Bitcoin Has Acted Almost Identical to 2022 Over the Past Six Months

Bitcoin (BTC) is repeating its latest bull market bottom with near 100% correlation in 2025.

Key points:

Bitcoin is tracking the 2022 bear market with concerning accuracy, with the end of the year just a month away.

November is among the worst on record for BTC price action.

Stocks inflows are picking up, and with them the return of institutional capital to crypto ETFs.

Analysis on BTC price: “It feels bad because it is”

Grim new BTC price analysis from network economist Timothy Peterson concludes that this year is eerily similar to 2022.

Bitcoin has disappointed bulls with its 36% comedown from all-time highs — just when many believed that the bull market’s biggest gains were about to hit.

Now, as the last month of 2025 begins, BTC/USD is anything but bullish. According to Peterson’s data, the pair is even mimicking its last bear-market bottom.

“2H2025 Bitcoin is the same as 2H2022 Bitcoin,” he told followers in a post on X Saturday. 

On a daily and monthly basis, the correlation between this year and 2022 is striking. Correlation on daily timeframes is now 80%, while the monthly equivalent has reached a full 98%.

An accompanying chart shows that if history continues to repeat itself, a true BTC price comeback may not happen until well into Q1 next year.

“It feels bad because it is bad,” Peterson wrote about November performance in previous analysis last week. 

“This month ranks in the bottom 10% of daily price paths since 2015.”

As Cointelegraph reported, a “red” November for BTC/USD historically results in December delivering the same result, albeit with less intense downside.

Crypto ETFs tease end to massive investor rout

A macro sentiment change still has the potential to deliver a classic “Santa rally” across risk assets before year-end.

Related: Crypto bull market signal: ERC-20 stablecoin supply preserves $185B record

Crypto suffered conspicuously more than stocks during the past month’s drawdown, but signs of a turnaround are quickly mounting.

Reporting figures from Bloomberg and JPMorgan this weekend, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter announced “massive inflows” for US equities.

Equity funds have seen $900 billion in new capital since November 2024, with $450 billion in the last five months alone.

“By contrast, other asset class funds have pulled in just +$100 billion,” it commented. 

“Put differently, equities have attracted more inflows than all other asset classes COMBINED. Equity inflows remain remarkably strong.”

The latest data covering the US spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), meanwhile, hints that the worst of the institutional crypto sell-off could be in the past.

Bitcoin ETFs finished Thanksgiving week with $220 billion in inflows, while the Ether equivalents took in $312 million.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.