RAJESH PALVIYA HEAD OF TECHNICAL AND DERIVATIVES, AXIS SECURITIES
Where is Nifty headed? On weekly chart, Nifty has formed a strong bullish candle accompanied by a long upper shadow, indicating profit booking near record highs. On the downside, 20-day SMA at 25,445 is expected to provide initial support. A stronger support zone is placed at 25,253– 25,108, which coincides with 200-day SMA and the lower boundary of the bullish gap area. Sustaining above this zone remains crucial to preserve the broader positive momentum. On the upside, 26,000–26,350 is likely to act as a major resistance area, while 25,800 stands out as an immediate hurdle. Momentum indicators remain supportive. Trading Strategy: Traders may consider initiating a moderately bullish Bull Call Spread for the February 10 weekly expiry to reduce premium outflow and lower the breakeven. Weekly options positioning shows Call writers shifting higher towards 26,000, while Put writers have moved up from 25,200 to 25,500, indicating improving support and a constructive bias.
Strategy Construction (Net Delta Long): • Buy 25,700 Call @ 90 • Sell 25,900 Call @ 32 This results in a net premium outflow of 58 points, with maximum loss capped at Rs 3,770, making it a defined-risk strategy with a break-even at 25,758, and capping the maximum gain at Rs 9,230. TOP STOCK BETS Bajaj Finance Buy Futures: Rs 982–975, Target: Rs 1,029– 1,053, Stop Loss: Rs 958 Call unwinding was seen across 950–970 strikes, while the 970 Put has added 743 contracts, taking total open interest to 2,112, reflecting strong support formation. Based on this setup, we recommend buying. KEI Industries Buy Futures Rs 4,467–4,438, Target: Rs 4,630– 4,720, Stop Loss: Rs 4,389, CMP: A firm put base at 4,300– 4,400 and call unwinding at 4,500 suggests the bullish momentum may extend.
AgenciesNILESH JAIN VP – EQUITY TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, CENTRUM BROKING
Where is Nifty headed? Nifty snapped its two-week losing streak and ended the week with a close above its 100-DMA placed at 25,660, forming a strong bullish candle on weekly chart. It opened sharply higher during the week and moved close to its record highs, but failed to sustain above key resistance at 26,300. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 25,460, aligning with 21-DMA, while next major support at 200- DMA is seen around 25,250. This week, Nifty is expected to gradually edge higher and retest 50-DMA near 25,800; a sustained move above this level could open the door for a further upside towards 26,000.
Trading Strategy: Given the expectation of a gradual upmove, we recommend deploying a Bull Call Spread in the upcoming weekly expiry. The strategy involves buying one lot of the 25,700 Calls at a premium of Rs 90 and simultaneously selling one lot of the 25,900 Calls at a premium of Rs 33, resulting in a net debit of Rs 57.
A stop loss can be placed at Rs 20 on the spread. The strategy offers upside targets of Rs 90 and Rs 120 per lot, while the breakeven point is placed at 25,757.
TOP STOCK BETS Manappuram Finance Target: Rs 333, Stop Loss: Rs 283, CMP: Rs 301 Stock remains in a strong uptrend, forming higher tops and bottoms on weekly chart, with fresh long build-up seen in the derivatives segment. Momentum indicators on the daily chart have given a fresh buy crossover, with immediate support at Rs 283 and a move towards a record high near Rs 333.
Action Construction Equipment Buy, Target Price: Rs 1,020, Stop Loss: Rs 870, CMP: Rs 919 Stock rebounded sharply from lower levels and moved above its 50-DMA near Rs 913, with the move supported by higher volumes. The setup indicates further upside towards Rs 1,020, while immediate support is seen around Rs 870.
ROHAN SHAH TECHNICAL ANALYST, ASIT C MEHTA INVESTMENT
Where is Nifty headed? The sharp gap-up following the India-US trade deal once again faced resistance near 26,300 zone, leading to selling pressure. In the near term, the index is expected to remain volatile and consolidate within a broader range, with 26,000– 26,200 acting as the upper band and 25,200–25,000 as key support.
Trading Strategy: Any bounce in the index towards the resistance zone should be utilised as a selling opportunity. Short Nifty February futures around 26,000 zone, keeping a stop loss above 26,300, for a downside target of 25,500–25,200 levels.
TOP STOCK BETSONGC Target Price: Rs 300, Stop Loss: Rs 254, CMP: Rs 269
Over the past month, the stock broke out of a prolonged consolidation range on strong volumes with a wide bullish candle. Last week, prices rebounded after retesting the breakout level, reinforcing the bullish setup.
United Spirits Target Price: Rs 1,530, Stop Loss: Rs 1,300, CMP: Rs 1,377
Stock showing strong price symmetry, with an ascending triangle formation accompanied by a positive RSI divergence. On daily timeframe, an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern has also formed, adding confirmation to the bullish setup.
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