What will the U.S. economy look like in 2024? Three of the world’s largest financial firms have a word for it: normal.
In the past two months, Vanguard, LPL Financial and Goldman Sachs have published “outlook” reports, sketching out their predictions for 2024. And in many ways, they’re surprisingly similar: All forecast a stronger, stabler U.S. economy, recovering from some of the strange problems that have dogged it in the post-pandemic era.
Specifically, the firms expect inflation to keep falling, interest rates to inch downward and bond values to come back up. And though they disagree over the likelihood of a recession, all three see a “soft landing” as a strong possibility.
“In 2024, we believe markets will make a definitive turn to a more recognizable place,” LPL wrote. “Where the last two years had investors focused on inflation, market volatility and striving for a sense of economic balance, we now can expect to see some return to the previous status quo — that is, a less stringent Fed, normalizing inflation and a slower growth environment.”
READ MORE: Ask an advisor: Are we in for a soft landing?
Even the titles of the reports reflect this sense of getting back on track: Vanguard’s study is subtitled “A Return to Sound Money.” LPL’s is “A Turning Point.” Goldman’s, reassuringly, is “The Hard Part Is Over.”
And it’s not just these three firms who foresee this. Callie Cox, an investment analyst at eToro, generally agreed that the economy will be on a more even keel next year.
“It seems like we’re taking a step closer to normal,” Cox said.
Here’s a closer look at what Vanguard, LPL and Goldman predict for 2024: