Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) and Circle (NASDAQ: CRCL) stock prices are rising today, July 27, ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting despite a 33% chance that the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates by 25 basis points.
The gains mirror the 1.69% increase in the Nasdaq-100 futures as easing geopolitical tensions overshadow a potentially hawkish Fed meeting.
July 28-29 FOMC Meeting in Focus as Fed Rate Hike Odds Climb
The Federal Reserve will hold its next FOMC meeting on July 28 to 29. This will be the second FOMC meeting chaired by the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh.
Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that 66.3% of investors expect the Fed to leave the interest rates unchanged at between 3.50% and 3.75%.
However, 33.7% of investors are expecting that the Fed will increase the rates by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4%, a move that could push COIN and CRCL stock prices lower.
During the previous FOMC meeting that took place on June 17, Warsh had stated that the Fed remains committed to bringing inflation down to 2%.
The CPI data for June 2026 revealed that the US inflation rate remains above the Fed’s 2% target at 3.50%. This suggests the Fed could hike rates to bring it down to its target of 2%.
COIN Stock Mirrors CRCL Gains Ahead of FOMC
COIN stock price is up by 2.71% today, July 27, during pre-market trading.
These gains come amid speculation that the US and Iran might hold talks after they halted strikes.
These easing geopolitical tensions have overshadowed the bearish outlook that the Fed could hike rates during the July 28-29 FOMC meeting or give a hawkish speech.
If COIN stock moves above $165 due to the buying pressure coming from traders betting that the US and Iran will have another ceasefire agreement, it might reach the psychological resistance at $170.
The price of COIN had already moved above the 20-day EMA, suggesting that the short-term momentum is favoring bulls.
Still, a hawkish FOMC meeting could bring sellers back, in which case the price of Coinbase shares might drop to the July 17 low of $152.
CRCL Stock Price Targets $70
CRCL was among the few gainers among crypto stocks on July 24. Circle shares rose by 0.29% to close trading at $62.
The shares are extending these gains during pre-market trading today, July 27, with CRCL jumping by 3.16% to $64.
If the uptrend continues in the days leading up to the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, and CRCL stock closes above the resistance at $65, it could reach $70.
Still, the RSI reading of 41 suggests that the momentum is still favoring bears. If the FOMC meeting ends up being hawkish and traders rush to offload risk assets, bears could tighten their grip and push CRCL stock to below $60.
The reluctance seen by retail traders, however, has not spilled over to institutional traders because ARK Invest continues to buy more CRCL shares.
ARK Invest analyst Lorenzo Valente recently said that Circle is a “misunderstood company,” saying that it is not just a USDC issuer but a company that has evolved into having its own blockchain.
CLARITY Act Weighs on COIN and CRCL Stocks Ahead of FOMC
Besides the upcoming FOMC meeting, COIN and CRCL stock prices could be affected by the ongoing debate around whether the CLARITY Act will pass or not.
Congress could hold a vote to vote on this crypto bill on August 3, but 60 votes belonging to Democratic senators remain elusive because of ethics rules.
These senators want the state attorneys general to enforce ethics rules, while the White House prefers the Department of Justice (DoJ).
If opposition towards the bill continues, it could move COIN and CRCL stocks lower even if this week’s FOMC meeting ends up being dovish.
