Updated on March 12th, 2026 by Nathan Parsh
Nucor Corporation (NUE) is the largest steel producer in North America. Despite operating in the notoriously volatile raw materials sector, Nucor is also a remarkably consistent dividend growth stock. The company is in the S&P 500 Index and has increased its annual dividend for over 53 consecutive years, which qualifies it to be a member of the Dividend Aristocrats list.
The Dividend Aristocrats have long histories of raising their dividends each year, even during recessions, which makes them relatively rare finds within the broader S&P 500. With this in mind, we created a list of all 69 Dividend Aristocrats, along with important financial metrics like price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields.
You can download an Excel spreadsheet with the full list of Dividend Aristocrats by clicking on the link below:
Disclaimer: Sure Dividend is not affiliated with S&P Global in any way. S&P Global owns and maintains The Dividend Aristocrats Index. The information in this article and downloadable spreadsheet is based on Sure Dividend’s own review, summary, and analysis of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and other sources, and is meant to help individual investors better understand this ETF and the index upon which it is based. None of the information in this article or spreadsheet is official data from S&P Global. Consult S&P Global for official information.
Nucor’s dividend consistency allows it to stand out in its industry. Steel is a particularly difficult industry due to the cyclical nature of the business model, which makes Nucor’s streak of annual dividend increases even more impressive.
This article will analyze Nucor’s business model, growth prospects, and valuation to determine whether the stock is a buy right now.
Business Overview
Nucor is the largest steel producer in North America after decades of growth. The company is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, and has a market capitalization of nearly $38 billion.
Nucor was not always a leader in the steel manufacturing industry. The company has a long and convoluted corporate history that can be traced back to the company’s founder, Ransom E. Olds (the creator of the Oldsmobile automobile). Olds left his own automotive company over a disagreement with shareholders to form the REO Motor Company, which eventually transformed into the Nuclear Corporation of America – Nucor’s first predecessor.
The company currently operates in three segments: Steel Mills (the largest segment by revenue), Steel Products, and Raw Materials.
Source: Investor Presentation
Nucor manufactures a wide variety of material types, including sheet steel, steel bars, structural formations, steel plates, downstream products, and raw materials. The majority of the company’s production comes from a combination of sheet and bar steel, as has been the case for many years.
Nucor has been successful over the long-term because of a focus on low-cost production. This allows it to maintain profitability during downturns, as well as to produce significant operating leverage during better times. In addition, it has worked to expand its product offerings to new markets, and maintain and grow its market leadership in existing channels.
Growth Prospects
The past several years have been volatile for Nucor and its competitors around the globe. Steel prices have been fluctuating wildly, driven primarily by a supply glut coming out of international markets, specifically China. However, the industry outlook has been quite favorable lately.
Nucor Corporation released its Q4 2025 earnings on January 26th, 2026, with quarterly results showing a mix performance. For the period, the company reported earnings of $378 million, or $1.62 per diluted share, reflecting an increase from Q4 2024’s reported earnings of $287 million, or $1.22 per share. However, adjusted earnings-per-share of $1.73 was below consensus estimates of $1.86 per share.
The company’s total revenue for the fourth quarter reached $7.69 billion, marking an 8.6% improvement from the prior. Annual revenue for 2025 grew 5.7% to $32.49 billion. Higher average costs per ton and lower volumes were offset by higher average realized pricing.
Operationally, mill backlogs of 3.9 million tons at quarter end, up 40% year-over-year and 10% sequentially, provided strong visibility into 2026 demand and underpinned management’s expectation for higher earnings across all three operating segments in the first quarter, with the largest gains anticipated at the steel mills driven by higher volumes and better realized prices.
Management also outlined approximately $2.5 billion of capital expenditures for 2026 to support growth and capacity, reflecting cautious optimism and confidence in near term pricing power and operational improvements despite the recent earnings miss and the need to navigate a still cyclical steel demandenvironment.
Nucor continued its commitment to shareholder returns, repurchasing 5.4 million shares in 2025 and issuing its 211th consecutive quarterly dividend. The company has increased its dividend for 53 consecutive years.
Looking ahead, Nucor expects strong results in 2026 as outlook for end markets improves.
Source: Investor Presentation
Management remains optimistic about improving market conditions, supported by steel-intensive economic trends. CEO Leon Topalian stated “Looking ahead to 2026, we are encouraged by robust demand in several key end markets, historically strong backlogs, and federal policies that support a vibrant domestic steel industry. Our focus remains on execution and generating strong, through‑cycle returns for our shareholders”.
Overall, we expect Nucor to produce earnings-per-share of $12.08 in 2026, which would be a nearly 57% improvement from last year. Earnings growth is projected to be 7.1% annually through 2031.
Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance
Nucor is a manufacturer and distributor of raw materials and steel. Accordingly, the company is a ‘commodity business’ – one in which the single largest differentiator between competitors is price.
Warren Buffett has the following to say about commodity businesses:
“Stocks of companies selling commodity-like products should come with a warning label: ‘Competition may prove hazardous to human wealth.’” – Warren Buffett
Certainly, commodity businesses are not the most defensive businesses, thanks to their cyclicality. This can be seen by looking at Nucor’s performance during the 2007-2009 financial crisis:
2007 adjusted earnings-per-share: $4.98
2008 adjusted earnings-per-share: $6.01
2009 adjusted earnings-per-share: net loss of ($0.94)
2010 adjusted earnings-per-share: $0.42
2011 adjusted earnings-per-share: $2.45
The financial crisis decimated Nucor’s earnings-per-share. The company is one of few Dividend Aristocrats whose earnings turned negative during this tumultuous period. Earnings have only recently caught up to their pre-recession levels, although Nucor has steadily increased its dividend payments.
Valuation & Expected Returns
Nucor is expected to report adjusted earnings-per-share of about $12.08 in fiscal 2026. That puts the price-to-earnings ratio at 13.8, which is above our fair value estimate of 12.0. We remain more cautious than the general market for steel producers, partly due to the volatility of commodity prices.
We see fair value at 12 times earnings, meaning Nucor is overvalued today. If the P/E multiple contracts from 13.8 to 12, it would reduce annual returns by 2.8% over the next five years.
The current yield is 1.3%. While the yield is low, Nucor has a highly impressive dividend history. It has increased its dividend for 53 consecutive years, which also qualifies the company as a Dividend King. The company has paid over 210 consecutive quarterly dividends. That said, the rate of dividend growth has lagged average over the last decade, with most annual increases in the low single-digits on a percentage basis.
Along with our projected EPS growth rate of 7.1%, we see total annual returns of 5.3% over the next five years for Nucor.
Final Thoughts
Nucor’s status as both a Dividend Aristocrat and a Dividend King help it stand out among the highly volatile materials sector. There are just a handful of raw materials businesses that have multi-decade track records of compounding their adjusted earnings-per-share.
Nucor features a long history of annual dividend increases, a strong industry position, and a healthy balance sheet.
However, shares trade above our fair value estimates and total returns are only in the mid-single-digits. Therefore, we rate shares of Nucor as a hold at the current price.
Additionally, the following Sure Dividend databases contain the most reliable dividend growers in our investment universe:
If you’re looking for stocks with unique dividend characteristics, consider the following Sure Dividend databases:
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