Gemini
started offering prediction markets across the United States this week, capping
a five-year effort to secure federal approval and entering a sector that has
drawn billions in trading volume this year.
Gemini Launches Prediction
Markets Nationwide After Five-Year Regulatory Wait
The crypto
exchange, founded by billionaire twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, rolled out
Gemini Predictions through its subsidiary Gemini Titan after receiving a
Designated Contract Market license from the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission (CFTC) on
December 11. Users can now trade yes-or-no contracts on events ranging from
whether Bitcoin will close the year above $200,000 to specific regulatory
outcomes.
Introducing Gemini Predictions, now live across all 50 US states 🇺🇲Users can trade on outcomes of real world events with near instant execution and full transparency. pic.twitter.com/1wRhkLCEG5
— Gemini (@Gemini) December 15, 2025
Gemini
first filed for the DCM license in March 2020, making the approval one of the
longer regulatory reviews in recent memory.
Cameron
Winklevoss credited the Trump administration’s approach to crypto regulation
for the eventual greenlight, saying it ended what he called the previous
administration’s hostility toward digital assets.
Three-Way Race for Market
Share
The launch
puts Gemini directly against Kalshi and Polymarket, which together processed
billions in monthly volume during the run-up to the November elections. Polymarket
only resumed U.S. operations this month after being banned from
American markets in 2022.
Gemini
enters with advantages that neither rival has fully matched: a public listing
on Nasdaq, a large retail customer base, and regulatory approvals that took
years to obtain. The exchange resolved its SEC disputes in September and has
since expanded rapidly, adding tokenized stocks and now prediction markets to
its platform.
The
CFTC granted Gemini
and three other platforms relief from certain swap reporting requirements on December 12, easing
compliance burdens for fully collateralized event contracts. That decision came
just one day after Gemini Titan received its DCM license, signaling faster
regulatory processing under Acting Chairman Caroline Pham.
Platform Push Beyond Core
Trading
Gemini
Predictions fits into a wider push across the crypto industry to build what
executives call “super apps,” platforms that combine trading, staking,
lending, and now event-based betting in a single interface. Coinbase has made
similar moves, racing
to add prediction markets and tokenized equities before the end of the year.
Smaller
platforms followed quickly. PancakeSwap announced Probable, a zero-fee
prediction market on BNB Chain, on December 15. The project received backing
from YZi Labs, the venture fund started by Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao.
Self-custodial wallets including MetaMask and Trust Wallet have also begun
adding prediction features, either through partnerships or direct integrations.
Gemini
itself has expanded beyond crypto trading over the past year. The exchange
launched tokenized
stocks in the European Union in June, starting with MicroStrategy shares
and promising to add more equities and ETFs shortly after. That followed an
earlier rollout of staking and rewards programs, all aimed at keeping users
inside Gemini’s ecosystem.
Regulatory Friction
Persists in Some States
Federal
approval hasn’t stopped state-level pushback. Connecticut issued
cease-and-desist orders to Kalshi,
Robinhood, and Crypto.com in early December, claiming their prediction offerings violated
state gambling laws. A judge granted the platforms temporary relief from
enforcement while litigation continues.
Those
orders marked the tenth state to challenge Kalshi’s contracts, illustrating the
gap between federal commodity regulation and state gambling statutes. Gemini
has not disclosed whether it expects similar challenges or how it plans to
navigate conflicting state rules.
Tyler
Winklevoss, Gemini’s CEO, has called prediction markets a potentially larger
opportunity than traditional capital markets, echoing comments he made
when the exchange
first sought regulatory approval in November. The company also indicated it may pursue
broader derivatives offerings, including crypto futures, options, and perpetual
contracts, though it gave no timeline for those products.
Gemini
Predictions is available on the web and iOS, with no trading fees during an
initial promotional period. The platform converts users’ existing dollar
balances into contract positions with what the exchange describes as
near-instant execution.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
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