Here Comes SpaceX’s IPO. Should You Board on Day One?

Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN) are facing headwinds as investors anticipate a potential $1.75-2 trillion SpaceX-xAI IPO that could reshape the S&P 500 and redirect capital away from the Magnificent Seven tech giants.

SpaceX possesses an unmatched economic moat through its reusable rocket technology, satellite constellation (Starlink), and data center AI capabilities, positioning it to potentially command premium valuations and offer services to competing tech firms rather than vice versa.

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There’s more to Elon Musk than just Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock. And soon, retail investors will be able to get a piece of a company that may very well outshine the electric vehicle (EV) and robotics powerhouse. With EV sales and shares of Tesla under considerable pressure in April, perhaps there’s no better time for another Musk-led firm to hit the private markets. With SpaceX combining with xAI, an AI firm that would be worth a fortune itself, the stage seems set for the biggest IPO of all-time, with a target valuation that might hit $2 trillion on the upside.

That’s not only big, but it will reshape the S&P 500 as we know it, given its top-heaviness. Any way you look at it, the stock market is about to move into a new era beyond the Magnificent Seven, as Elon Musk’s rocket and AI company looks to change the world.

With the Elon Musk premium attached, the rocket ship excitement factor, and the upside surrounding xAI’s Grok as well as its different approach to AI, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if investors who don’t get a seat on day one end up having to pay a price that implies a market cap well north of $2 trillion. As exciting as the businesses (from reusable rockets to AI chips for data centers in space) are, I view the name as more than a hype-driven titan.

The company isn’t just on the cutting-edge of tomorrow’s tech; it’s actually making money from industries (think SpaceX and Starlink) that the rest of the corporate world seems eager to break into. Of course, there are considerable barriers to entry when it comes to sending satellite payloads into space. The same goes for designing economical rockets. In any case, I think once SpaceX (SpaceX-xAI or whatever it’ll be called) has the potential to be one of the more magnificent members of the Mag Seven.

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What’s more, though, is that perhaps Tesla shareholders might have an escape hatch with the name. Why hang onto shares of a falling EV play when you can own a piece of one of the biggest game-changers in the private space market?

And with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) clashing with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to acquire GlobalStar, a firm which Apple already owns a stake in, it certainly seems like the rest of the Mag Seven are following in SpaceX’s lead. Space is the next frontier for mega-cap tech, and perhaps it’s not too outlandish to see the SpaceX IPO take away much of the investment dollars from the seven tech titans.

When it comes to economic moat width, SpaceX might be tops. And as it maintains its massive share of space, perhaps it’s the Mag Seven that will need to pay Elon Musk and company for a ride to the stars or to use their satellite constellation. Who knows? If Apple is paying for Google Gemini, perhaps some of the tech firms out there will wind up paying SpaceX for its AI.

In the meantime, though, xAI might be off-putting to some, especially since the market is no fan of AI CapEx these days.

At a $1.75-2 trillion market cap? Probably not. Perhaps you’ll get enough exposure by way of the Nasdaq 100 or S&P 500. As the biggest IPO to land, there’s going to be a massive crowd on the opening day. And perhaps an unprecedented share spike that could enrich, but also go bust in a hurry.

It’s hard to sit this one out, but unless you’re willing to stomach a big drop and double down on such a dip, it might be best to wait and see how things play out. This isn’t just another tech IPO; it’s the biggest one in history by one of the greatest visionaries of our time. Personally, I’d watch the rest of the Mag Seven closely and look to get in on weakness as some look to rotate capital out of the names to get ready for that SpaceX IPO launch, which could arrive as early as June 2026.

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