Novo Nordisk’s patent for GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) therapy expired last week. Jefferies in its latest report said that after the patent expiry, more than 10 brands have launched their versions online, and over 40 brands are expected to join the race across injectables and oral forms.
The international brokerage noted that price points for the monthly dose of the injectable version are in the range of Rs 1,290-4500, with Natco and Glenmark offering products at the lower end of the range, and Dr Reddy’s and Torrent at the higher. “Most companies have launched their own brands, while others have formed partnerships (Torrent/Lupin are sourcing from Zydus). Torrent Pharma, the sole generics firm to supply the oral version, has priced it at a lower discount (30-50%) vs. injectables. Zydus offers a reusable multi-dose pen device; this differentiated offering allows patients to progressively titrate their dosage over the course of the treatment,” it added.
Products already sold out online
Despite the strong inventory build-up by companies, Jefferies claimed that there is a shortage in online channels. Out of the 10 brands that have already launched their generic versions only, the products by only 3-4 brands are still available while the rest are sold out, it said. Multiple reasons including inaccurate demand forecasts, limited supply quantities sent to online channels and supply chain hurdles due to regulatory crackdowns were cited as the possible reasons by the brokerage.Additionally, the launches face intensified regulatory surveillance against unauthorized sale and promotion by the regulator in order to ensure ethical practices in the supply chain of GLP-1 drugs. “Our interactions with companies suggest the product is still in the initial days of launch. Companies are testing the waters with demand and supply, and they expect the market to settle down in the next few months. Impact of Semaglutide launch on existing diabetes drugs should also become clear in coming months,” Jefferies wrote.
Why Sun Pharma, Lupin and Torrent Pharma can emerge as winners
Notably, these are strictly prescription-drugs. Endocrinologists and internal medicine specialists can mainly prescribe the drugs, along with cardiologists only for some indications. “Thus, companies with strong connect with specialist doctors and a large-scale cardio franchise such as Sun, Lupin and Torrent could emerge as eventual winners,” the international brokerage said.The Nifty Pharma is among the only two sectoral indices which were in the green on NSE on Friday. Piramal Pharma, Mankind Pharma and other stocks gained up to 2%, as seen in the afternoon.Jefferies has a ‘Buy’ call on Alkem Laboratories, Emcure Pharmaceuticals, Lupin, Mankind Pharma, Sun Pharma, Torrent Pharma and Zydus Lifesciences. It however has an ‘Underperform’ rating for Cipla and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories.
As per industry data, the penetration of GLP-1 drugs is still very low in India, reaching only about 5% of people with diabetes and 4% of those with obesity. This leaves a vast untapped pool in the country, which has over 100 million diabetics and 250 million individuals with obesity.
Ozempic was priced at Rs 8,800–11,175, while Wegovy cost Rs 10,850–16,400 a month. In comparison, Mounjaro (tirzepatide) from Eli Lilly cost between Rs 13,000 and Rs 26,000 per injection, depending on the dosage. Each injection consists of four monthly shots.
The high prices of existing drugs have led investors to expect that cheaper generics will see strong demand in India, although regulatory oversight remains critical.
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