As the press is wont to say, the large-scale Ukraine drone attacks on four Russian airbases are a developing story. However, as we’ll discuss below, experts like Scott Ritter believe Ukraine must have had assistance from at least the Europeans, particularly the UK (recall their role in the Kerch Bridge truck bomb explosion). Ritter believes the US had no role but that this attack will force Trump’s hand. More immediately, the question is what does Russia do next. My assumption is they still proceed with the Istanbul talks and launch the response shortly thereafter. Even though Russia may have many strike packages worked out, there’s the question of what to do about the presumed European help, and whether they have firm enough evidence in hand to justify strikes outside Ukraine.
Recall further the drone attacks on Putin’s helicopter on a recent visit to Kursk. Russia has been weirdly silent about that, which is now looking like a PR mistake. Both John Helmer and Ray McGovern in a talk on Dialogue Work argued that Russia would use this to test the US, since they do communicate on terrorist matters, as to see what there response was to a Russian query about what they knew when.
But it looks like time for tests has passed. Ritter warned that Russia’s nuclear doctrine would allow for a nuclear strike in response to this attack.
First to news reports. From Anadolu Agency in Ukraine hits over 40 Russian strategic bombers in ‘large-scale’ attack: Media:
Ukraine’s military conducted a “large-scale” attack on Russia, with state media claiming on Sunday that over 40 strategic bomber jets were destroyed in the strike using drones in various regions, including the Siberian region of Irkutsk, which is over 4,000 kilometers away from the border.
The country’s Security Service (SBU) has conducted a “large-scale special operation,” codenamed Spider Web, to destroy Russian bombers, Ukraine’s state news agency Ukrinform reported, citing sources in the SBU.
The report said SBU drones targeted planes used by Moscow in attacks on Ukrainian cities overnight.
More than 40 bombers are currently known to have been hit, the report claimed, adding that preparations for the “operation” took more than a year and a half.
The attack targeted four airfields at once, including Olenya, Ivanovo, Dyagilevo, and Belaya, according to the report.
The Belaya airbase is in Russia’s Siberian region of Irkutsk, whose administrative center is more than 4,300 kilometers (2,670 miles) from the Russia-Ukraine border.
The source went on to describe the “operation” as “extremely complex” from a logistical point of view, with the SBU first transporting the drones to Russia, after which they were hidden under the roof of mobile wooden houses, which were then remotely opened.
Irkutsk Governor Igor Kobzev on Telegram confirmed strikes on his region, saying a military unit in the settlement of Sredny was attacked by drones….
Murmansk Governor Andrey Chibis and Ryazan Governor Pavel Malkov also reported drone attacks in their respective regions. The former, however, called information regarding explosions in the town of Severomorsk “fake.”
The town serves as the main naval base for Russia’s Northern Fleet.
So 40 “strategic bombers” is the Ukraine claim, with reports of at least one attack apparently exaggerated.
Russia has confirmed that its air bases were hit but is characteristically tight lipped about the amount of damage. From BBC:
The Russian Defence Ministry has confirmed in a Telegram post that several military planes have ignited as a result of drone attacks that were initiated from near Olenya air base in the Russian far-north region of Murmansk, and Belaya air base near Irkutsk in Siberia.
Notice all the chatter about using long range missiles like the Taurus looks to have been a psyop, to get Russia’s defenses focused on a very different type of attack.
For reference, charts on Russia’s air force as of 2025, from DWMMA:
From the Financial Times, Ukraine stages audacious attack on airfields deep in Russian territory:
Aircraft were “burning” at the Belaya airfield, located in south-eastern Siberia about 5,500km east of the Ukrainian border; at the Olenya air base on the Kola Peninsula near Murmansk; Dyagilevo air base 200km south-east of Moscow; and Ivanovo airfield, 300km north-east of the Russian capital, the official said.
Video footage filmed by a Ukrainian reconnaissance aircraft and shared by the official appeared to show one Russian airfield in flames and drones attacking several planes. In another video, the voice of Vasyl Malyuk, the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), is heard approving the attacks.
Recall Ukraine has faked footage before but I would assume for now that the claimed strikes are real, and how severe the damage was is yet to be determined.
However, the pink paper does not see this attack, although very impressive and no doubt a monster morale booster for Ukraine, as unlikely to reduce Russia’s ability to prosecute the war in Ukraine. And recall that the Financial Times is very much a Ukraine supporter:
A former Ukrainian officer who runs analytical group Frontelligence Insight said that while the damage would probably not directly influence Russia’s position on the battlefield, it was still significant.
“It does reduce Russia’s strategic capabilities [which] mean the ability to project power globally, the ability to deliver nuclear strikes and overall military posture in Eurasia,” he said. “When [the Russian] general staff plans wars, they don’t look just at one theatre of war or specific part of the front line. They assess the military capabilities and project how to execute the political will of leadership.”
Ukraine’s attack would dent Russia’s “geopolitical confidence”, he added.
I don’t buy the “geopolitical confidence” claim. Russia is still considerably outproducing the Collective West in pretty much every armament category that matters, save naval assets. This now gives them the justification that they did not have before, to take all of Ukraine if necessary to bring thme to heel.
There is plenty of glee on Twitter:
BREAKING: Ukraine unleashes its biggest strike on Russian Air Force yet.~ Drones smuggled deep into Russian territory hit strategic airbases – up to 40 AIRCRAFT reportedly DESTROYED.
This marks a bold escalation. How will Russia react?pic.twitter.com/fanAFjIqHz
— The Analyzer (News Updates🗞️) (@Indian_Analyzer) June 1, 2025
This will be in textbooks.Ukraine secretly delivered FPV drones and wooden mobile cabins into Russia. The drones were hidden under the roofs of the cabins, which were later mounted on trucks.
At the signal, the roofs opened remotely. Dozens of drones launched directly from the… pic.twitter.com/sJyG3WyYYI
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 1, 2025
All of russia needs to look like this picturesque scene from the Belaya Airbase in Irkutsk Oblast. pic.twitter.com/LqzZDH6ZoK
— UAVoyager🇺🇦 (@NAFOvoyager) June 1, 2025
Not a surprise:
🚨⚡ URGENT ALERT: 🇷🇺🔥🇺🇦Russian President Vladimir Putin convenes EMERGENCY Security Council meeting! 🚨 Major response imminent rumors of possible NUCLEAR escalation in hours! 😱 #Russia #Ukraine #BreakingNews pic.twitter.com/feY92jKFnX
— NewsDaily🪖🚨🪖 (@XNews24_7) June 1, 2025
To put it politely, Putin’s restraint now looks to have been unwise, but these events are path dependent. Russia has been running a coalition war, since it needs the economic support of key allies, most of all China, which has never been keen about Russia invading Ukraine even if it accepted the lack of other options. I don’t see how Russia does not take the gloves off now. One move is to unleash its missiles and take out “decision centers” as in Kiev and the electrical grid in most if not all of Western Ukraine. Russia now needs to prostrate Ukraine.
Scott Ritter, who admittedly likes to paint in bright colors, says it would be completely consistent with Russian nuclear doctrine to make a nuclear attack. From his post, Playing With Fire:
Operation Spiderweb, the largescale assault on critical Russian military infrastructure directly related to Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrence by unmanned drones, has demonstrably crossed Russia’s red lines when it comes to triggering a nuclear retaliation…
Operation Spiderweb is a covert direct-action assault on critical Russian military infrastructure and capabilities directly related to Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrent capabilities…
This would be the equivalent of a hostile actor launching drone strikes against US Air Force B-52H bombers stationed at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota and at Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, and B-2 bombers stationed at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri.
The timing of Operation Spiderweb is clearly designed to disrupt peace talks scheduled to take place in Istanbul on June 2.
First and foremost, one must understand that it is impossible for Ukraine to seriously prepare for substantive peace talks while planning and executing an operation such as Operation Spiderweb…
Moreover, this attack could not have occurred without the consent of Ukraine’s European partners, in particular Great Britain, France and Germany….
Unknown is the extent to which President Trump, who has been pushing for successful peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, was knowledgeable of the Ukrainian actions, including whether he approved of the action in advance..
How Russia responds to this latest Ukrainian action is yet unknown..
But this much is clear: Ukraine could not have carried out Operation Spiderweb without the political approval and operational assistance of its western allies….
Russia has in the past responded to provocations by Ukraine and its western allies with a mixture of patience and resolve.
Many have interpreted this stance as a sign of weakness….
The extent to which Russia can continue to show the same level of restraint as in the past is tested by the very nature of the attack—a massive use of conventional weapons which struck Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrence force, causing damage…
We have reached an existential crossroads in the SMO…
President Trump, who has been claiming to support a peace process between Russia and Ukraine, must now decide as to where the United States stands considering these developments…
Ukraine, not Russia, represents an existential threat to humanity.
NATO, not Russia, is responsible for encouraging Ukraine to behave in such a reckless manner.
So, too, is the United States. The contradictory statements made by US policy makers regarding Russia provide political cover for Ukraine and its NATO enablers to plan and execute operations like Operation Spiderweb…
But it is Trump himself who must decide the fate of the world….
Choose Ukraine and trigger a nuclear war.
Choose Russia and save the world.
We don’t and probably won’t know soon if at all how many bombers were irreparably damaged. That will play into Russia’s calculus of how to respond. But Russia clearly has to at least aggressively increase the tempo of the war and defeat Ukraine sooner rather than later. Irrespective of the military logic, the Russia public will be seeing red.
The very ugly question is what does Russia do if it concludes the US had a hand in this attack.
