Equities finished April with losses but two metrics show the market is well oversold, laying the groundwork for gains this year, according to Blue Chip Daily Trend Report.
Stocks were rammed down in April by dwindling expectations the Federal Reserve will issue numerous rate cuts in 2024 as inflation stalls above its target. The S&P (SP500) finished down by 4.2%, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) fell 4.4% and the Dow (DJI) gave up 5%. April was the first losing month for stocks since October.
“We believe that this current pullback will be the pause that refreshes for another leg higher and eventual new highs in 2024,” Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, said Tuesday in a note discussing “extremely” oversold metrics and titled, “Buy in May and Don’t Go Away”.
Firstly, the S&P 500 (SP500) recently closed at the 8th lowest range level in the past 10 years and the second lowest level since the March 2020 lows, according to the McClellan Oscillator, a market breadth indicator.
“Any potential oversold rallies could be sharp. This ‘clearing out’ so to speak of the S&P 500 stocks should set the stage for a recovery move higher,” Tentarelli said.
Secondly, AI chip heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA) has stumbled ~9% from its closing high in late March.
“In the final leg of a correction, the market often takes down the ‘Generals,'” Tentarelli said. “With Nvidia (NVDA) finally selling off, we believe that this will set the stage for the next leg higher in the indices.”
Industrials, energy, materials, financials and select technology stocks, particularly semiconductors and those carrying the artificial intelligence theme, are Blue Chip Daily Trend’s favorite sectors for the rest of 2024, Tentarelli said.
“Although Fed rate cuts may be delayed, if the economy and consumer stay strong, early rate cuts should not be necessary,” he said.
Here are some large-cap stock ETFs to monitor:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA)