Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of June near two-week highs with traders keen to see bullish continuation.
Key points:
BTC price action targets nearby liquidity as a trader names the “most important” support zone to hold next.US stock-market performance gives analysis reason to believe that the good times will continue amid “record” retail risk appetite.A stock-market correction is not out of the question, new warnings conclude, but Bitcoin should have already priced in the fallout.Exchange inflow data reveals cooling panic among both retail and whale investors.Crypto market sentiment is at monthly highs, on the cusp of exiting “extreme fear.”
Bitcoin key support emerges as bulls eye $64,000
Bitcoin kept up pressure on short positions into the weekly close, hitting $63,960 — its highest levels since June 23, per data from TradingView.
BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Total crypto short liquidations for the 24 hours to the time of writing were just over $100 million, CoinGlass reports.
BTC/USD vs. crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Commenting on low time frames, X account Exitpump was among those attributing the moves to liquidity hunts.
“Seeing aggressive selling from spot markets, spot CVD (yellow) trending down while perps CVD (blue) is flat,” they reported on Monday, referring to cumulative volume delta on exchange order books.
BTC/USD chart with order-book data. Source: Exitpump/X
In the event of a reversal downward, trader Killa called the zone between $60,400 and $60,900 Bitcoin’s “most important.”
“If we cannot hold this price region on a revisit, I’m afraid we are going to trend directly to the lows again. Something to watch out for next week,” the analyst told X followers.
BTC/USD chart. Source: Killa/X
As Cointelegraph continues to report, market participants still see Bitcoin’s bear-market low as yet to come — despite a growing number of bullish trend reversal signals.
Trader Roman, who was long bearish on BTC/USD, stayed optimistic on longer time frames this week.
“Still looking excellent to continue our reversal to see higher prices in the interim,” an X post read.
“I still have a feeling we put in one more macro low before the bottom is officially in, but there are dozens of macro reversal signs all over HTF.”
BTC/USDT one-week chart. Source: Roman/X
Retail risk appetite hits record levels
Bitcoin’s waning ability to copy equities is under the microscope this week as US stock futures start higher after the holiday weekend.
While BTC/USD managed a trip to near two-week highs, Nasdaq 100 futures added 1% as analysts remain bullish on the broader US outlook.
“Although the S&P 500 is coming off a hot second quarter with a 15% gain, the index topped in early June and has yet to make a new high,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic.
“But the S&P 500 trading within a bullish continuation pattern and has been finding support at a key level.”
S&P 500 market data. Source: Mosaic Asset Company
Mosaic added that the average stock “has been rallying to new record highs.”
“That includes the equal-weight S&P 500, small-cap stocks with the Russell 2000 Index, and the NYSE advance/decline line. New highs minus new lows across major exchanges are jumping higher as well,” it noted.
As Cointelegraph reported, recent US inflation and labor-market data helped soften markets’ hawkish expectations for Federal Reserve policy last week.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool sees the Fed holding interest rates at current levels in both July and September.
Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group
Another potential macro tailwind for Bitcoin comes in the form of retail investor demand for risk — despite the cohort’s crypto exodus this year. Analyzing options data, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter described retail risk appetite as being “at record levels.”
“Retail demand for short-term options has never been higher,” it reported on X.
This week, the Fed will release the minutes of its June meeting, where it likewise kept rates steady. Markets will also react to Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers, along with more employment data releases.
“We expect another volatile week ahead as markets brace for earnings season,” Kobeissi added.
Warning over pre-Midterm stock market correction
Looking ahead, not all market participants are convinced that the persistent stocks bull market will last. Among them is Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise.
“What if there is a bigger stock market correction right before the Midterms?” he queried in X posts on Monday, referring to upcoming US elections.
Dragosch flagged the latest data from the MacroQuant Equity Risk Model by macro analytics company BCA Research. This, he warned, was “flashing a bear market warning signal.”
An accompanying chart likened current readings to those last seen in late 2021, when Bitcoin saw the top of its previous bull market.
Source: Andre Dragosch/X
In an extended X post last week, Dragosch nonetheless reasoned that crypto markets had already priced in much of the worst-case scenario that could hit macro in the future: a stock market comedown and a US recession.
“In other words, even if a AI crash and a subsequent US recession materialized, much of that pain appears to be already reflected in Bitcoin prices, which points to reduced downside from here,” he summarized.
Dragosch gave Bitcoin a “decent chance” of outperforming the Nasdaq “on a relative basis over the coming months.”
Whales lead exchange inflow drop
New data reveals that Bitcoin investors cooled selling significantly in the second half of June — even as price set new multi-year lows.
In a QuickTake blog post, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant confirmed that inflows to exchanges had decreased from both retail and whale investors alike.
“Bitcoin whale activity on Binance has cooled sharply since mid-June, with the rolling 30-day value of whale inflows falling by nearly $2.4 billion,” contributor Amr Taha confirmed.
Retail investor inflows displayed a shallower rate of decline, falling from $10.02 billion on June 12 to $8.2 billion on July 6.
“Whale inflows fell at nearly twice the rate of retail inflows, reducing the relative role of large holders in exchange-bound Bitcoin supply. Meanwhile, the gap between retail and whale inflows widened from about $2.98 billion to $3.55 billion,” Taha continued.
Bitcoin whale exchange flows to Binance (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on whales’ overall market conviction improving around the lows.
CryptoQuant notes that exchange inflows are not an infallible signal of investors’ intent to sell.
“The key question now is whether Binance whale inflows stabilize around the current $4.65 billion level or continue moving lower,” Taha concluded.
“A further decline would reinforce the view that large Bitcoin holders are becoming less active on the exchange compared with the retail cohort.”
Crypto market fear “easing, not gone”
Bitcoin’s modest recovery was enough to boost crypto market sentiment considerably this week.
Related: Bollinger Bands creator eyes Bitcoin bear-market end, ‘W’-shaped reversal
The latest readings from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index show that aggregate sentiment is on the verge of exiting “extreme fear” for the first time in over a month.
Fear & Greed measured 24/100 on Monday, more than double its score at the start of July.
“That’s a clear improvement from recent lows. But the market is still in Extreme Fear,” trader Master of Crypto responded on X.
“Fear is easing, not gone.”
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
As a lagging indicator, Fear & Greed tends to mirror existing shifts in market behavior post factum. While the Index is calculated based on a basket of factors, it lacks the ability to predict future trend continuation.
In his latest analysis published this week, commentator and blockchain advisor Anndy Lian argued that Bitcoin bulls needed to back up their optimism with tangible price moves.
“A successful breakout above that US$65,000 threshold would open the door to a broader test of the 100-day moving average, which currently hovers near US$69,500,” he wrote.
“Conversely, failing to sustain the current momentum carries severe downside risks.”
