Ether (ETH) fell to $2,800 on Monday, failing to hold $3,000 as surging expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike unnerved the market. Meanwhile, technicals and onchain data sent mixed signals on Ether’s ability to buck the downtrend.
Key points:
Ethereum price fell 5.5% on Monday, dropping below $3,000 again amid Bank of Japan rate-hike fears.
Bulls need a sustained break above $3,200 for a strong recovery, while breaching $2,800 would invalidate the macro bullish trend.
Ether’s MVRV Z-Score approaches the accumulation zone, signaling a local bottom forming.
Ether’s price is sandwiched between two key levels
Ether’s 18% recovery from a $2,620 low reached on Nov. 21 was curtailed by selling around the $3,000 psychological barrier.
This “was a major support that has currently flipped to resistance,” said pseudonymous analyst That Martini Guy ₿ in an X post on Friday.
Related: ETH may reclaim $3.2K soon, based on low stablecoin yields: Santiment
Note that this is where the 50-week (yellow wave) and the 100-week (blue wave) moving averages appear to converge (see chart below), reinforcing the significance of this level.
“If $ETH breaks above this level and stays there, we should see the price rally back into the mid $ 3000’s throughout December!” That Martini Guy ₿ added.
The Glassnode cost basis distribution heatmap revealed another area of resistance, located further up, between $3,150 and $3,230, where about 5.1 million ETH was acquired.
On the downside, the ETH/USD pair traded above a key support area around $2,800, where 3.6 million ETH were previously purchased.
ETH has a “good hold of the key support area for now,” said analyst Daan Crypto Trades in a recent X post, referring to the $2,800-$2,850 support zone.
The altcoin could see a “very clear invalidation if it drops below these local lows,” the analyst wrote, adding:
“That is a key area to defend for the bulls.”
On the upside, Daan Crypto Trades said, rising above $3,350 would see the ETH price get closer to the range high at $4,000.
“$2,850 and $3,350 are the levels that matter in this area.”
As Cointelegraph reported, buyers are expected to fiercely defend the $2,800-$2,600 support level, while bears are mounting a defense at the 20-day EMA around $3,100.
Ethereum ETF inflows suggest bullish sentiment
Ether’s ability to stem against a deeper correction was reinforced by inflows into US-based Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Ether ETFs finished Thanksgiving week with $312 million in inflows, hinting that the worst of the institutional crypto sell-off may be over.
Meanwhile, global Ethereum exchange-traded products (ETPs) recorded $309.1 million of inflows last week, reinforcing persistent demand from institutional investors.
However, Ether’s ability to stay above $2,800 and reclaim $3,000 may be curtailed by a lack of network demand, as shown by the decline in Ethereum network fees, data from Nansen shows.
Ethereum chain fees totaled $2.68 million over the past seven days, representing a 54% decrease from the previous week. By comparison, fees on Solana rose by 2%, while those on Tron remained relatively unchanged, increasing by 0.4%.
The number of active addresses on Ethereum’s base layer climbed by 20% over the same period, while transaction count increased by 4%. This suggested that increased user engagement could eventually lead to increased onchain demand for ETH, driving its price higher.
Ether’s MVRV Z-Score hints at a local bottom
Ether’s MVRV Z-Score, a key onchain metric used to identify market tops and bottoms, is nearing the historical accumulation zone (the green line in the chart below), strengthening the argument that ETH may be forming its local bottom.
The last time Ether’s MVRV Z-Score dipped to the current level around 0.30 was in June, after a 25% price drawdown. This coincided with a local market bottom at $2,100 and preceded a multimonth rally, with the ETH/USD rising 134% to its $4,950 all-time high.
As Cointelegraph reported, most Ethereum valuation models indicate the top altcoin is undervalued, projecting ETH prices above $4,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
