Bitcoin is approaching a sensitive stage in its broader market cycle, according to new analysis shared by Joao Wedson. The post pointed to a macro indicator designed to track the long-term structure of the market. Based on the latest reading of this model, the data suggests Bitcoin may be moving toward a zone where distribution risks may begin to increase, making the next phase of the cycle particularly important to monitor.
Bitcoin’s Macro Cycle Indicator Explains Where The Market Stands
In a recent X post, Wedson drew attention to the Accumulation Distribution Cycle Index (ADCI), a macro framework created by @arch_physicist and now used in research at Alphractal. The indicator was designed to analyze Bitcoin’s position within the broader structure described by the Wyckoff Method.
The ADCI organizes the market cycle into three distinct ranges, each representing a different stage of market behavior. When the index stays between 0 and 3, Bitcoin is typically in accumulation. These periods usually appear when sentiment is weak and participation is low, allowing larger investors to quietly absorb supply.
The 30 to 70 range signals a market that has already begun moving. In this zone, trends start to develop and expand. The direction of the index during this phase can reveal whether momentum is strengthening or beginning to deteriorate.
When the index moves between 70 and 100, the risk of distribution increases. This phase historically appears when market optimism grows, and demand expands, creating conditions where larger holders can begin offloading supply.
The chart shared alongside the post illustrates this pattern across multiple Bitcoin cycles. Previous peaks in the indicator appear near major price highs, while deep drops in the index tend to align with long accumulation periods that later preceded large price expansions.
What Investors Should Watch As Bitcoin Approaches This Phase
Wedson noted that distribution in the current cycle may not appear the same way it did in earlier markets. In the past, Bitcoin cycles often ended with a sharp blow-off top followed by a rapid correction.
However, as the market matures, distribution may occur more gradually. Instead of a sudden spike and collapse, the market could move sideways for extended periods while repeated rallies begin losing strength.
This type of structure allows stronger holders to slowly release supply while public demand remains active. Because of this, the key signal to watch is not just price spikes but signs of repeated exhaustion, slowing momentum, and prolonged sideways movement.
This is why macro indicators like the ADCI are being emphasized. By focusing on structural positioning rather than short-term price action, the model aims to identify whether Bitcoin is being accumulated or distributed before the shift becomes obvious to the wider market. If the index continues rising toward its upper range while price action begins showing exhaustion, it could indicate the market is entering the distribution phase of the cycle.
Featured image from PNGtree, chart from Tradingview.com
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