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Home Cryptocurrency

Did Bitcoin just clear the leverage overhang?

by FeeOnlyNews.com
4 months ago
in Cryptocurrency
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Did Bitcoin just clear the leverage overhang?
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Bitcoin (BTC) forced the closure of $740 million in leveraged positions on Oct. 21 as the price swung from $110,552 to $114,019 before retreating toward $108,000, executing a classic short-squeeze followed by long liquidations that cleared excessive derivatives exposure.

Data from Coinglass shows $435.63 million in long positions and $304.64 million in shorts eliminated during the 24 hours.

When Bitcoin broke through the $111,500 liquidity zone, perpetual shorts faced cascading margin calls, reaching up to $114,000.

As upward momentum waned, long positions that had chased the breakout were liquidated during the decline, a pop-and-flush pattern characteristic of leverage resets.

Approximately $320 million in unwinds occurred around the dip to $108,000, with variations across data providers depending on the measurement window.

Funding rates entering the session sat near neutral following the prior week’s selloff, while futures open interest rebuilt toward $26 billion.

Open interest across futures and perpetuals held relatively stable through the volatility. CoinMarketCap data shows that futures open interest registered $3.47 billion, with a 0.91% daily increase, while perpetuals showed $969.71 billion, with a 0.02% decline.

Funding rates compressed from positive 0.005% to 0.004%, reflecting reduced willingness to pay premiums for leveraged long exposure after the round-trip price action eliminated speculative positions on both sides.

Derivatives neutrality signals a cleaner setup

The liquidation sequence left funding rates roughly flat and open interest lower than recent peaks, removing the overhang of crowded positioning that amplifies volatility.

Confirmation of a genuine reset requires several observable conditions over the following 24 to 48 hours.

Open interest (OI) should remain below prior peaks rather than immediately rebuilding through fresh leverage. OI-weighted funding rates need to center near zero percent across major venues, indicating balanced positioning between longs and shorts.

Rising spot trading volume as a share of total Bitcoin activity would strengthen the reset thesis, showing price discovery driven by spot demand rather than derivatives positioning.

CME basis behavior provides additional confirmation, while exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows turning net-flat to positive after periods of outflows would add support.

According to Farside Investors’ data, spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $214.3 million of inflows as of press time, with IBIT and five other funds to be included in the tally. The move reverses four consecutive days of outflows totaling over $1 billion.

Bitcoin’s ability to sustain moves above $110,000 depends on whether spot demand can absorb the reset positioning.

The $5,541 intraday range on Oct. 21 cleared speculative excess, but directional conviction requires spot volume to increase relative to perpetual and futures activity.

Monitoring open interest stability, funding rate behavior, and the perpetual-spot basis over the next two days will clarify whether the liquidation wave established a foundation for sustained movement or merely paused before another volatility cycle begins.

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