Edited excerpts from a chat:
Nifty ended the week around 1.3% higher, but do you think Friday’s intra-day volatility signals that bulls are weakening? Or is 25,000 still possible next week?
Standard deviation studies are indeed pointing to 25,000 and beyond. Friday appeared more volatile because the strong up-move early in the day—marking a new 7-day high—failed to sustain amid rejection trades. However, the close near 24,350 mirrored that of the past six sessions. This allows us to retain upside expectations for Monday’s start. That said, any sign of slipping below 24,280 could indicate emerging weakness, though a break below 23,850 would be required to validate a move toward 23,670–23,460. The odds of such a decline seem low at this point, but we remain cautious.
Defence stocks were among the biggest winners amid rising tensions with Pakistan. Will the rally sustain?
Defence stocks, which have been on the rise since last week, showed signs of weakness as the week progressed, with the average RSI topping out at 68. The slowdown in momentum suggests profit booking may continue early next week. However, the weekly average RSI near 60 still supports a bullish setup. The best strategy would be to enter on expected pullbacks. Stocks like Data Patterns, Mazagon Dock, GRSE, HAL, BDL, and Cochin Shipyard could be good bets on dips. BEL may outperform.
Sonata Software was the biggest weekly gainer among BSE500 stocks. Do you expect profit booking ahead?
A multi-week consolidation breakout signals potential for the uptrend to extend toward 490–530. The question is not whether to re-enter, but where. Friday’s close below Thursday’s low indicates exhaustion in the near-term uptrend. We prefer buying on dips with a stop-loss below 370. However, if the dips are cut short and the stock swiftly closes above 456, risk capital may be allocated.
While the Nifty has recovered half its losses for the year, the Nifty Smallcap 250 index is still struggling. What do the charts suggest?
On Friday, 62.4% of small-cap constituents closed above their 50-day SMA, compared to 70.8% the previous Friday. Similar declines were seen with the 20-day SMA: 47.6% versus 66.8%. This highlights the index’s ongoing struggle. The weekly chart shows an evening star pattern, reflecting weakness, but the appearance of a doji last week suggests cautious bargain hunting. A further 2–3% dip could improve risk appetite.
Top trading ideas for the week:
Sumitomo Chemical (SUMICHEM) – LTP: Rs 524View: BuyTarget: Rs 565Stop-loss: Rs 493After reversing from April highs, the stock found buyers near the horizontal support zone of Rs 500, from where a reversal is underway. The MACD histogram signals exhaustion, and the SMI oscillator is nearing a crossover above zero, indicating a bullish shift. Expect a move to Rs 565 in the coming weeks. Maintain a stop-loss below Rs 493.
Global Health (MEDANTA) – LTP: Rs 1,202
View: BuyTarget: Rs 1,270Stop-loss: Rs 1,164After a decline since mid-April, the stock has formed a Dragonfly Doji on the daily chart, accompanied by signs of MACD exhaustion—hinting at a potential reversal. We expect a move toward Rs 1,270 in the next few days. Maintain a stop-loss below Rs 1,164.
