Mortgage Rates Today, Tuesday, June 2: A Sudden Jump

Mortgage rates took an abrupt upward turn as news spread yesterday that Iran was suspending negotiations. Even though talks may be continuing in some form, for rates the damage was done — at least for now. As the situation in Iran evolves at times hour by hour, we’ve watched mortgage rates rise and fall right along with hopes for a peaceful resolution.

This morning the average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.42% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 10 basis points higher than yesterday and four basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

If you’re watching mortgage rates avidly, this kind of one-day rise can feel disappointing. But take a look at the 30-day chart just below this. (Specifically, take a look at its y-axis.) It may feel like mortgage rates have been all over the place, since yes, we’ve definitely seen ups and downs. But overall, rates have mostly stayed within a pretty finite range.

For more on why the Iran war has had such a strong influence on mortgage rates, plus a deep-dive on what’s happening economically on the home front, keep reading below the chart.

Average mortgage rates, last 30 days

🤓 From the Nerds: Kate on Rates

📈 What influences mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

The war in Iran — or more precisely, U.S. bond markets’ reactions to the war in Iran — has been a major mover of mortgage rates since the conflict began. It’s less about what exactly is happening overseas and more how that affects things on the homefront, most notably, inflation. To try to distill it into a single sentence, disruptions to oil production and international shipping have throttled supply chains and raised prices, accelerating the rate of inflation.

Last week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) showed that in April inflation reached its worst level since May 2023. Inflation makes life uncomfortable for all of us, but many headlines focused on how uncomfortable it might be about to make one man: Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve’s new chair.

Even if Warsh successfully shrugs off the president’s relentless requests for lower interest rates, the new chair has his own rationale for rate cuts. The thing is, rapid inflation generally means the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates, not lower them. Higher borrowing costs are meant to reduce spending and demand, cooling inflation. The Federal Reserve targets a 2% PCE; April’s was 3.8%.

This week, we’re getting a ton of news about the Fed’s other chief concern, employment. (Sustainable inflation and a healthy labor market are the central bankers’ recipe for a stable U.S. economy.)

There are three reports incoming, each a bit different:

Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics drops later this morning, so we’ll talk about it tomorrow. JOLTS shows movement in the workforce, with stats on the number of job openings, layoffs and quits. This is going to be April data.

Payroll administration firm ADP will release its May National Employment Report tomorrow. The ADP report only covers private employment, but it gained prominence during the government shutdown when it was the most comprehensive jobs data available.

And on Friday, the big one: May’s Employment Situation Summary, better known as the jobs report. This data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics gives us, among other measures, the country’s official unemployment rate.

These measures have all been pretty strong lately, despite, y’know, everything. NerdWallet senior economist Elizabeth Renter notes that the U.S. job market is always complex, but “right now, it’s even more puzzling, as the labor market is shifting under changing demographics, broad economic uncertainty in the face of war and shifting policies, and the potential structural changes introduced by AI.”

If it looks like the job market is faltering or even just showing signs of increased stress, the Federal Reserve’s job will get that much more complicated. The Fed usually stimulates employment by cutting rates. But lowering interest rates in an inflationary environment risks further fueling inflation. Should both inflation and the labor market look imperiled, the Fed may have to decide which fire to put out and which one to allow to burn a bit longer.

Even though the Federal Reserve doesn’t set mortgage rates, the Fed’s actions influence the entire economy. Mortgage rates would likely head lower if it looked like Fed rate cuts were imminent, but if the central bankers are looking to raise rates, well, mortgage rates could rise, too.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.92% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

🔒 Should I lock my rate?

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.

🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

About the author

Kate Wood is a lending expert and certified financial health counselor (CHFC) who joined NerdWallet in 2019. With an educational background in sociology, Kate feels strongly about issues like inequality in homeownership and higher education, and relishes any opportunity to demystify government programs. Prior to NerdWallet, she wrote about home remodeling, decor and maintenance for This Old House.

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