Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday. This is not a regular Tuesday, as today we will get the , which is very important data that will either confirm that the Fed should continue with the if jobs come weak, and if the ticks higher. As you know, weak jobs data would likely push yields and the lower, while a positive surprise with strong numbers could allow the dollar to recover.
Looking at the price action, we can see a clean five wave decline from the December 9 high, and it now looks like the market is pausing. This pause could be a triangle, or if we get more upside through 98.40 it could even unfold as an a-b-c structure, which is my preferred wave count to track.
Especially if we retest the 98.53 area, this would be a very important resistance zone then, that could trigger a strong and sizeable decline in the second half of the week. In either case, the dollar remains in a bearish structure, but given the important events this week, we cannot rule out a retest of higher resistance levels first.
