Kalshi bettors prediction Powell to stay as Fed Governor

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday he would stay on as governor after his term as chief ends, an event Kalshi bettors called.

Bettors had placed a 30% chance Powell would resign as a member of the Fed Board of Governors by June.

“I’ve said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality, and I stand by that. I’m encouraged by recent developments, and I’m watching the remaining steps in this process carefully,” Powell said near the beginning of his post-meeting news conference on Wednesday.

He had also said in March he would not step down until the criminal inquiry into him by the Department of Justice was resolved. On Friday, the justice department dropped its probe into Powell.

Powell’s remarks come after President Donald Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, advanced through a vote in the Senate Banking Committee, putting him closer to the chairmanship.

Trump and Powell have clashed since the president’s second term began last year. The White House has been frustrated that the Fed hasn’t cut interest rates as quickly or as sharply as the Trump administration would like. Some observers worry Trump selected Warsh to push his perspective on rates, though Warsh has pushed back on those concerns, saying he believes in the independence of the Fed.

Kalshi bettors still think Powell will leave by the end of 2027, with a 76% chance he does that. Powell’s term as a governor technically ends in 2028.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.

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