Fragile US-Iran talks: Gold rises to Rs 1.53 lakh; silver jumps nearly Rs 10,000. What’s next?

Gold and silver prices surged sharply in India on Tuesday, tracking global cues and currency movements, even as domestic equity markets remained shut for Ambedkar Jayanti and trading on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was limited to the evening session.

Gold prices rose about 1% to Rs 1.53 lakh per 10 grams, while silver saw a sharper rally, jumping nearly Rs 10,000 or around 4% to Rs 2.5 lakh per kg,.

The gains in domestic bullion mirrored international trends, where gold advanced more than 1% as the US dollar weakened and hopes of a possible resumption in US-Iran talks provided additional support. A softer dollar typically boosts demand for gold by making it cheaper for holders of other currencies.

In global markets, spot gold was up 1.1% at $4,791 per ounce, while US gold futures rose 1% to $4,815. The movement came as reports suggested that negotiating teams from the US and Iran may resume talks later this week, easing some inflation concerns linked to geopolitical tensions.

Investors remain highly sensitive to developments around the conflict. Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said the direction of gold prices would hinge on progress in negotiations, adding that positive developments could push metals higher in the near term.

Back home, analysts pointed to continued volatility in the bullion market. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst for commodities and currency at LKP Securities, said geopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate sentiment.”Volatility remains high as geopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate sentiment. In the near term, gold is expected to trade within a range of Rs 1,48,500–Rs 1,52,500,” he said.Despite Tuesday’s gains, technical indicators suggest that gold may face resistance near current levels. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said a sustained move above Rs 1,54,000 would be required to revive bullish momentum toward Rs 1,55,000.

“On the downside, a break below Rs 1,51,000 may extend weakness toward Rs 1,50,000 and further to Rs 1,48,000,” he said, adding that the broader bias remains cautious as momentum lacks conviction.

Silver, which tends to be more volatile than gold, also showed signs of technical weakness despite the sharp rally. According to Ponmudi, resistance is seen at Rs 2,40,000, and any recovery toward this level could face selling pressure. “A decisive break below Rs 2,37,000 could accelerate selling toward the Rs 2,35,000–Rs 2,33,000 range,” he noted.

The absence of daytime trading on MCX due to the holiday also meant thinner participation, potentially amplifying price moves during the evening session.