Published on April 7th, 2026 by Bob Ciura
The S&P 500 has been historically overvalued (in hindsight) non-stop since 2010 using the Shiller P/E ratio.
The Shiller P/E ratio uses an average of 10 years of earnings for the “E” (earnings) in the P/E ratio to smooth out results and make the metric relevant when earnings temporary turn negative, during recessions.
The historical average Shiller P/E ratio is 17.3. It’s currently at 38.1.
Therefore, the S&P 500 is 120% overvalued according to the Shiller P/E ratio.
When the market is overvalued, investors should look to quality dividend growth stocks, particularly those that are undervalued.
For example, the free high dividend stocks list spreadsheet below has our full list of individual securities (stocks, REITs, MLPs, etc.) with with 5%+ dividend yields.
Fortunately, there are still plenty of strong dividend stocks that are reasonably valued.
The following article will rank 10 dividend stocks based in the U.S., that are currently trading at or below the long-term average Shiller P/E of 17.3.
In addition, they have Dividend Risk Scores of ‘A’ or ‘B’ in the Sure Analysis Research Database, and dividend yields above 2%.
The list is sorted by annual expected returns over the next five years, from lowest to highest.
Table of Contents
Bargain Dividend Stock #10: Hormel Foods (HRL)
Annual Expected Returns: 15.9%
Hormel Foods was founded in 1891 in Minnesota. Since that time, the company has grown into a juggernaut in the food products industry with about $12.3 billion in annual revenue.
The company sells its products in 80 countries worldwide, and its brands include Skippy, SPAM, Applegate, Justin’s, and more than 30 others.
Hormel posted first quarter earnings on February 26th, 2026, and results were mixed. The company posted slightly higher revenue at +1.3% year-over-year, totaling $3.03 billion. That missed expectations by $30 million.
Adjusted earnings-per-share came to 34 cents, which was two cents better than estimates.
Management noted gross profit was weak enough to offset top line growth as higher input costs and logistics expenses were worse than expected.
Adjusted SG&A was comparable to the year-ago period as a percentage of revenue, as higher employee and legal expenses were offset by reductions in marketing and advertising.
Adjusted operating income was $247 million, while adjusted operating margin was 8.2% of revenue for the quarter. Cash flow from operations was $349 million, rising about $26 million year-over-year.
Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on HRL (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):
Bargain Dividend Stock #9: Masco Corporation (MAS)
Annual Expected Returns: 16.1%
Masco Corporation is a world leader in the design, manufacture, and distribution of a wide variety of home improvement and building products.
The company’s leading brands include Behr paint, Hotspring spas, Kichler decorative and outdoor lighting, and Delta faucets, bath, and shower fixtures.
Masco also sells branded decorative and functional hardware and waterproofing products. The company has two reportable segments, including Plumbing Products and Decorative Architectural Products.
On February 10th, 2026, Masco raised its quarterly dividend 3.2% to $0.32. That same day, Masco announced fourth quarter and full year earnings results.
For the quarter, revenue declined 2.2% to $1.79 billion and missed estimates by $25 million. Adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.82 compared unfavorably to $0.89 in the prior year, but this was $0.03 more than expected.
For the year, revenue grew 3% to $7.56 billion while adjusted earnings-per-share of $3.96 were down from $4.10 in 2024.
For the quarter, revenue for the Plumbing Products segment grew 5% to $1.25 billion while Decorative Architectural Products decreased 15% to $545 million. By regions, North America declined 5% while international were up 1%.
Gross margin contracted 80 basis points to 33.9% while the operating margin fell 210 basis points to 13.8%.
The company returned $832 million to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks during the year as well as announced a new $2.0 billion share repurchase authorization.
Masco provided guidance for the year as well, with the company excepting adjusted EPS in a range of $4.10 to $4.30 for 2026.
Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on MAS (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):
Bargain Dividend Stock #8: Becton, Dickinson & Co. (BDX)
Annual Expected Returns: 16.1%
Becton, Dickinson & Co. is a global leader in the medical supply industry. The company was founded in 1897 and has 75,000 employees across 190 countries.
The company generates about $20 billion in annual revenue, with approximately 43% of revenues coming from outside of the U.S.
On November 6th, 2025, BD increased its quarterly dividend 1.0% to $1.05, extending the company’s dividend growth streak to 54 consecutive years.
BD also announced results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, which ended December 31st, 2026. For the quarter, revenue improved 1.5% to $5.25 billion, which topped estimates by $100 million.
Adjusted earnings-per-share of $2.91 compared unfavorably to $3.43 in the prior year, but this was $0.10 more than expected.
For the quarter, Medical Essentials was down 0.6% on a currency neutral basis to $1.6 billion as gains in U.S. Vascular Access Management and the BD Vacutainer portfolio were more than offset by order timing in China.
Connected Care grew 4.7% to $1.13 billion due to growth in Pharmacy Automation and strength in Advanced Patient Monitoring.
BioPharma was up 1% to $429 million due to double-digit growth in Biologics. Interventional climbed 5.1% to $1.33 billion, mostly due to higher demand for the PureWick franchise and Advanced Tissue Regeneration.
Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on BDX (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):
Bargain Dividend Stock #7: Cigna Group (CI)
Annual Expected Returns: 16.2%
Cigna is a leading provider of insurance products and services. The company’s products include dental, medical, disability and life insurance that it provides through employer-sponsored, government-sponsored, and individual coverage plans.
Cigna operates four business segments, including Evernorth, which provides pharmacy services and benefit management, U.S. Medical, which provides commercial and government health insurance, International Markets and Group Disability.
Evernorth contributes ~87% of annual revenues while Cigna Healthcare accounts for much of the rest. Cigna has annual revenues of ~$275 billion.
On February 5th, 2026, Cigna increased its quarterly dividend by 3.3% to $1.56. That same day, Cigna reported fourth quarter and full year results for the period ending December 31st, 2025.
For the quarter, revenue grew 10.4% to $72.5 billion, which was $3.41 billion better than expected. Adjusted earnings-per-share of $8.08 compared favorably to adjusted earnings-per-share of $6.64 in the prior year and was $0.20 ahead of estimates.
For the year, revenue increased 11.2% to $274.9 billion while adjusted earnings-per-share of $29.84 was up from $27.33 in 2024.
Total customer relationships increased 3% to 188.4 million from the same period a year ago. Total pharmacy customers grew 4% to 123.6 million while total medical customers decreased 5% to 18.1 million.
Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on CI (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):
Bargain Dividend Stock #6: PPG Industries (PPG)
Annual Expected Returns: 16.9%
PPG Industries is the world’s largest paints and coatings company. Its only competitors of similar size are Sherwin-Williams and Dutch paint company Akzo Nobel.
On January 27th, 2026, PPG Industries announced fourth quarter and full year results. For the quarter, revenue grew 4.8% to $3.91 billion, which topped estimates by $140 million.
Adjusted earnings-per-share of $1.51 compared unfavorably to $1.61 in the prior year and was $0.07 less than expected.
For the year, revenue grew 0.6% to $15.9 billion while adjusted earnings-per-share of $7.58 was down from $7.87 in 2024. Organic growth was 3% for the quarter and 2% for the year.
For the quarter, revenue for Global Architectural Coatings, which was formerly part of Performance Coatings, grew 8% to $951 million.
Growth was driven by higher prices and a benefit from foreign currency translation. Volume was unchanged and divestitures reduced results by 3%.
Once again, Latin America and Asia Pacific performed well during the period as organic growth improved by a high single-digit figure.
Performance Coatings grew 5% to $1.32 billion as higher prices and favorable currency exchange was only partially offset by a 1% decline in volume.
PPG Industries repurchased ~$100 million worth of shares during Q4 and retired ~$790 million worth of stock during 2025.
Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on PPG (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):
Bargain Dividend Stock #5: UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Annual Expected Returns: 17.8%
UnitedHealth offers global healthcare services to tens of millions of people via a wide array of products. The company has two major reporting segments: UnitedHealth and Optum.
It provides global healthcare benefits to individuals, employers, and Medicare/Medicaid beneficiaries. The Optum segment is a services business that seeks to lower healthcare costs and optimize outcomes for its customers.
UnitedHealth posted fourth quarter and full-year earnings on January 27th, 2026. Adjusted earnings-per-share came to $2.11, which met expectations. Revenue was up more than 12% year-over-year to $113.22 billion, but that missed expectations by $520 million.
The UnitedHealthcare insurance segment saw $87.1 billion to the top line, which was about $400 million ahead of estimates.
The segment’s medical care ratio was 92.4%, much worse than the 89.1% from a year ago. UnitedHealthcare supported 49.8 million customers during the quarter.
The Optum division saw $70.3 billion in revenue, which was driven by pharmacy-benefits division. Optum supported 123 million customers during the quarter. The company’s operating cost ratio was 12.9% on an adjusted basis, flat year-over-year.
The company guided for at least $17.75 in adjusted earnings-per-share for 2026, but guided for revenue that was about $17 billion light of consensus.
Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on UNH (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):
Bargain Dividend Stock #4: CDW Corporation (CDW)
Annual Expected Returns: 17.9%
CDW Corporation is a leading provider of technology solutions for business, government, education, and healthcare sectors.
CDW offers a broad portfolio of products and services, including hardware, software, networking, cloud computing, and IT consulting.
The company serves a wide range of customers, from small businesses to large enterprises, by helping them implement and manage IT infrastructure.
CDW Corporation reported its fourth-quarter earnings on February 4th, 2026. The company reported solid Q4 2025 results with revenue of $5.51B (+6.3% YoY) and EPS of $2.57 (+3.8% YoY, beat by $0.13).
Growth was driven by strong demand in software, devices, and services, with standout segments including Small Business (+18.4%) and Public (+7.0%).
Cash flow remained strong with $1.09B in free cash flow, and the company returned ~$982M to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.
Balance sheet metrics improved slightly, with net debt at $5.01B (down from $5.13B) and liquidity at $2.54B. CDW also raised its quarterly dividend to $0.63/share.
Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on CDW (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):
Bargain Dividend Stock #3: Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)
Annual Expected Returns: 18.2%
Qualcomm develops and sells integrated circuits for use in voice and data communications.
The chip maker receives royalty payments for its patents used in devices that are on 3G, 4G, and 5G networks. Qualcomm has annual sales of ~$44 billion.
On April 9th, 2025, Qualcomm increased its quarterly dividend 4.7% to $0.89, marking the company’s 23rd consecutive year of dividend growth.
On February 4th, 2026, Qualcomm released results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 for the period ending December 28th, 2025. For the quarter, revenue increased 5.4% to $12.3 billion, which was $140 million ahead ofexpectations.
Adjusted earnings-per-share of $3.50 compared favorably to $3.41 in the previous year and was $0.10 above estimates.
For the quarter, revenue for Qualcomm CDMA Technologies, or QCT, grew 5% to $10.6 billion. Handset sales increased 3% to $7.82 billion, Internet of Things was up 9% to $1.69 billion, and Automotive grew 15% to $1.1 billion. Qualcomm Technology Licensing, or QTL, improved 4% to $1.54 billion.
Qualcomm repurchased 15 million shares during the quarter at an average price of ~$153. For the fiscal year, The company repurchased 56 million shares at an average price of ~$173.
The company’s guidance for Q2 2026 calls for revenue in a range of $10.2 billion to $11.0 billion and adjusted earnings-per-share in a range of $2.45 to $2.65.
Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on QCOM (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):
Bargain Dividend Stock #2: Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)
Annual Expected Returns: 18.3%
Broadridge Financial Solutions provides investor communications services and technology-related solutions to the financial services industry.
Broadridge processes millions of trades a day involving trillions of dollars, provides investor communications which reach 75% of North American households, and also manage shareholder voting in ~120 countries. The company generates about $5 billion in annual revenue.
On August 5th, 2025, Broadridge increased its dividend by 11% to $3.90 per share annually, marking 19 years of consecutive increases.
On January 5th, 2026, Broadridge completed the acquisition of Acolin Group Holdco Limited, a leading European provider of cross-border fund distribution and regulatory services, for $70 million.
Broadridge Financial Solutions reported second quarter 2026 results on February 3rd, 2026. Total revenue for the quarter improved 8% to $1,714 million.
Recurring revenue grew 9% year-over-year to $1,070 million from $980 million and made up 62% of total revenue in the second quarter.
Adjusted EPS edged up 2% YoY to $1.59 per share. Leadership reiterated its FY 2026 guidance for 5% to 7% recurring revenue growth, and raised it estimate for adjusted EPS growth to 9% to 12%.
Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on BR (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):
Bargain Dividend Stock #1: McCormick & Co. (MKC)
Annual Expected Returns: 18.7%
McCormick & Company produces, markets, and distributes seasoning mixes, spices, condiments and other products to customers in the food industry. It controls ~20% of the global seasoning and spice market.
On November 18th, 2025, McCormick announced that it was increasing its quarterly dividend 6.7% to $0.48, extending the company’s dividend growth streak to 40 consecutive years.
On January 22nd, 2026, McCormick reported fourth quarter and full year results for the period ending November 30th, 2025. For the quarter, revenue improved 2.8% to $1.85 billion, which matched estimates.
Adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.86 compared to $0.80 in the prior year, but this was $0.02 below expectations.
For the year, revenue grew 2% to $6.8 billion while adjusted earnings-per-share of $2.93 was up slightly up from $2.92 in 2024.
For the quarter, organic growth was 2.1% as volume was up 0.2% and price added 1.9%. The Consumer segment grew 3.1% for the period as volume and mix improved 1.0% while higher prices added 2.1%.
Organic growth for the Americas, EMEA, and Asia/Pacific grew 3.2%, 3.1%, and 1.8%, respectively. Flavor Solutions increased 0.7% from the prior year as a 1.6% contribution from pricing was partially offset by a 0.9% decrease in volume.
Asia/Pacific was up 2.5%, the Americas grew 1.5%, and EMEA was lower by 3.1%. The company stated that trade tensions and inflation would be headwinds going forward.
McCormick provided guidance for 2026 as well. The company expects adjusted earnings-per-share in a range of $3.05 to $3.13 for the year.
Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on MKC (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):
Additional Reading
If you are interested in finding high-quality dividend growth stocks and/or other high-yield securities and income securities, the following Sure Dividend resources will be useful:
High-Yield Individual Security Research
Other Sure Dividend Resources
Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].
