Reliance Industries shares jump to fresh 52-week high as Jefferies projects 14% upside on earnings momentum

Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) rose 1.1% on Friday to hit a new 52-week high of Rs 1,580.90 on the BSE after global brokerage firm Jefferies reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a price target of Rs 1,785, implying a potential upside of 14%.

The brokerage cited improving earnings growth and multiple valuation triggers across all of RIL’s core business segments—retail, oil-to-chemicals (O2C), telecom, and FMCG—as the key drivers.

The brokerage also highlighted that the stock continues to trade below its long-term EV/EBITDA average, which indicates a favourable risk-reward.

Jefferies noted that all three major verticals of Reliance are delivering double-digit growth in year-to-date FY26, with tailwinds visible from strong festive season demand, expansion in FMCG, and higher refining margins.

The report highlighted that Retail revenue is expected to continue reporting double-digit year-on-year growth for the second consecutive quarter in Q3, aided by strong festival consumption and the rapid expansion of JioMart’s dark store network in metro cities. Jefferies estimated that the dark store rollout (600 as of Q2) has led to a 200% rise in daily orders, helping drive revenue growth.

In its note, Jefferies also pointed to the scaling up of Reliance’s FMCG business, which has been growing 100% year-on-year over the past six quarters. The segment, with key contributions from general trade and private label expansion, is clocking a US$ 2.4 billion annualized revenue run-rate as of Q2FY26.The global brokerage firm believes this makes RIL’s FMCG business larger than several prominent listed players, such as Tata Consumer, GCPL, Britannia, and Dabur (excluding HUL and Nestle). The brokerage sees potential value unlocking in FMCG through CY26 and FY27–28.Refining profitability, according to Jefferies, is also expected to remain elevated in 2HFY26, supported by tight global supply due to disruptions in Russian refined product exports and strong margins in European diesel and US gasoline. The firm noted that US gasoline spreads are up 44% year-on-year in November, with gasoline inventories trending well below the 5-year average.

In the oil-to-chemicals segment, O2C profitability for YTDFY26 is tracking +15% year-on-year, driven by supply constraints supporting strength in auto fuels, Jefferies said. The brokerage forecasts continued strength in EBITDA from this segment.

Also read: GAIL shares slump over 6% on PNGRB’s lower-than-expected transmission tariff revisionJefferies also flagged Jio’s impending IPO in 1HCY26 as a key trigger, alongside the possibility of tariff normalisation. It assumes two tariff hikes of 10% each in 4QFY26 and 4QFY27, anticipating that industry dynamics may support such a move. With Jio’s dominant share in home broadband, scaling of the enterprise business, and monetisation of its 5G stack, Jefferies believes these developments could support medium-term growth and stock performance.

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