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Home Economy

The Case for Sunshine (with Rowan Jacobsen)

by FeeOnlyNews.com
11 hours ago
in Economy
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The Case for Sunshine (with Rowan Jacobsen)
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0:37

Intro. [Recording date: May 18, 2026.]

Russ Roberts: Today is May 18th, 2026, and my guest is author Rowan Jacobsen. He was last here in October of 2021, talking about his book Truffle Hound. That episode tied for first place in our annual poll of favorite episodes of the year. His latest book is In Defense of Sunlight: The Surprising Science of Sun Exposure.

Rowan, welcome back to EconTalk.

Rowan Jacobsen: Thanks, Russ. Great to be back. I hope I get another first place this year.

Russ Roberts: Well, we’ll see. We’ll see. You might have to rig the voting like you did the last time–multiple times.

Rowan Jacobsen: Hey, it worked last time.

1:11

Russ Roberts: Yeah. We’re going to be talking about a number of issues related to health. I want to remind listeners, we do not dispense medical advice on this show. Even though I am a doctor, I’m not the kind that helps people. As we all know, I’m a Doctor of Philosophy [Ph.D.] in economics. You should take everything you hear with a grain, or more, of salt. But, this is a very interesting, provocative, and contrarian take on what, for a long time, was received wisdom. So, let’s get started.

What’s the central idea of this book, Rowan?

Rowan Jacobsen: The basic idea is that we are now at a point where enough science has filled in that we need to reconsider what has been, as you say, the perceived wisdom on sun exposure. That, the recommendations we’ve received for the past few decades no longer accurately reflect what we know about the science.

Russ Roberts: And I think most people are taught, depending what age you are, obviously, but particularly young people are taught that sun is a killer. It leads to skin cancer–which I think is scientifically undeniable. We’ll talk about what kind of nuance we want to bring to that statement when we talk about it more thoughtfully. But: The sun is a killer, so stay out of the sun. And, if you have to go into the sun, you should cover your body with clothing or sunscreen and protect yourself. That’s the received wisdom, I think, for many people, despite the research you’re talking about. Do you think that’s correct?

Rowan Jacobsen: Yeah, for sure. And, it has actually become more strident, those recommendations, over the years. The sun is a killer. We all agree that sun exposure will raise your risk of skin cancer. And so, based on that fact, the authorities have recommended that people first reduce their level of sun exposure, and more recently pretty much eliminate any sun exposure where your skin is unprotected by either clothing or sunscreen.

And, that was part of the reason I decided it was time to write the book. When I started to see in the past few years that the typical advice you’d see in the media was stay out of the sun, summer, winter, no matter who you are, no matter what your situation is. Use sunscreen even if you are going to be indoors all day and it’s winter. And, that didn’t reflect what the researchers had been discovering for a few decades.

Russ Roberts: And, I think I would sum up the lesson of this book–and like your previous book, this is a very readable book. There is a lot of science, but it’s written very clearly. I would sum up–one summary sentence would be: The sun is not bad for you; in fact, it’s good for you. It does have costs potentially, and thoughtful people should be aware of those trade-offs. Is that a fair summary?

Rowan Jacobsen: Yeah. When you said the sun is a killer, I almost wanted to jump in and say, ‘Well, it is, but it’s also a giver of health and vitality.’ And, that part has been left out of the equation for a while.

The sun–we’ll get into this–but the sun improves–we now have pretty solid evidence that moderate sun exposure improves health in lots of both direct and indirect ways, and that was what was left out of the equation. When we’re told the sun is a killer–it raises your risk of skin cancer–that’s true, but that’s obviously a very small portion of overall health and longevity.

And so, there’s a metaphor that some of the researchers use, which is that it’s like if orthopedists started telling people, ‘Stop exercising because when you exercise, your risk of knee injury goes way up. We’re seeing a lot of knee injuries from exercise; therefore, never run. In fact, don’t even walk around if you can help it. Just sit down because that way, that’s going to take the pressure off your knees.’ And, they weren’t taking into consideration these other pieces of the picture. That’s kind of what’s happened with sunlight.

5:38

Russ Roberts: And, before I read your book, I would have said maybe I could imagine that there’s some evidence that sunlight is good for your disposition, your mood.

Russ Roberts: People say, ‘Get out early in the morning, get some sunlight, it’ll make you feel better.’ And we all know, and you write about it in the very beginning of your book, that if you live in a climate where the sun doesn’t shine very often, winter can be very dark–literally, but also emotionally.

Yet, what I’d say the most powerful parts–you talk about that, and it’s very interesting. But, the most powerful parts of this book is the possible role that scientists are discovering for sunlight with the health of our skin, possibly the health of our heart, our autoimmune system. And, I have to confess, being a skeptical person, when I hear it stated that way, it sounds a little bit rah-rah. As a contrarian take on this issue, which has gone so far in one direction, you’re going so far in the other. And yet, the science is quite serious. This is not quackery or a study found–a small sample. There’s a huge amount of research on this, it sounds like.

Rowan Jacobsen: An, that’s partly what drew me into it and made me want to really devote myself to a book-length work on it.

Yeah, there’s actually decades of science in multiple different fields that have been discovering these benefits of sunlight, and they really haven’t come into the public discussion. It’s just how science works: there’s a lot of specialization in science. These researchers would publish their study and they’d say, ‘Well, it looks like sun exposure might be good for you in this case,’ but it wasn’t their job to take it any farther than that. So, the papers get published and they kind of just disappear.

So, once I started seeing so many of them out there, and realized there was kind of nobody whose job it was to bring it all together and try to synthesize that into some sort of overall understanding of what was going on, it seemed like that was a pretty good way to focus my time and energy.

And, it is–you’re right to be skeptical. I was skeptical at first, too. Any time you hear something that really diverges from the recommendations of the experts in the field, you immediately wonder about quacks and where the information is coming from. And so, it’s great to be skeptical. And, one of the things I’m hoping this book does is just bring that conversation into the general discussion, rather than try to make a slam dunk case for it.

Russ Roberts: And, I would just add, of course we should be skeptical sometimes of the advice of the so-called experts. Because as you point out, the sunscreen industry is a very large one. There’s a lot of money to be made. Dermatologists make a lot of money removing things on the skin that may or may not be harmful to us. So, you have to be balanced. You have to be thoughtful. And of course, the world is complicated, as we know–as listeners on this program know.

9:05

Russ Roberts: But, I want to start–one of the things that’s fun about this book is the narrative arc of how people think about and have thought about sunlight. So, there was this period, which is really fascinating–in the early 20th century, I think is the time period, but it goes back into the 19th as well–when people had this incredible romance about the healing powers of the sun. And, the phrase that was used is heliotherapy–helio is related to the sun. So, being out in the sun is good for you; and this was part of a movement. So, talk about how that movement started in fighting, say, tuberculosis and other really serious things where sunlight did help, but then the sort of obsession with it, especially in California and elsewhere.

Rowan Jacobsen: Yeah. There’s a fascinating history that I wasn’t really familiar with until I dived into the book, and I think we’ve mostly forgotten about it. But, yeah, we had this amazing era of heliotherapy in both Europe and the United States; and really, peaking in the early 1900s. And, as you mentioned, it really all came out of tuberculosis to a large degree. Now, tuberculosis is still a big–if you look at mortality figures worldwide, tuberculosis is still a big player. But, back in the 1900s, it was a massive–sorry, the 19th century–it was as huge problem. I think one out of every four deaths in Europe was due to tuberculosis in the later 1800s.

A scientist from the Faroe Islands–of all places–was the first to realize that cutaneous tuberculosis–tuberculosis can go in two different directions. It can either infect the lungs–which was the classic consumption of romantic poetry–or it can be cutaneous: it can affect the skin and just eat flesh. They’re both really bad. Or, they were before antibiotics.

Anyway, this Faroe Islands doctor named Finsen discovered that concentrated sunlight could kill the cutaneous tuberculosis and could cure cutaneous tuberculosis. And that became a big deal.

At the same time, doctors were discovering that another disease that had popped up in the Industrial Revolution–rickets–was caused by lack of sunlight. All the kids in tenements in the United Kingdom and elsewhere who were never exposed to the amount of sunlight they would have back in the farming days were coming down with rickets. Which is a terrible disease. Your bones never get hard as a kid, so you get bowed legs and deformed skulls. It was also a big problem in this era. That also turned out to be cured by Vitamin D, and they discovered that it was sunlight hitting skin that produced Vitamin D.

So suddenly, two of the major diseases of that late 1800s period–rickets and tuberculosis–were being fixed by sunlight. And, there were clinics popping up everywhere to do so. And it came to be known as heliotherapy. And, people would go up to the Swiss Alps where the light was really good, to the sanitariums up there, to take the light. We know that era of the magic mountain where people would go up to Alps to the sanitariums for the fresh air. But fresh air was only part of it. The light, the quality of the light, was the other part of it.

And so, once people started thinking about light as a thing that could cure these diseases, they did go a little too far, and they began asking, ‘Well, what else might light cure?’ And, doctors kind of started noticing that people who got a lot of light and fresh air tended to be healthier than people who didn’t.

So then you could see through the 1920s, 1930s, the top medical experts of the time all really getting on board the light train and saying, like, one of the keys to public health is that everybody gets light. And, schools were redesigned to make sure that kids got more light. The kids would be sent out to play in their underwear. It was really this crazy, crazy era. There’s spectacular photos from this time. Like, in Switzerland of kids just in their boxer shorts, sitting in the snow at their desks, taking their lessons. And instructors, also in their boxer shorts, instructing the kids.

It was pretty incredible. And, everybody was on board with it. Until the 1930s and 1940s–the first inklings that all that light might also be causing skin cancer began to appear. At which point, things started to flip in the other direction.

14:20

Russ Roberts: Let’s talk about the prevalence of skin cancer and then we’ll come back to Vitamin D in a little bit because it fascinates me. But, let’s talk about skin cancer.

So, skin cancer surges–probably worldwide, but certainly in the United States. And you’ll give us a better idea of exactly the timing of that. But it’s a little complicated by the kind of usual factors people often ignore when they worry about an increase in a disease, in terms of diagnoses of a disease. So, talk about the actual–what we know about the history and why it’s a little more complicated maybe than it first appears. And, the two different kinds of skin cancer, the two different kinds of cancers that are relevant here.

Rowan Jacobsen: Yeah. Skin cancer, there’s three major types of skin cancer. One is squamous cell carcinoma [SCC] and one’s basal cell carcinoma [BCC], and those often get referred to as SCCs and BCCs. And those are responsible for about 98% of all skin cancer cases.

Then the third important type of skin cancer is melanoma, and that’s more like 2% of skin cancer cases. And, I’m sure we’ll dive into this later: Melanoma is the one you really want to worry about, that has–there’s significant mortality associated with it.

The SCCs and the BCCs are the ones–everybody you know tends to get after they hit age 70 or 80. You have to cut them off because they’ll keep getting bigger, but they very rarely become invasive. So, they’re not associated with significant mortality in any way.

Weirdly, none of those diseases were very prevalent before about World War II. Like, back in the day–in the early 1900s–skin cancer was something that sailors got. Sailors get a ton of sun exposure. They also get terrible diets, and your diet does affect your risk for skin cancer. So, sailors, maybe the occasional farmer, would get a skin cancer, but it was not on doctors’ radar at all.

And then, somewhere around World War II, numbers go way up. And, partly, as you’re referring to–it was partly just a demographics issue. As public health gets better and people don’t die of cardiovascular disease or infectious disease at earlier ages, they live long enough to get skin cancer. And, not just skin cancer. You see this funny, confounding trend in lots of different areas where, as public health improves, rates of cancer go up per 100,000 people because people are living long enough to get cancer. You got to die of something, right? So, cancer rates tend to go up when other things improve. But, then, you look at the age-adjusted numbers, and maybe they’re not going up as much as you thought they were.

So, yeah, what happened in the second half of the 20th century in the United States and Western Europe is that people were living longer. But skin cancer cases were exploding, like, even more so than could be accounted for by longer life.

So, that was when this sort of panic started to set in that some sort of epidemic was underway. And it had to be sunlight, because we’d, you know, shown in lab tests that if you zap a mouse with enough UV [ultra-violet], you can create skin cancers on it.

So, basically, doctors assumed that the entire rise of skin cancer was because people were being irresponsible and were exposing themselves to a ton more solar radiation than they used to back in the day. So that’s when the messaging started, and then eventually got more strident: that you needed to stay out of the sun.

18:33

Russ Roberts: That’s not a very plausible explanation because over the course of the 20th century, people spent more time inside than they had before. We have the rise of offices. That: farming goes from 40% of the workforce in 1900 to 3% by the end of the century, so people aren’t in the sun. There aren’t many sailors left in the world as a profession. It’s not a common profession: there are other forms of transportation. So, they had to have–there has to be another explanation.

And of course, the other usual challenge in these kind of trends–and I won’t name particular diseases. But a lot of times people worry about some epidemic in a disease and they assume that epidemic is real when sometimes it’s merely an increase in diagnosis.

So, I don’t know when dermatologists were invented– seriously, as a specialty–but that had, I would guess, something to do with this. So, talk about the diagnosis issue. I mean, just to give an example, I had an issue–I forget, I don’t need to share it with listeners–but I had a skin issue on my face. My doctor was concerned about it; I went to a dermatologist. The dermatologist did a full body check to make sure my entire skin was free of things. Of course, it’s not. It’s got spots, skin tags, other exciting irregularities. Most of us do, I suspect. I don’t think it’s just me.

But, once you have that process in place, you are going to discover more things. Now, the question is whether human health has deteriorated. And in theory, discovering more things early could be good because then you could treat them. So, you’d want to see if the treatment of it was leading to longevity and lower rates of mortality. So, talk about what we know about that.

Rowan Jacobsen: Okay, I’m going to lead in with a fun fact. What’s the number one best predictor of whether you will be diagnosed with skin cancer in the United States? It’s not sun exposure. I’ll give you that one for free.

Russ Roberts: Go ahead.

Rowan Jacobsen: It’s how many dermatologists there are in your county, and the overall age bracket for people in your county. And, that is to your point about diagnosis. The more you look for something, the more you’re going to find it. And, a huge amount of the rise in skin cancer cases is because we’re looking a lot more carefully.

Now, that’s not a bad thing. Right? If you’re finding skin cancers that might maybe got missed before and never diagnosed, never even made it into the records, that’s a good thing, and that’s definitely been one thing that’s happened.

Russ Roberts: You’re finding them earlier, ideally. It can be treated more effectively when it’s early.

Rowan Jacobsen: Right. And that’s all to the good. And, as long as you don’t start to panic–because now that you’re looking, you’re finding a lot more–and think that something has changed that needs to be dealt with.

And yeah, as you said earlier: you look back at some of these early papers about the rise of skin cancer, and it is almost laughable how bad some of the reasoning was.

Like, the earliest–in the United States, the earliest solid data on skin cancer was, like, this Connecticut registry in the 1940s. For whatever reason, Connecticut started doing it a little bit before any other State. So, to compare rates of skin cancer today to Connecticut in the 1940s, the researchers literally assumed that back then, in the 1930s and 1940s, nobody ever exposed their skin to the sun. You can actually read these lines in the papers and go, ‘What are they talking about? Have they looked at photos of people on the beach in the 1930s and 1940s?’ But, the idea was that back then, people were much more conservative. They never spent any time in the sun. So, the entire rise in skin cancers is because now we’re spending so much more time in the sun.

Russ Roberts: And we should add: there is a cultural interest in tanning and bronzing and having a tan that you could argue when we’re talking about what’s changed. It’s true. I overstated the case, I said people don’t work as much outside in the last half of the 20th century as they did in the first half. On the other hand, they didn’t have much leisure in the earliest parts of the 20th century, so they didn’t have time to go to the beach and lay in the sun and bake for X hours. And, it could be that that’s the cause.

Rowan Jacobsen: Right. And, I’ve actually looked for good numbers on time spent outdoors, and unfortunately, it doesn’t really exist. The best numbers you see are for kids. There’s some studies that have tracked kids’ outdoor time over the decades and you see, unsurprisingly, a gradual decline per decade from a few hours per day back in the 1940s and 1950s. When I was a kid in the 1970s and 1980s, after school we would be outdoors playing all the time. Now there’s a lot more indoor time and kids get less than an hour per day. So, we know with kids that there has been a gradual significant decline in amount of time spent outdoors.

I think we generally assume that is true for adults as well. People spend a lot more time indoors on screens than they used to. But, there isn’t any real solid data about how much time we’re getting outside.

24:21

Russ Roberts: But, is it fair to say that this explosion in skin cancer rates, which are often not distinguished between carcinoma and melanoma, one not as dangerous, one very not good–the melanoma. Is it fair to say that that rise is mostly due to increased tension from dermatologists who categorize blemishes unnecessarily, perhaps? And, was it good? As you said, it could have been good to find more of these. What do we know about the mortality rate from deaths from skin cancer, which is what we really care about?

Rowan Jacobsen: Right. And this has been looked at most closely with melanoma; and there’s been a lot of discussion in the research community about over-diagnosis with melanoma. Everyone agrees that over-diagnosis is going on, but again, maybe it’s not that much of a problem because you want to make sure you catch them all. You want to err on the side of taking off anything that might be problematic down the line.

Actually, one thing that we should mention is that until a melanoma becomes invasive, we don’t actually have any solid way of predicting whether it’s going to be a problem or not. So, all the ones that are caught very early on the skin and are called melanomas, they might be fine. But, obviously, if a doctor says to a patient, ‘It might be fine, or it might not. Do you want me to leave it?’ Like, ‘No.’ You’re going to get it cut off.

So, all these things get called melanomas and get cut off, and everyone agrees that some of them would not have been called melanomas back in the day.

And, there was actually a really interesting study a few years ago where they took slides of lesions that had been called melanomas 20 years ago. Or, lesions that might or might not be called melanomas. And, they took the exact same slides that had been done 20 years ago and showed them to a group of dermatologists 20 years later–including, actually, some of the same dermatologists who saw the slides 20 years earlier–and asked them to make the call: melanoma or not melanoma. And, 20 years ago, 11 were judged to be melanomas; and today, the exact same slides, 18 of them were judged to be melanomas. So, we’re getting more lenient on what we call melanomas.

And, like we said, that’s not necessarily a bad thing, but that is definitely a big factor in the rise of melanoma incidence. Because, when you look at mortality in melanoma, there’s been no change. Decade, after decade, after decade, mortality is totally flat, while incidence is rising steeply. And, as some scientists have pointed out, that’s the classic sign of over-diagnosis.

Russ Roberts: But, it could just be that we’re better at treating it and it’s good that we’re catching it early: it would have been worse otherwise.

27:32

Russ Roberts: I think the puzzle here–and you go into it in some complexity in the book in a thoughtful way–is that somewhere along the line, and you will tell me when, sunscreen gets invented. And, sunscreen, it’s a pretty modern creation. In ancient times, sunscreen was called going inside or sitting under a tree or putting your shirt on. Right?

Rowan Jacobsen: A shirt, right.

Russ Roberts: There are many ways to screen out the sun that don’t require a pasty, coconut-flavored chemical. But, at some point, that industry was born as a way to allow people to expose parts of their body and be outside, and even possibly get darker and in theory more attractive by getting a tan. And, that’s really complicated, and we’re going to talk a little bit about it because I think it’s really interesting.

But, this rise in skin cancer is coincident with the enormous expansion of the sunscreen industry. Which is surprising. All of a sudden, we have this special way to keep the harmful rays of the sun from hurting us. And yet, at the same time, when people are using a whole lot more of it than they did, either because it hadn’t been invented yet or it just wasn’t that available or people didn’t know much about it. All of a sudden, everybody knows about it. It’s everywhere, in all kind of different levels, and we’ll talk about SPF [Sun Protection Factor] in a little bit. I hope. But, why wouldn’t that have ended this epidemic? Why didn’t the creation of sunscreen–which I think used to be called in my days ‘suntan lotion’–but sunscreen, which sounds more scientific, why didn’t that end this problem?

Rowan Jacobsen: So, this is an inconvenient truth that has been lurking in the background and dogging the industry for a long time. Yeah, rates of skin cancer and rates of sunscreen use track each other spectacularly well. Decade after decade, sunscreen sales, through the roof compared to what they used to be; and yet rates of skin cancer also go up.

And, all the epidemiological studies tend to show that more sunscreen use is correlated with more skin cancer, which was also an inconvenient truth. Except you look at it and you’re like, ‘Well, that’s fine because whose using sunscreen?’ People who have paler skin who might need it more–

Russ Roberts: Go out more, yeah–

Rowan Jacobsen: People who are out in the sun more. That’s also–it can be a little awkward.

Russ Roberts: Classic reverse causation, right?

Rowan Jacobsen: Classic reverse causation, exactly.

But, it sure as heck hasn’t been helping as much as we might have been led to believe that it would. That’s clear. That SPF rates have gone up, adoption has gone up, people are using more, people are avoiding the sun more–it’s not turning skin cancer cases around at all. So, clearly, there’s more to the story than pure exposure to sunlight.

Russ Roberts: And, let’s talk a little bit about–it’s complicated, but talk a little bit about–so first, SPF, is that Sun Protection Factor?

Rowan Jacobsen: It is, it is.

Russ Roberts: So, this is a startling thing I learned from this, from your book, which is: an SPF of 15 and 30–I just thought they were numbers that meant more protection. But, they actually have a technical meaning–which is good because SPF sounds like science. It should be sigma-pi, whatever F is. Is there a Greek letter for F? Fi. It should sound more scientific even that way.

But when you say SPF-15, it looks scientific. Explain where those numbers come from and why it’s not as comforting as you might think. And, why SPF-60, which we’d be like, ‘Oh, well, that’s better,’ why it’s a little complicated.

Rowan Jacobsen: Right. It’s almost like extra strength Tylenol. The bigger number seems like we’re helping ourselves more.

So, SPF: that factor is how many more times you can stay out in the sun when you’re using it without burning, until you burn, than you could if you had nothing on. So, if you could stay in the sun for 10 minutes before you start to burn with nothing and you put SPF-20 on your body, you could stay in the sun for 200 minutes [=20×10] before you got the same amount of burn going on. And then, so SPF-50, you can stay out in the sun 50 times as long before you start to burn.

Originally, the FDA [Food and Drug Administration] wasn’t even going to let the industry use anything like SPF-50 because nobody should be staying in the sun that long. But, basically, that’s a measure of what percentage of the ultraviolet light it’s blocking.

And, it’s important to understand that sun burns are caused by UVB [Ultraviolet B]. We divide the ultraviolet light spectrum into UVA [Ultraviolet A] and UVB, and they actually have very different effects on the body.

And, UVB was the first one we worried about. It was also the only one the original sunscreens were able to block. So, those first sunscreens focused purely on UVB, which turned out to be a big problem. And, SPF only applies to UVB. So, you can have a sunscreen that’s SPF-50, which means it will block UVB 50-times as well as nothing, meaning basically it’s blocking 98% of the rays. Only 2% of the UVB rays are getting through to the skin. That doesn’t mean it’s blocking UVA at all, necessarily.

And that was a problem in the old sunscreens that we all were using in the 1970s and 1980s before what they called the broad spectrum or full spectrum sunscreens came on the market later.

Russ Roberts: So, in theory, one explanation for why sunscreen didn’t have much impact is that it wasn’t really doing what we’d hoped it would do–blocking the harmful part of the sunlight. But in theory, the improvements in those formulations should have made a difference. Correct?

Rowan Jacobsen: Yes, and it looks like they did. And, the new sunscreens are way better now than those sunscreens were a generation ago.

And actually, starting next year, we’re going to get even better ones on the market, it looks like. The sunscreens that are used in Europe and Asia and Israel are much better than the ones that are allowed in the United States–and we can get into why. But, the U.S. ones are a generation behind, basically. And, yeah, they used to only block UVB because originally, we thought UVB was what caused skin cancer. UVB is what causes sun burns; and yeah, those early–they weren’t sunscreens. They were sun tanning aids. The whole point was to keep you from burning so you could stay in the sun longer, so you could get even more bronze. And then, they sort of pivoted to a health aid later on.

But they were only blocking UVB, because at the time, the doctors thought that UVA was not a problem. UVB, we knew it had enough energy in those light photons that if it hit a DNA [Deoxyribonucleic acid] molecule in your skin, it could actually mess up the DNA and give you skin cancer. So, we thought we had to block those UVBs. And, the original ingredients that were used in sunscreen–those chemical filters–were able to do that. So, it seemed serendipitous: Block the sun burn, block the UVB so you’re not going to get skin cancer; let the UVA through, and you’re going to get tan from that. Perfect.

By the 1980s and definitely by the 1990s, everyone was realizing that UVA was actually indirectly causing skin cancer as well and was probably a bigger problem than UVB all along. Which suddenly made those sunscreens look terrible–like, possibly worse than nothing–because by blocking sunburn and making you think you were safe from skin cancer, they were allowing you to stay in the sun–depending on the SPF–10, 15, 20, 30-times longer. And, all of that time, gobs of UVA was pouring into your body and probably contributing to melanoma, we now know.

Russ Roberts: That’s part of the problem.

Rowan Jacobsen: I think it’s actually a huge problem, and it has kind of been swept under the rug a little bit.

Now, mostly broad-spectrum sunscreens are on the market. And frankly, no sunscreen that doesn’t block UVB and UVA should even be allowed on the market, I don’t think. And, they’ve gotten much better. And you see that–in all the observational studies that track sunscreen use and skin cancer, the early ones from the 1970s show no effect, and often a reverse effect. It was worse to use the sunscreens. By the 1980s and 1990s, it’s looking like an even wash.

And now, the more modern ones, it’s starting to look better for sunscreen now.

So, I think the new ones are pretty good. I think they can be a very useful part of any sun program that you want to develop. And, they’re going to get better still in the United States; and they’ve been better for a while in most of the rest of the world.

37:30

Russ Roberts: So, let’s talk about Vitamin D. I think we’ve talked about my Vitamin D issues on the program in the past–

Russ Roberts: I’m always ready to sacrifice my body for science for my listeners.

You go to the doctor for a physical–and this has probably been true–I’m 71. But I suspect it’s been true for at least 30 years. You go–in my life–I go to the doctor. Blood is drawn. I get a bunch of other tests. And, when they draw my blood; they tell me I’m Vitamin D deficient. And then, they say, ‘Most Americans are because we work indoors and we don’t get much sun.’

And, I said at the beginning of this program, of our conversation, that if you’d asked me what’s good about the sun, I would have said, ‘Well, it’s good for your mental health. It puts you in a better mood, you don’t get blue in the winter.’ But, of course, there is this other thing I forgot to mention, which is Vitamin D.

And Vitamin D is not a small thing. It’s kind of important. And my position–don’t take this as medical advice, folks; Rowan will chime in with his view–but, my position has always been it’s not obvious that taken an enormous supplement of Vitamin D in the form of a pill, which raises your Vitamin D score, actually achieves the things you would get from an organic increase in Vitamin D from being out in the sun more. Which are stronger bones, other things, I think reduced risk of shingles. It’s not a small thing. It’s kind of really important, so you shouldn’t ignore Vitamin D deficiency.

But, when my doctor would say, ‘Take this pill,’ I would say, ‘Well, I looked at the side effects,’ which include things I’m not going to mention because maybe they’re not true, so I don’t want to mention them. But, I would say, ‘Well, I looked at the side effects’ It’s not obvious to me that this is a good trade-off, especially since I’m not convinced that raising my score is the same as reducing my risk of, say, shingles or bad bones.’ What do we know about this?

Rowan Jacobsen: Yeah, it is starting to look a little bit like it’s, like, cheating on the test basically to take the pill. It’s not doing the thing that was the goal all along. But, it took us a while to get to that point.

Back in the 1980s, it started to look like Vitamin D was really important to health. Because, again, of all this observational data where you look at populations and the group that has low Vitamin D levels has higher rates of every disease you can think of across the board. Cancer, cardiovascular diseases, autoimmune diseases, Alzheimer’s, other types of dementia, diabetes, you name it. Low Vitamin D looked–it was associated at least, with–

Russ Roberts: Correlated–

Rowan Jacobsen: with all of these different things. Yeah, yeah. So, it seemed like–and then the mechanistic studies in the lab would also show that add more Vitamin D to these cells and it prevents cells from growing cancerous and improves membranes. We know originally that it helps mineralization in the bones so you get strong bones from Vitamin D, going back to the rickets days.

Anyway, it looked like there were reasons to think that it really was kind of a wonder drug that could help all these conditions. But by then, by the 1980s, we were also really worried about skin cancer, so doctors weren’t about to say, ‘Go out and expose your skin to sunlight,’ which is the natural way to make Vitamin D. So, everyone started recommending supplementation, and people did it. It’s the most prescribed supplement in the world, I believe.

And, there have been huge, really rigorous, high-powered clinical trials where half the people get Vitamin D pills and half the people get placebos, and they’re tracked for years–because it seemed like it was worth putting all that money into these trials because this really did look like a wonder drug. They have completely failed across the board where we know that unless you are extremely Vitamin D deficient, raising the amount in your blood through a pill doesn’t help with any of these conditions.

And, there’s even been the editors of the New England Journal of Medicine have published editorials saying, ‘Stop prescribing Vitamin D pills. It’s not helping.’ But, that hasn’t happened. It’s still the most prescribed supplement.

I think some doctors know that it doesn’t do much, but it doesn’t hurt. It makes their patients feel better and placebos are not nothing.

Russ Roberts: Yeah.

Rowan Jacobsen: Some doctors probably don’t, haven’t looked at some of the research.

But, yeah, so there’s the conundrum. People who naturally have high levels of D in their body have lower rates of all these diseases. People who artificially raise the level in their blood through a pill, it doesn’t help at all. So, how can that be?

42:46

Russ Roberts: So, the real question, of course, that we all care about is: If I spend more time in the sun and raise my measured Vitamin D, will that help? In other words, many times the challenge of these studies–these observational studies in epidemiology, which are my view a cesspool, intellectual cesspool, to use a phrase.–the question is what happens if you, an individual, then becomes one of the people who looks like those other healthy people because you now have more Vitamin D on your score, but you don’t have the other factors that we haven’t controlled for? Whether it’s where you live or your latitude, your diet, your income, your genetics, etc., etc. So, there’s always a question whether this is real.

In response, my doctor wanted me to supplement. I said, ‘No.’ I said, ‘Give me a shot. I’m going to spend more time in the sun.’

I asked Claude, I told Claude, ‘I live in Israel.’ Israel is very sunny–

Rowan Jacobsen: Very sunny–

Russ Roberts: a huge portion of the year.

Russ Roberts: And, it’s at a particular latitude. Which is not as sunny as some–the intensity of it is not as intense as some, but more intense than other places. And I gave it my age. And, where you catch the sun, if you roll up your shirt sleeves or go without a hat, which is not ideal for other reasons. How much is this going to help? And, the answer is: Not a lot. It’s really hard when you’re 70-something-years-old. Your body doesn’t make Vitamin D as well as it used to from sunlight. The machinery, the factory, is sluggish. If you do it at 9:00 in the morning, or 8:30 or 8:15 when I want to have my coffee with my wife on our porch that gets sunlight, it’s not so intense at 8:15. You really need to do it between one and three; but I can’t really afford to be out in the sun–I’m working, and so on.

So, however, I got my score into a range that made my doctor happy. But of course, I raised my risk of skin cancer. So, these are the trade-offs that mature adults need to face, and I want you to talk about some of the factors that might also weigh in on that. Like, where you live. Like, your skin complexion; like how often you’re out in the sun, etc., etc. It’s complicated, but there’s some things we can probably think about thoughtfully, rather than just never go in the sun or go out in the sun all the time and get your Vitamin D up to a million.

Rowan Jacobsen: Yeah, exactly. Moderation, once again, is going to end up being the best policy here.

You mentioned once you’re 70, it’s harder to make Vitamin D. And yeah, that’s important. I was just looking at some numbers on this. Basically, yeah, by the time we’re 70, we’re only producing half as much Vitamin D for the same amount of sunlight as when we’re in our 30s. There’s no good: but on that, it just sucks.

Russ Roberts: It’s the way it is. It’s life. There’s a lot of things that decline after 70, trust me. That’s not the only thing that gets more challenging.

Rowan Jacobsen: Right, right.

Russ Roberts: Your Vitamin D production is not the biggest thing to worry about.

Rowan Jacobsen: Wisdom, however, way up.

Russ Roberts: Way up, way up.

Rowan Jacobsen: One of the questions with the whole Vitamin D story is whether Vitamin D was actually responsible for all those health benefits in the people that were getting more sunlight, or whether it was just along for the ride. It was an indicator of sun exposure, but it wasn’t the agent that was bringing the good health necessarily. That, it could be other things about sunlight. So, even if you’re 70, you’re not making Vitamin D like you used to, you probably are still getting some of these benefits of sunlight from other things, which we can talk about if you want.

Russ Roberts: We will in a minute, I want to come to that next.

47:00

Russ Roberts: But, continue your thought about that trade-off of: Whatever the benefits are of sunlight, Vitamin D, and the other things that we’ll share in a minute, is it worth it? That’s the question a person has to always ask.

And, in the world we live in today, the answer is: Never. That’s why I like your book. I’m not going to say your book is–that everything in it is true and listeners should ignore the risks of skin cancer. That would be stupid. You don’t say it either.

But, overwhelmingly, the sun is poison in our minds. This narrative has become extremely well entrenched. It’s death. It’s skin cancer. It’s death. Vitamin D, okay, fine, maybe it’s good for some things. You should supplement. Okay, well, it turned out it doesn’t work so well. So, what do you do now? Should you go out in the sun if you’re–forget 71–if you’re 51, 21, 11?

Rowan Jacobsen: Yeah. So, the trade-off question is the right question to ask. And, the first person I ever saw ask that question was a dermatologist in Scotland named Richard Weller, who had done some research that showed that when sunlight hits skin, it produces nitric oxide in the skin. And, nitric oxide is a well-known vasodilator. It allows blood vessels to expand and lowers blood pressure because of it. It’s used in a lot of heart medications. Even Viagra is based on nitric oxide. It lets more blood flow.

His studies have shown that shining the equivalent of 20, 25 minutes of summer sunlight on volunteers–his grad students–just shining it on their arm would lower their blood pressure. It raised nitric oxide in their blood. It produced nitric oxide in the skin; that nitric oxide went into the circulatory system; and lowered blood pressure by, like, five or six points. Which would be enough worldwide to reduce deaths from heart disease by a million people or something.

So, he was the first person to ask that trade-off question. He ended up doing a TED Talk [Technology, Entertainment, Design], which you can still find out there.

Russ Roberts: We’ll link to it.

Rowan Jacobsen: And, the reason he wanted to ask the trade-off question was because–skin cancer, we hear a lot about it, but it doesn’t actually kill very many people. It’s not a significant cause of mortality. In the United States, it causes–about 10,000 people a year die from skin cancer. That’s not nothing. If we could get 10,000 to go to zero, that would be great. But, cardiovascular disease is closer to a million people, and cancer is maybe 600,000 people, so those are the biggies. And diabetes is another big one; and infectious disease.

So, skin cancer worldwide, it’s not even on the charts in terms of mortality. It’s not one of the top 40 causes of death in the world.

So, if sunlight would slightly raise the risk of skin cancer but would slightly lower the risk of cardiovascular disease alone, that would be a massive win in terms of the trade-off. I didn’t get this new study in the book, but Weller and his group just came out with a new pre-print about a few months ago that looked more specifically at the trade-off question. And, to do so, they used the U.K. Biobank, which is this fantastic dataset that more and more researchers are using.

And, what happened is back in the early 2000s, there was this push to create an incredible health dataset in the United Kingdom, so they got 500,000 volunteers in the mix, took every health metric they could, questionnaires. Got every possible granular detail about these people’s health, and they were all ages 40 to 69, so they were all middle age. And then, they’ve been tracking that group of 500,000 people ever since, so we now have about 20 years of data on them. And, it’s such a rich source of data that even though observational data can be an intellectual cesspool, this is a pretty good one. So, you could get away from some of the problems if you’re using small datasets.

So, Weller took a look at that group; and you have location data for all of them, and some of them have even had their sun exposure tracked. But, even if you haven’t attached a light-sensing wristwatch to the volunteers, you can check the satellite data for their location and get a pretty good sense of how much light they’ve been exposed to on average.

So, he just published a pre-print that tracked this group–I think they had 420,000 people ultimately in their study–mortality and incidence of disease against sun exposure. And, they didn’t just do sun exposure, they also asked the people about sun habits. Did they seek sun? Did they actively try to get some sunlight? So, they scored everyone for a sun-seeking habit and tracked that against disease.

And, what they found was that in all of the 420,000 people, about 45,000 had died. Period. Almost all cardiovascular disease and cancer were responsible for most of those diseases. Only 440 had died of melanoma; only 60 had died of other skin cancers out of 420,000 people. So, skin cancer doesn’t kill very many people.

And what they found was that, yes, the people who got a lot of sun versus a little sun were about 20% more likely to die of melanoma. The people who got a whole lot of sun were actually no more likely to die of melanoma. So, there was a slight rise in melanoma deaths for the high-sun people, but that amounted to less than 100 people overall over 20 years in this set of 420,000 people. Meanwhile, they were far less likely to die from cardiovascular disease or cancer, and some other diseases that contributed minor numbers. So, I think the ratio was 75:1, that more light, for every one extra death from melanoma that it created, was saving about 75 deaths from other bigger, more problematic diseases.

Russ Roberts: And I have a lot of confidence in that you’d want to know more about the connection between sunlight and those diseases. The nitric oxide is at least a mechanism. Is it plausible of that magnitude? You’d have to look into that. You have to make sure you control for income and other factors. I’m sure they tried. I don’t know how well they did it. It could be that rich people tend to have better health than poor people, and they can go on vacation more so they get more sun–so it’s a false correlation.

But, putting all that to the side, it’s provocative; and it’s an encouragement for people to, I would just say, to consider the trade-offs. Where you come down on that trade-off is a personal decision that everybody has to make on their own. But, it is thought-provoking.

55:23

Russ Roberts: I confess, there’s a moment in your book–it’s a really wonderful, personal–it’s not a large part of the book, but there’s some nice stories in the book of your own experiences in doing the research, and where you went, and your attempts to get sunlight to help you sleep better. We’re not going to get into that, but it’s really–there’s some lovely writing there.

But there’s one moment–and it’s such a small thing, but I just wanted to mention it. It’s not scientific: This is not a scientific point I’m about to make. But I can put a gloss of science over it. I’m going to do that and let you comment.

When it’s been a long, cold winter and there comes a moment in springtime when you’re in the sunshine and you can feel the heat of the sun the way you can a fire in your fireplace. All of a sudden, the sun, which has merely been a pallid light in the sky through December, January, and February, and some of March, all of a sudden, you feel its warmth. And I think–you talk about it in your book that you feel like it’s getting into your bones. And you suggest, actually, there’s now some evidence that it does get into your bones.

And, the idea that we evolved on a planet with big ball 93 million miles away that sends photons our way constantly–it would be weird if it was a killer.

Now, you have to temper that, because it is a killer–up to a point. But, that it wouldn’t have health benefits would be weird. That you would have to constantly, especially when we were hunter-gatherers, you’d have to be constantly being in the shade of the trees to make sure–while you’re in the Savannah where not much shade of the trees. Anyway, the whole idea of it is–it’s comforting. I’ll just say it that way. It’s not science. It’s comforting to think that the sun is something of a friend. And, through most of human civilization–I mean, we’ve worshiped it. I think that was a mistake. It’s not a god. But, it is a pretty extraordinary thing.

And so, I like the idea–is all I’m going to say–that sunlight, especially on that first April or whatever month it is when you actually feel the sun on your face, and it lifts your spirits. It’s a very human thing.

Rowan Jacobsen: Yeah, I’m so glad you brought that up. Because learning more about the science behind this and becoming more comfortable with the sun, it improves your life on a daily basis. You realize that you had that fear in the back of your mind that was probably unnecessary. And so, just like with anything else when you thought you had to fear something and you suddenly realize that maybe your fears were a little overblown–like, that improves your life.

And, the evolutionary part of this, I think, is actually really important, because as you correctly point out, a lot of the information we have about what looked like to be these benefits of sunlight are coming from observational studies. And, yes, the scientists do try to control for all the usual confounders, but that is a dark art.

Russ Roberts: Yeah, it’s a dark art. Well said.

Rowan Jacobsen: So, all we can do is go, ‘Well, that’s interesting.’ And, we’re not going to get great randomized clinical trials where half the people expose themselves to a lot of sunshine and half don’t, because it would be unethical since we think they might be raising their risk of skin cancer. No funding agency is ever going to approve those studies.

So, it’s food for thought; but what’s interesting here is we also–the reasons that we believe that skin cancer, that sunlight causes skin cancer, are also from observational studies. We’re not doing long-term clinical trials where we tell half the people to go out and fry themselves and we see if they get skin cancer. So, it’s all kind of guesswork, and any time you’re in that kind of situation, you kind of then want to default to evolutionary norms and ask: Well, what do we have a pretty good track record of doing and what’s the weird intervention that’s new?

And so, in this case, human beings spent their first hundreds of thousands of years getting 12 hours of sunlight a day. No other species that’s out there seems to be suffering from too much sunlight. It seems to be just us that are having this issue. So, what changed? Well, we switched to indoor life, mostly in the past 100 years. And, that’s the weird thing that we need to start being skeptical about. Did something happen in that switch to indoor life that messed things up?

Russ Roberts: Yeah. We are–as you point out; you do discuss evolution and our origins in the first part of the book–we are relatively hairless. We’re hairy, but we’re not furry. And, that’s an interesting thing in and of itself that would seem to be a bad strategy if the sun was bad for you. Of course, there may have been some counterbalancing benefits for leaving survivors in the gene pool, and so on. So, it’s all complicated.

1:01:22

Russ Roberts: But, you close your book with some simple advice for adults and children. Do you want to share that? And listeners, take this with a grain of salt, and I encourage you to read Rowan’s book. And, if I were younger, and maybe if I were a parent worried about my children’s exposure to sun, I might go investigate some of the observational and non-observational studies to try to get a feel for how reliable they might be. Maybe you’ve exaggerated them. Maybe you’ve failed to add enough caveats. But, what you got?

Rowan Jacobsen: Yeah, and I would totally agree. Take it all with a grain of salt. I’m certainly not a doctor either, and people shouldn’t be forming their medical opinions just from my book. But I do hope people start looking into it because of my book.

And, we’re now in this kind of amazing era where we have these incredibly powerful research assistants on-hand all the time–the LLMs [large language models]–that have read everything. And, it is pretty amazing: If you ask them, ‘Show me the studies on X or Y,’ they’ll pull them up. And, you don’t want to trust the AI [artificial intelligence] because it can get the conclusions wrong sometimes, but it will point you toward the sources, and then go to the direct sources. They can’t be hidden; it finds them all. So, it’s actually better than it’s ever been to look around and find what the foundational research is on these topics. So, that’s really worth doing.

But, in terms of what I think can be actionable advice for people, it’s: Err on the side of moderation all the way, but don’t get zero sun exposure. It’s very clear, no matter how we look at it, that zero sun exposure is not healthy for people. It’s also clear, and every scientist I’ve spoken with agrees, that burning is bad. If you’re actually getting a sunburn, it means you have fried those cells beyond the point that they can recover, so they’re basically all just committing suicide and taking themselves out of the game so they won’t turn into cancer. But they don’t even do that always successfully. So, burns are truly a sign that you’ve gone too far.

And, I know from my personal experience that even when I’m trying not to burn, it can sneak up on you. So, my own rule is to err well on the safe side of burning–to never get close to a burn. That said, I don’t sweat the small stuff. I’m going back to what doctors told us to do in the 1950s and 1960s. Don’t get sunburn at the beach, don’t get overexposed. But a little incidental sun exposure during your day is probably a very healthy thing.

That’s really going to be influenced by who you are, where you are, and especially your skin tone. People with darker skin tones can take a whole lot more sun exposure than people with light skin tones. And, people with the lightest skin tones, who often have red hair and reddish freckles, are the ones who are super-susceptible to melanoma. So, they are the ones who do truly need to really be careful. The recommendations are kind of written for them, with the assumption that everybody else can just do the same thing and they won’t be harmed by that. But, now we’re realizing that people with darker skin tones really shouldn’t be doing the same thing as the people with very fair skin.

Russ Roberts: My guest today has been Rowan Jacobsen. His book is In Defense of Sunlight. Rowan, thanks for being part of EconTalk.

Rowan Jacobsen: Thanks, Russ. It was a pleasure.



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