his pronouncement on the 2024 presidential election in early August. He notes that Biden already has the incumbency key in his favour and, having crushed token challengers in the Democratic primary, has the contest key too. “That’s two keys off the top. That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”
• With Biden, a lot can go wrong. “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up.” —Obama
Republican Funhouse
“Kristi Noem defends dog slaying as ‘responsible’” [Politico]. “The story of Noem shooting and killing her 14-month-old puppy has taken a toll on the potential VP pick’s public image.” • See NC from 2012: “Animal Crackers.”
Pandemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
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Prevention
“Can Neosporin Protect You From Getting COVID-19?” [Time]. N=12. “A small study recently published in PNAS presents a similar, if lower-tech, idea. Coating the inside of the nose with the over-the-counter antibiotic ointment Neosporin seems to trigger an immune response that may help the body repel respiratory viruses like those that cause COVID-19 and the flu, the study suggests. The research raises the idea that Neosporin could serve as an ‘extra layer’ of protection against respiratory illnesses, on top of existing tools like vaccines and masks, says study co-author Akiko Iwasaki, an immunobiologist at the Yale School of Medicine and one of the U.S.’ leading nasal vaccine researchers. The study builds upon some of Iwasaki’s prior research—which has shown that similar antibiotics can trigger potentially protective immune changes in the body—but it’s still preliminary, she cautions. For the new study, her team had 12 people apply Neosporin inside their nostrils twice a day for a week, while another seven people used Vaseline for comparison. At several points during the study, the researchers swabbed the participants’ noses and ran PCR tests to see what was going on inside. They found that Neosporin—and specifically one of its active ingredients, the antibiotic neomycin sulfate—seems to stimulate receptors in the nose that ‘are fooled into thinking there’s a viral infection’ and in turn create ‘a barrier that’s put up against any virus,’ Iwasaki explains. In theory, she says, that means it could protect against a range of different infections.” • Vaseline was the placebo. Seems like a low-cost high-gain no-brainer (modulo issues with antibiotic stewardship).
“NoriZite™ Nasal Spray” (advertisement) [Birmingham Biotech]. “The formula has been engineered to “plume” rather than “jet” when applied with a typical nasal spray applicator, offering more than 6x the coverage of standard sprays against airborne virus particles, allergens, pollen, dust, and more. Iota-Carrageenan (a natural polymer derived from red seaweed) & Gellan gum (a polysaccharide gel that coats & retains virus, so they do not go further down the respiratory tract).” • “Gumming up the works” with Iota-Carrageenan is a tenable mechanism, used by others. What interests me is that products like this are still coming out (note worldwide distribution). Must be a demand for them. For some reason.
Elite Maleficence
At this point, the insistence on handwashing seems almost Freudian (“All the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand”):
🚨The more they talk about handwashing being ‘critically important’ the more they distract you from the fact that these viruses are caught mostly by inhalation of airborne particles.⏬You can decide for yourself if this is malice or incompetence, or incompetent malice. https://t.co/k0UZFnHZWN pic.twitter.com/pCFkDR4lsc
— tern (@1goodtern) April 29, 2024
Then again, both WHO and CDC have entire departments devoted to handwashing. So there’s that.
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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out at a level far above valleys under Trump. Not a great victory. Note also the area “under the curve,” besides looking at peaks. That area is larger under Biden than under Trump, and it seems to be rising steadily if unevenly.
[2] (Biobot) No backward revisons….
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.2 has entered the chat, at least in the model. As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.” Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell.
[4] (ER) CDC seems to have killed this off, since the link is broken, I think in favor of this thing. I will try to confirm. UPDATE Yes, leave it to CDC to kill a page, and then announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC should explain where to go to get equivalent data, if any. I liked the ER data, because it seemed really hard to game.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flattening out to a non-zero baseline. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it looks like “endemicity,” but to me it looks like another tranche of lethality.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Still down. “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Slight uptrend.
[9] (Travelers: Posivitity) Uptick.
[10] (Travelers: Variants) JN.1 dominates utterly. And no mention of KP.2
[11] Looks like the Times isn’t reporting death data any more? Maybe I need to go back to The Economist….
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas held relatively steady.”
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Manufacturing: “Boeing: Dead whistleblower warned of safety breaches” [BBC]. “The transcript of Mr Barnett’s deposition has now been released by his lawyers. The lengthy document runs to more than 140 pages…. Mr Barnett’s lawsuit is expected to continue. It will be taken forward by his mother Vicky Stokes and his brother Rodney Barnett as representatives of his estate. The case is now expected to go to trial in September.” • Good.
Manufacturing: “Boeing’s Cash Goal Is $10 Billion in Dead Weight” [Bloomberg]. “[Soon-to-be-ex-CEO] Calhoun worked at GE for nearly three decades, and his refusal to back down from Boeing’s cash flow target is reminiscent of the can-kicking by another GE CEO, Jeff Immelt, on a much maligned pledge to generate $2 in earnings per share in 2018. That forecast looked out of reach by 2016 as plunging crude prices pressured GE’s oil and gas operations and industrial demand more broadly, but Immelt held onto the target anyway, saying the company could make up for the shortfall with cost cuts and share buybacks. The amount of time he spent talking about the target grew exponentially, and so did analysts’ doubts that GE could actually pull it off. Amidst this pursuit of an ultimately arbitrary number, cash flow challenges in GE’s power business festered, as did a giant insurance money pit. Immelt never explicitly pulled the target before he stepped down in 2017. GE ended up missing it by a mile. There’s a lesson in that saga for Boeing and Calhoun: if a CEO has to constantly defend a financial target, it’s probably not serving the intended purpose.”
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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 44 Fear (previous close: 41 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 38 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Apr 29 at 1:16:25 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes down one on Satanism. “The lack of activity has downgraded this category” [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 187. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Bird flu not a concern, apparently. And I hate even to go here, but the “Tribulation Temple” category is a mere 3. If Tribulation Temple = Third Temple = whatever temple it is that the Red Heifer loons want to build, then the Rapture Index is making a call, and it’s saying “Don’t worry about the Red Heifers.”
The Conservatory
A good band:
A great band:
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“Sheet Music: the Original Problematic Pop?” [JSTOR]. “How do you handle the fact the content can be so problematic, racist and xenophobic? Whenever we have these collections with harmful content, we add a content warning. In particular, with teaching with the collection, whenever I’m teaching in person with these collections, it’s always a conversation we have with the students, to put it into context, talk about why we have it. We encourage them to take breaks, or stop working on it if they encounter something they’d rather not work with. I often need to take breaks when I work with these collections. We have a reparative description working group where we’re looking at archival records and looking at the language that was used. Sometimes it’s the dealer’s description, or the title of the work itself that is racist. We’re finding ways to look at these records and repair the descriptions and language that the people described in our collections used to describe themselves, which of course changes over time. We’ve done a large project to identify any of the minstrel music in the collection. Minstrelsy was a really racist form of popular entertainment from 1820 to around 1920. We have this big description on our Lester Levy page, our main collection, to describe what our process was, why we undertook it, and what the results were.” • I suppose. But what fragile (and presentist) people; that “harmful” word really grates on me. I mean, I know it’s not their responsbility, and frankly I always welcome a scholarly note, “harms” — and censorship — aside, but holy moley, if you want “harms” go over and straighten out mainstream macro.
Guillotine Watch
“Tech bros love talking about microdosing – but the legality of psychedelics is a messy grey area” [Independent]. “‘[M]icrodosing’ has also become a common practice in Silicon Valley, with high-profile executives such as Elon Musk and Google co-founder Sergey Brin speaking openly about their use of ketamine and psilocybin respectively.” • Good to know major capital allocation decisions are being made by tripped-out bros, no doubt straight from the cuddle puddle. Why haven’t the Chinese thought of this?
News of the Wired
I am not feeling wired today.
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