Bitcoin struggles to break higher as speculative interest dries up

Bitcoin surged to an all-time high last month, bolstered by growing institutional demand and a wave of Wall Street adoption.

However, the rally has since slowed, and BTC has been stuck in a narrow range. It even briefly fell under $100,000 amid geopolitical tensions involving Israel, Iran, and the US.

While Bitcoin’s price quickly recovered to around $106,000 after reports signaled a de-escalation, many in the crypto community expected continued upside momentum to push its value to a new ATH. However, on-chain data shows long-term holders are selling into the weakening market momentum, which is hindering another upward run.

Long-term holders selling

One major factor keeping Bitcoin in a tight range is the scale of realized profits.

Glassnode reported that over $650 billion in profits have already been realized in this cycle, surpassing totals from the last bull run. Most of that came from three major selling waves, and analysts believe the market is now in a cooling phase after the latest one.

According to the report:

“Currently, the market appears to be in a cool-down phase after the third significant wave of profit-taking, indicating that while large gains have been secured, momentum is now easing as realized profitability tapers off.”

On-chain data from Bitcoin analyst James Check confirmed that much of the selling has been driven by long-term holders, particularly those who have held Bitcoin for at least three years.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Funds, also stated that Bitcoin’s price stagnation around $100,000 since January is mainly due to long-term holders selling after the ETF launch.

Edwards also pointed out that recent purchases by 6-month+ holders, possibly institutional investors like Bitcoin Treasury companies, have absorbed a significant portion of the sell-offs, suggesting a market flywheel effect.

He wrote:

“This dynamic is now starting to appear in the onchain data, and we can see that 6 month+ BTC holders have skyrocketed over that 2 month period. The amount of BTC acquired in the last 2 months by this cohort has completely consumed all of the BTC unloaded by LTHs over the last 1.5 years.”

Weakening market momentum

Aside from the significant selling activities, Glassnode also pointed out that another reason for Bitcoin’s price performance is due to its weakening on-chain volume.

According to the company, BTC’s on-chain volume has dropped roughly 32% over recent weeks, from a $76 billion high to around $52 billion. Unlike previous rallies, the move to $111,000 didn’t bring a spike in trading activity. Spot volume sits at just $7.7 billion—well below previous cycle peaks.

It noted:

“This divergence further underscores the lack of speculative intensity, highlighting the market’s hesitancy and reinforcing the consolidation narrative.”

Moreover, the futures markets have also shown signs of fatigue.

While leveraged traders remained active during the recent $111,000 move, the appetite for risk appears to be fading.

In addition, the annualized funding rates and 3-month rolling basis have decreased since the Q1 2025 high. This indicates a shift toward defensive strategies like cash-and-carry arbitrage or short positions, rather than aggressive long bets.

Considering this, Bitcoin may stay range-bound because of the reduced speculative pressure and weaker trading signals until a fresh catalyst emerges.