Gesuale initiated coverage on the rocket, satellite, and artificial intelligence company Tuesday with a strong buy rating and an $800 price target, the highest among Wall Street analysts and roughly 430% above where the stock is trading in Tuesday’s selloff. Should the shares hit that level, the company’s market valuation would balloon to roughly $10.5 trillion.
At the moment, SpaceX’s market valuation is less than $2 trillion. “We see the company as one of the defining industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century,” Gesuale wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. “Just as railroads, electric grids, and the Internet reshaped prior economic eras, we believe SpaceX is building the foundational platform for the next generation of industrial capacity.” The projection is based on some eye-popping assumptions. For example, SpaceX posted revenues of $19 billion last year. Gesuale sees that soaring to $5.2 trillion by 2035. What’s more, that growth isn’t tied to the company’s high profile rocket or connectivity segments. Rather it’s based on its nascent artificial intelligence business.
Right now, AI accounts for $16 billion of SpaceX’s revenue, up from $3 billion in 2024 when “substantially all AI revenue came from X, primarily through advertising, subscriptions, and data licensing,” Gesuale wrote. Raymond James estimates that the figure will rise to about $650 billion by 2031, “making AI the company’s largest business by revenue beginning in 2027, and by 2035 it will represent nearly 94% of SpaceX’s revenue, or $4.9 trillion, Gesuale wrote.
Shifting toward a business model that focuses on monetising compute rather than space travel is how Gesuale believes SpaceX will achieve his revenue targets. “That growth is underpinned by a rapid expansion in installed compute capacity, initially through terrestrial AI infrastructure before progressively extending into orbital compute later in the decade,” he wrote. Gesuale notes that the bullish forecasts aren’t without their risks.
In a scenario where SpaceX experiences unexpected launch failures, the stock could fall to $125, below its $135 initial public offering price. Launch failures would “raise concerns about the pace of orbital AI, Starlink Mobile, and Starship-enabled infrastructure optionality,” Gesuale said.
