Global stocks hold steady after four-day rally

The MSCI All Country World Index was little changed after trimming its drop for November to 0.4% in the prior sessions. The gauge had been down nearly 4% for the month just over a week ago. European and Asian benchmarks posted modest moves, with US markets closed for Thanksgiving. S&P 500 futures were steady. In another sign that risk appetite is returning, Bitcoin traded above $91,000 for the first time in a week. The dollar paused a two-day retreat.

The moves in stocks tracked firming expectations for Fed easing, with money markets pricing in roughly an 80% chance of a quarter-point cut next month and leaning toward three more by the end of 2026. A little more than a week ago, traders were projecting three cuts in total. It also signals fresh optimism after worries over stretched tech valuations hammered equities earlier in the month.

“We’re building up for a classic year-end rally,” said Daniel Murray, chief executive officer of EFG Asset Management Switzerland. “Our main scenario is one where actually the macro environment continues to hold up well into 2026, the corporate earnings outlook looks pretty decent and you get the added tailwind of the lagged effect of rate cuts.”

Among the more notable movers on Thursday, Japanese and South Korean equities outperformed their regional peers, with tech shares leading gains in both markets. In Europe, Germany’s DAX index rose 0.3% as Puma SE jumped 16% on takeover interest from multiple bidders.

UK gilts gave back some of Wednesday’s rally that followed the Autumn budget.Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves carved out a larger fiscal buffer, which buoyed sentiment, even though the tax-raising steps required cast a shadow over the outlook for economic growth. The pound and FTSE 100 were little changed. “All told, we think the UK government did what it needed to do to keep UK bond markets on side,” wrote Bill Diviney, head of macro research at ABN AMRO. “While there is naturally some risk to this more backloaded fiscal consolidation round, it comes on top of an already considerable effort.”

Oil fluctuated after Russian President Vladimir Putin said that US proposals for ending the war in Ukraine could be the basis for future agreements, although no final draft exists yet. Platinum touched its highest level in more than a month, supported by optimism over fresh demand after a Chinese exchange launched a new futures contract.