Iran has resumed commercial flights from Tehran’s international airport for the first time since the conflict with the U.S. and Israel began, with the market for a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by April 30 at 3.1% YES.
The Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 is trading at 3.1% YES, up slightly from yesterday. The June 30 market sits at 11.5% YES, meaning traders price a deal as roughly four times more likely if given two extra months.
The flight resumption also touches the Iranian regime fall by June 30 market, now at 8.5% YES. Reopened airspace points to regime stability, and the odds have risen from 6% a week ago. Daily trading volume is $35,587, and it takes $16,830 to move the market 5 points, which means the order book is thick.
The peace deal market is a different story. The April 30 sub-market trades just $427 in USDC daily, making it vulnerable to sharp moves — a recent 2-point spike shows as much. Buying YES at 3¢ would pay $1 if a peace deal is signed by April 30, a 32.3x return. To justify that bet, you’d need to believe the ongoing negotiations in Pakistan will produce a breakthrough within six days.
Watch the U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan on April 25-26. Any formal statement of progress, particularly involving intermediaries like Qatar, would move the peace deal markets fast.
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