Sagility shares rocket 8% after Nomura initiates coverage with buy rating, sees it as top AI beneficiary

Shares of Sagility rallied as much as 8% to their day’s high of Rs 40.22 on the BSE on Wednesday after international brokerage firm Nomura initiated coverage on the stock with a Buy call and a target price of Rs 55. The price implies an upside potential of 47.4% from current market levels.

Nomura says Sagility stands to be a key beneficiary of the shift toward AI-led transformation in healthcare services. As clients move from transactional engagements to outcome-based models, consolidation is increasingly favouring vertical specialists over horizontal point-solution providers. Clients looking for sustained, multi-year cost efficiencies require end-to-end operational capabilities, which vertical players are better positioned to deliver. Sagility’s deep domain expertise in healthcare strengthens its positioning in this evolving landscape.

Importantly, engagement services, which contribute around 30% of revenue, are unlikely to face meaningful disruption. This is due to regulatory constraints and the inherent complexity of healthcare processes. That said, AI is expected to significantly enhance operational efficiency. Tools like Agent Assist, powered by generative AI and analytics, can streamline workflows and improve productivity. However, a large portion of these efficiency gains, estimated at 70-80%, is likely to be passed on to clients, which should keep margins broadly stable over the medium term.

Sagility is a technology-enabled, pure-play healthcare solutions and services provider, catering primarily to payers, which account for about 90% of its revenue from US health insurance companies, and to providers, contributing the remaining 10% from hospitals. As of 3QFY26, the company served 81 client groups, with an average client relationship spanning 18 years and a strong retention rate of 95%. It operates a vertically integrated model supported by a distributed workforce, allowing for operational flexibility, while its deep domain expertise in healthcare enables it to deliver effective and high-quality solutions across stakeholders.

Nomura expects Sagility to deliver healthy growth, with revenue (in USD terms) and EPS (in INR terms) projected to clock CAGRs of 12% and 20%, respectively, over FY26–28F. Key risks to this outlook include a slowdown in the US healthcare payer industry, reduced outsourcing of operational work, potential disruption to existing business models, and the emergence of new competitors.

Interestingly, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have steadily increased their stake in Sagility over the period. Their shareholding rose from 7.25% in December 2024 to 7.47% in March 2025, before seeing a sharp jump to 14.07% in June 2025. The upward trend continued, with holdings inching up to 14.87% in September 2025 and further to 21.35% by December 2025.Foreign institutional investors (FIIs), on the other hand, also showed a clear increase in participation, though at a more gradual pace initially. Their stake moved from 3.77% in December 2024 to 3.38% in March 2025, followed by a notable rise to 5.98% in June 2025. While there was a slight dip to 5.59% in September 2025, FII holdings surged to 10.25% by December 2025.Sagility’s share price has had a rough start to 2026, down 12% in the past month. The share price has tanked 15% in the last six months and nearly 30% since the beginning of the year.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)