In times of calm, but especially in times of chaos, risk management strategies and their execution must be dictated by context and control. Prioritizing key risks and crafting appropriate responses is essential to keeping the business going. The battle for digital sovereignty is now unfolding in real time, following this exact script.
Three Events Show The Paths Toward Digital Sovereignty
A trifecta of headline-making events in the last few days and weeks – the AWS East outage, the Dutch government’s seizure of Nexperia, and the European Commission’s Cloud Sovereignty Framework – is pushing the conversation forward, outlining new emerging risks, and exposing the consequences of misplaced trust. These three separate events reveal that sovereignty today is multidimensional. And that is not just about where data resides, but also:
Who controls the technology (technological sovereignty)
Who acts within it (human sovereignty)
Who sets the rules (regulatory sovereignty)
At the same time, the power is shifting: from global corporations to nation states, and from global architectures to regional ecosystems. It all depends on how control is exercised, and what technology executives and risk professionals must consider as they prepare. Each of these events carries a strong undercurrent of digital sovereignty, with the potential to significantly impact organizations.
1. AWS Outage: Hidden Dependencies and Sovereignty Risks
The October 20th AWS US-East-1 outage affected many non-US entities due to dependencies like authentication and API calls. This incident highlights risks around three dimensions: 1) Concentration risk – About 75% of the European cloud market is controlled by three US hyperscalers – mainly AWS and Microsoft; 2) Jurisdictional vulnerability – AWS’s foreign ownership means it may prioritize resolving issues in its home country, potentially at the expense of other regions; 3) The risks of relying on foreign vendors, especially in cases of non-unintentional or politically-influenced service disruptions.
2. Nexperia Seizure: Sovereignty Through Chip Access
The Dutch government has recently taken control of Chinese-owned semiconductor maker Nexperia in the Netherlands. In response, Nexperia’s Chinese unit stated that employees in China can refuse orders from the Dutch HQ. This situation introduces a new sovereignty issue: how to maintain operational control when your business is caught in a geopolitical or national security incident. Technology and risk leaders must now: 1) Plan for scenarios where a foreign government takes control of a subsidiary; 2) Prepare for internal resistance from employees influenced by national directives; 3) Shape organizational responses to protect technology and business continuity.
3. EU Cloud Sovereignty Framework: Regulatory Control and Competitive Shift
The European Commission’s framework introduces Sovereignty Effectiveness Assurance Levels (SEAL) to evaluate cloud providers’ compliance with sovereignty requirements. Providers must meet minimum SEAL levels to qualify for tenders. A Sovereignty Score helps determine alignment with EU goals. This creates a new competitive arena where providers compete not just on speed or AI performance, but on jurisdictional purity, autonomy, and resilience. For technology and risk leaders, the message is clear: sovereignty cannot be retrofitted. It must be designed into architecture, procurement, and partnerships from the start.
Sovereignty Becomes A Design Principle
The EU cloud sovereignty framework supports the EU Data Strategy, Digital Markets Act, and AI Act, embedding sovereignty as a baseline design principle. Like GDPR and NIS2, the SEAL approach assigns targets rather than prescribing measures, allowing flexibility in achieving mandated outcomes. Forrester’s clients can use the minimum viable sovereignty approach to get practical guidance on reaching their desired, viable, and feasible level of sovereignty.
Interested in understanding more about these events and in exploring digital sovereignty further? Reach out to Forrester to schedule a guidance session or inquiry and get support on your sovereign journey.
