U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that talks to end the conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran could resume in Pakistan within the next two days. This follows a breakdown in negotiations over the weekend that led Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports. The prospect of renewed dialogue has raised hopes of a resolution that could restore crude and fuel flows.
Crude oil price on April 15
Brent crude futures slipped 52 cents, or 0.55%, to $94.27 a barrel at 0054 GMT, extending a 4.6% drop in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.04, or 1.1%, to $90.24, after losing 7.9% a day earlier.The conflict has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for transporting crude and refined products from the Gulf to global markets, especially in Asia and Europe.
Despite signs of possible diplomatic progress and talk of easing transit curbs, on-ground supply conditions remain disrupted.
What’s next for prices?
Brokerage firm Macquarie noted that even if tensions ease, oil prices are likely to stay supported in the $85 to $90 range, with a gradual move toward $110 as flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalise. It added that if disruptions extend through April, Brent could still rise to $150 per barrel.Looking ahead, crude prices could move higher from current levels. According to Kayanat Chainwala of Kotak Securities, oil may rise to $120 per barrel in the near term and potentially touch $150 if the conflict continues.
Nuvama Institutional Equities echoes the same view. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20 million barrels per day, could push crude prices to the $110–150 per barrel range.
Market experts believe crude may be entering a structurally higher price phase. Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President at Religare Broking, said the current ceasefire is temporary and a return to pre-war levels of $70 to $75 could take several months. In the near term, he expects crude to remain within a range of $80 to $85 on the downside and $95 to $100 on the upside.
Analysts also point out that as long as tensions persist, the outlook for crude remains volatile with an upward bias. Continued disruptions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, are likely to keep supply tight, supporting both Brent and WTI prices and maintaining inflationary pressures globally.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
