The big reason to buy Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) right now is its huge 7% dividend yield. To put that into perspective, the S&P 500 index (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) yields a tiny 1%, and the average pharmaceutical stock yields 1.5%. The big risk with buying Pfizer for its outsize yield is that the dividend could be cut. Here’s a look at the problem.
Pfizer’s spending a lot of cash on its dividend
In 2025, Pfizer paid roughly $9.8 billion in dividends. Through the first half of 2026, it paid roughly $4.8 billion. That’s a total of $14.6 billion in dividends over the last six quarters. It is a lot of money going out the door at a time when the company needs cash to pay for other things.
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The most notable other thing this pharmaceutical giant is paying for right now is the research and development of new drugs. To be fair, drug companies are always spending on R&D. New drugs are granted time-limited patent protection, so there’s a constant need to develop new drugs to replace older ones that are losing patent protection. When a patent expires, generic drugs enter the market and revenues from branded drugs tend to decline sharply.
Pfizer’s problem is that several of its large drugs are set to lose patent protection. Oncology drug Ibrance loses patent protection in 2027, with cardiovascular drugs Eliquis and Vyndaqel set to lose patent protection in 2028. And Pfizer doesn’t have any big new drugs lined up to replace them just yet. To be fair, patent expirations happen on a set schedule, but R&D does not. So this isn’t a shocking development. Still, investors have to consider the risk posed to the dividend if new drugs don’t arrive in time to offset the revenue hit from generic competition. Meanwhile, the company had a very public setback when it had to drop a GLP-1 drug candidate in 2025.
Pfizer has options and says the dividend is a priority
Pfizer’s trailing 12-month dividend payout ratio was over 130% at the end of the first quarter of 2026. That’s a level that would worry most dividend investors. However, the financial impact of dividends isn’t reported on the income statement; it is reported on the cash flow statement. If you compare dividends to cash flow using the cash dividend payout ratio, the figure is slightly more reassuring: 103%.
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It is important to note that companies can access cash in different ways. For example, Pfizer ended the first quarter with $1.7 billion in cash on its balance sheet and $11.3 billion in short-term investments. Put those two together, and Pfizer can support its dividend just from that for a few quarters. But it could also elect to take on additional debt, using the cash it raises to support the dividend. In other words, Pfizer has options.
The dividend, meanwhile, is paid at the discretion of the board of directors. Management has made it very clear that the dividend is a priority, stating in the first quarter slide deck that “maintain dividend” is a key long-term goal. Management wouldn’t likely have said that if the board was seriously considering a dividend cut.
Pfizer: No dividend guarantees
Pfizer’s yield is so high because investors are worried about the safety of the dividend. Given the healthcare company’s backdrop, that concern makes complete sense. From a business perspective, Pfizer’s long and successful history suggests it will muddle through this rough patch in relative stride. For example, it quickly pivoted in the GLP-1 space and bought a company with a more promising drug candidate. Still, it isn’t 100% clear that the dividend will survive.
Given the facts around the dividend, however, it seems likely that more aggressive dividend investors could end up big winners if they take on the risk of a dividend cut. Meanwhile, a realistic worst-case scenario would probably be a 50% dividend reduction. That would still leave the stock with an above-average yield, and such a cut appears to be already priced in. All in, the risk/reward balance may not be as bad as the out size yield suggests.
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Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Pfizer. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Pfizer Paid Out $14.6 Billion in Dividends Over the Last 18 Months. Can It Keep This Up Through the Patent Cliff? was originally published by The Motley Fool
