It has been a good recovery, a smart recovery, as we have seen in the benchmarks as well as the broader markets. However, the broader markets are outperforming the benchmarks. What is your take on the markets at present?Rohit Srivastava: It is possible that there is some more upside in the near term, given that we have built positive momentum, crossed some key moving averages for the Nifty, and could head closer to around 25,160. That is not a big move from here—it’s just about 130 points. My sense is that we may not be completely out of the woods yet, considering the issues we are still facing. The markets could continue to consolidate, or we may even see one more leg lower sometime later this month or into September, before we can say that the worst is over. But surely, we are getting closer to the end of this phase.
We are at levels much higher than in April, so things have definitely improved quite a bit. However, the improvement has not been across the board. Over the past 12 months, with the market gyrating both ways, weaker players or stocks unable to deliver growth at their valuations have been shaken out. So, the market has somewhat cleaned up on the growth-valuation front.
That said, there are still segments of the market that are growing, which is why earnings growth continues to be stronger in the mid- and small-cap space compared to large-caps. Broadly speaking, the longer-term bull market could take full shape after September. Until then, we should remain open to some more volatility. In other words, I am not looking at a runaway rally immediately, but yes, there may still be some short-term upside left.
Having said that, you’ve made it very clear we are still not out of the woods. And yes, you’re right—over the last year, we have not seen much money being made in the market. But as you said, there has been a clear filter in terms of growth and valuation, both for stocks and market participants. You also mentioned that a clear, long-term bull rally will be seen post-September. So, what levels are we talking about? I know it’s too soon to talk about Diwali and Nifty levels right now, but since you are hinting at a full-fledged bull run during that time, what exactly are the levels we should be looking at?Rohit Srivastava: You need to use some imagination here. If we only talk about Diwali, it wouldn’t be a fair picture, because the number could be plus or minus anything. We could simply say a new all-time high—maybe 27,000.But when I talk about the longer-term bull run, I am referring to something similar to what happened between March 2023 and September 2024—an 18-month period when the indices moved up meaningfully and stocks performed even better. Another such phase could emerge.A lot of steps have been taken to make that possible, and we should think in terms of the period from around September–October 2025 through 2026–27. Over that one-and-a-half to two-year horizon, we should be prepared for significantly higher levels. The indices could compound at 15% per annum, which would put us in a new zone of 30,000–34,000–35,000. That is very much achievable if you keep an 18-month view from here.So, investors need to invest with that perspective in mind, and they will surely see much better returns.
