Despite recent volatility, Wall Street strategists point to signs that markets may be trying to look past the Iran conflict.
Even with oil above $100 since the war began, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is down about 4% and nearly 6% below its all-time high.
“The message of the market is there’s still something in there,” Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick told Yahoo Finance this past week.
“We’ve withstood so much negativity, and everyone is so worried on the other side — that maybe that beachball under the water gets some good news and that ball can go up,” he added.
A hint of that came last Tuesday when the S&P 500 leaped 2.9% for its largest gain since May after President Trump signaled he was considering winding down military presence in Iran over the next two to three weeks.
“If Trump is declaring mission accomplished, then so are we regarding our stock market correction call,” Ed Yardeni and Elias Griepentrog of Yardeni Research wrote following the rebound.
They said their firm will likely lower its recession probability from 35% to 20% once there is greater clarity on whether the Middle East conflict has truly ended.
“Nevertheless, we are maintaining our 7,700 S&P 500 year-end target and our commitment to our ‘Roaring 2020s’ base case,” they wrote.
Read more: How to protect your money as Mideast turmoil fuels market volatility
Strategists at UBS noted the sharp rebound on positive headlines showed how a resolution to the conflict —or even hopes of one — can quickly drive markets higher, “reinforcing the importance for long-term investors to stay invested and positioned for upside.”
“We continue to believe global stock markets will end the year higher than they are today,” wrote Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.
While some economists warn that prolonged energy costs heighten risks of stagflation, a lack of data has prevented Wall Street from slashing profit forecasts.
Read More: What is stagflation, and how does it impact you?
“Maybe [its] because analysts have been just sort of flying blind a little too much lately, but we haven’t seen earnings estimates moved down in a material way,” said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
“That is sort of a reflection of, so far, the data not showing that the economy is struggling, at least right now,” he added.
In fact, heading into the earnings season, companies and analysts have been more optimistic than usual in their outlook for the first quarter, according to FactSet data.
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