Speaking with ET Now, James Knightley from ING noted, “It is a really difficult one to call. There is a huge amount of uncertainty, and markets will remain on tenterhooks until the deadline is hit.”
The ripple effects of this uncertainty are being felt in the inflation outlook as well, with central banks increasingly focusing on price stability amid rising energy costs. Supply disruptions linked to the conflict have pushed oil prices higher, reviving fears of inflationary pressures at a time when growth remains uneven. However, the current situation differs from the post-pandemic surge, particularly in terms of demand dynamics. James Knightley pointed out, “The Fed does not have the tools to deal with supply shocks—they cannot print oil,” highlighting the limitations of monetary policy in such scenarios. Importantly, weaker demand conditions could act as a counterbalance, with Knightley adding, “This supply shock is more demand-destructive, so we may not see broad and persistent inflation.”
Crude oil continues to be the most sensitive asset in this environment, reacting swiftly to every geopolitical development. While a potential easing of tensions could lead to a decline in prices, the trajectory remains uncertain. The extent of any correction will largely depend on the level of damage to supply infrastructure and how quickly normalcy can be restored. As James Knightley observed, “Oil could fall if tensions ease, but the extent will depend on the damage to infrastructure,” suggesting that prices may not revert to earlier levels anytime soon.
Given these uncertainties, investors are leaning towards a defensive stance, favouring safer assets amid the lack of clarity. The risk of sudden disruptions or unexpected escalations remains a key concern, even if a temporary agreement is reached. Reflecting the cautious mood, James Knightley added, “Safe haven is still the key right now, as the backdrop remains cautious.” Until there is greater visibility on both geopolitical and economic fronts, markets are likely to stay reactive, with risk aversion shaping investment decisions.
