Anglogold Ashanti (AU) stock is up 140% in 2025, outperforming the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) by a significant margin. The stock has one of the most generous dividend policies among its peers, and its mammoth 2025 rally is far from over, as we’ll discuss in this article.
To be sure, I have been bullish on gold (GCZ25) – and by extension gold mining companies, which are a leveraged play on gold – for quite some time now. The bullishness has paid off well as both gold and gold mining companies have performed incredibly well this year. Specifically, AU stock has only built on its YTD gains since the last time I covered the company.
While the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index ($DOWI) soared to a record high last week after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish pivot at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, a disconnect has emerged between the stock markets and economic indicators, particularly those concerning the labor market. In light of this divergence, gold could be a perfect hedge, and the precious metal has soared (along with broader markets) for a reason this year.
While the structural outlook for gold looks positive amid the central bank buying spree, near unsustainable fiscal positions in many major economies, and structural geopolitical tensions, there are a few reasons to be tactically bullish in the short term. These include
Monetary policy easing: Powell has signaled rate cuts, and a 25-basis point cut at next month’s Fed meeting looks like the most likely outcome. Since gold is a non-interest-bearing asset, rate cuts are theoretically positive for the yellow metal.
Trump-Fed Tussle: On more than one occasion, most recently during his Jackson Hole speech, Powell has said that the Fed works without any political interference. However, the tussle between the Fed and President Donald Trump looks set to intensify after he removed Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook, who has questioned the president’s “authority to do so.” Central bank independence is a hallmark of all modern economies, and any signs to the contrary are negative for markets and Treasuries, while being a positive for gold.
Tariff threats: The U.S. has issued draft rules putting 50% tariffs on India for the country’s purchase of Russian oil. Trump has also threatened China with 200% tariffs if the country curbs exports of rare earths. Additionally, the president has talked about higher tariffs on countries that have a digital tax targeting U.S. tech giants. While markets don’t really expect Trump to walk the talk (at least in entirety), the tariff threats are back, which are supportive of gold.
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